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SeanInWayland

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  1. SeanInWayland

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Yes, no different than random articles posted here containing similar kinds of information about warming/melting/drought events. It's typically used as a bull**** method of indirect argumentation, as is what I cited. I presume you're not saying someone shouldn't criticize that website because there are other silly people out there engaging in similar tactics but with a different axe to grind, right? Bull**** is bull****, and should be labelled as such. I would encourage you also to call out the obvious examples of it that you clearly are thinking of, instead of just starting off with your "whatabout this!" statement, that gives the strong impression that you seem to think I am willing to put up with all other kinds of nonsense and only call this out because of some particular bent I have. That's not a particularly effective way of convincing me, or anyone for that matter. I typically don't post in here because I'm not nearly as well-versed in the details of climate science the way many here are, but it doesn't take a meteorologist to assess the quality of all meteorologically-related material. Marshaling a set of facts doesn't in itself make for a useful exposition without some analysis or thesis to tie those facts together. I frankly didn't see any at that site, and I found it's constant grandiose references to the sunspot cycle as some uber-important driver of climate conditions on the ground to be off-putting. I would be less off-put if the author simply stated his position, and then offered a cogent argument as to why he thinks it's right. You seem to be passionate about this topic, so let me offer something I'm hoping we agree on. The Earth's climate is complex, and your recent posts seem to indicate you feel the same way. Discerning the truth abut a complex system is hard enough, but it becomes doubly or triply hard when people spew out poorly-constructed arguments advocating some particular viewpoint and demand that we spend the time to evaluate in detail their claims. Frankly, that's just impossible because it's easy to spin out lots of bull**** (which often contains many facts, a good sprinkling of them is critical to the effective bull****ter) but much harder to paw through it all and explain in detail to someone why it's bull****. That's why I posted my warning about that site after someone posted what I now realize was a clickbait message to entice people to go look at it. It has all the markers of someone spewing the kind of time-wasting bull**** I described above. If the person who runs that site wants to get people to take the time to consider their arguments, they should present them in a way that says they can be taken seriously, and trusted not to be engaging in bogus argumentation. I don't think that is too much to ask.
  2. SeanInWayland

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Here's another "good read" from that site: https://electroverse.net/arctic-antarctic-sea-ice-now-at-historic-high-levels/ It's an amusing mix of anecdotal "hey, somebody just had a large/early/late/historic snowstorm" articles, mixed with simple cut-and-paste from select journal articles implying that the earth is cooling, or ice sheets are expanding, etc., etc., and without any real context or analysis. By the way, whoever runs that site seems to have an idee fixe about the sunspot cycle and its effect on climate.
  3. SeanInWayland

    March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc

    Yeah, I'm on top of a hill here in Wayland and we're getting pounded. 12" new now.
  4. SeanInWayland

    January 4-6 Coastal Bomb Observations/Nowcast

    Based on the pictures, I'm really worried about all the underground infrastructure in or around the Seaport. There are numerous underground parking garages there, for example, not to mention the T stops. The one under the Seaport hotel has me particularly worried (but there's no shortage of others). Also, just wondering what it would take to get water into the harbor tunnels--I'm guessing that's better protected than those parking garages, but I don't really know.
  5. SeanInWayland

    Major Hurricane Irma

    Yeah, that string of small resorts on Meads Bay between Malliouhana and the Viceroy looks to be especially vulnerable. Low-lying, and on a beach facing the open Atlantic.
  6. SeanInWayland

    Model Mayhem VI

    My joke meter must be off, sorry about that. Honestly, religion was not on my mind when I penned that. I was thinking more of Hawking's famous essay on quantum mechanics and black holes http://www.hawking.org.uk/does-god-play-dice.html
  7. SeanInWayland

    Model Mayhem VI

    You're conflating two very distinct things. The "butterfly effect" relates to the sensitivities of certain nonlinear dynamical systems to very small perturbations in their subsequent evolution. The degree to which the solutions of any given dynamical system are sensitive to small perturbations, is largely what chaos theory is about. I'm thinking your comment about there being chaos in the atmosphere most likely fits with the idea that the current solutions are really sensitive to small perturbations. It's purely a deterministic thing, though. "Future outcomes [not] determined yet" goes back to the basic question of whether God does indeed play dice with the universe, and would seem to be independent of the amount of "chaos" present. Either he does or he doesn't. Current answer unknown, at least by me.
  8. SeanInWayland

    Sunday SWFE..Monday Coastal?

    OK, understood. If you absolutely have to come into BOS, based on what people (who know far more about meteorology than I) are saying here, I would come in tomorrow. The weather conditions will likely be better on late Monday afternoon but I would be afraid of getting caught up in flight delay madness as the airlines scramble to make up for the hundreds of delayed and cancelled flights from late Sunday night and earlier Monday. Do you have the option of switching to a NYC airport, say JFK? If so, I would come in tomorrow, head to Grand Central, and Amtrak it. PS After looking at some of the guidance, definitely come in tomorrow rather than Monday if you have the choice.
  9. SeanInWayland

    Sunday SWFE..Monday Coastal?

    That's an option--I've only done that once, it worked fine as my wife picked me up at the University Ave station on 128. That would also work well if you need to pick up your car at Logan or close by given where South Station is. To be honest, most times I've rented a car. And were I doing it today, I'd be really tempted to Uber/Lyft it, though their dynamic pricing might bite one in the ass during a snowstorm.
  10. SeanInWayland

    Sunday SWFE..Monday Coastal?

    I'll echo my earlier advice, Prof. C. Change your flight to get into T F Green instead, and you should be OK. I've utilized this trick numerous times and always been glad I did.
  11. SeanInWayland

    Sunday SWFE..Monday Coastal?

    Both are risky. Flying into PVD and getting home or getting to Logan (depending on your situation) seems like a much safer way to go on either day.
  12. SeanInWayland

    January 7th/8th Storm Discussion

    My guess is that storm patterns just go through a multi-year cycle of their own for reasons not completely understood. I remember one of the Albany mets talking about Miller A storms, and saying they used to be commonplace but then they kind of went away, and he hadn't seen a true one since the early '60s.
  13. SeanInWayland

    January 7th/8th Storm Discussion

    The weird thing is that when I was growing up just west of Albany (late 60s-early 80s), there seemed to be no shortage of snowstorms. About the only really snow-diminished winter I can remember was 79-80. Moved to Boston full-time in 85 and all the storms seemed to shift with me. Can't remember the last time my parents said they got walloped by a big storm.
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