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78Blizzard

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About 78Blizzard

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KOWD
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Westwood, MA
  • Interests
    WINTER WEATHER
    HURRICANES

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  1. 78Blizzard

    SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

    Your time is coming: "Nhc suggests intensification before the et transition starts prior to making landfall near Halifax as a strong category 1 or low end category 2 hurricane. Et is expected to continue until the storm moves into the Gulf of St. Lawrence while remaining at hurricane strength until it passes Northern Newfoundland." https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/technical_discussion_e.html
  2. 78Blizzard

    September Weather Discussion 2019

    Those clouds are the forerunners of Dorian. They reach all the way to NS now.
  3. 78Blizzard

    September Weather Discussion 2019

    I closed the pool down yesterday. We may get an 80ºF day next week, but with night time temps in the 50's, the water cools down very quickly along with the lower sun angle.
  4. 78Blizzard

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    After moving a few hundred miles over the last 4-5 days or so, Dorian will really be motoring over the next 5 days, ending up as a remnant low just SE of the southern tip of Greenland. Some models still have it hitting or skirting Nova Scotia as a full blown hurricane or strong tropical storm, not as a hybrid.
  5. 78Blizzard

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    Actually, it is expected to intensify after it passes HSE as it heads toward Nova Scotia. The 0z NAM had the pressure dropping around 18 mb as it passes well SE of the Cape.
  6. 78Blizzard

    SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

    0z NAM shows a strengthening system after it passes HSE until SE of the Cape. If extrapolated, it looks to turn slightly toward the NNE into NS. The 18z GFS also showed Dorian strengthening but not as much.
  7. 78Blizzard

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    The HWRF also shows it making the turn now. In fact, most models show it N of Grand Bahama Island. The Euro shows it getting halfway across the island and then turning WNW. If it gets past that point and is still moving west, look out.
  8. 78Blizzard

    SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

    Way west this run- only 100 mi off the elbow. Probably extratropical by then, although still near hurricane strength. ACK with close to 24 hrs of tropical storm winds.
  9. 78Blizzard

    SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

    Can someone explain why when the GFS or many of the other models initialize, that the pressure reading is nowhere near the actual? It shows Dorian strengthening while it is more likely to be weakening as it moves north, especially from where the intensity is now.
  10. 78Blizzard

    SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

    Here are a few samples. https://twitter.com/Brendeaaa/status/1168221965473210368/video/1
  11. 78Blizzard

    SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

    Outer rain bands approaching West Palm Beach area. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
  12. 78Blizzard

    SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

    Most models, including the hurricane models, show the turn already beginning by now, with the eye going N of Grand Bahama Island. Only the Euro had the eye going across the island part way, but turning NW before getting to Freeport. Then we have the modeled stall to consider around Freeport. If that doesn't happen, then all bets are off. I have relatives in Naples, so they look fairly safe there.
  13. 78Blizzard

    SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

    This thing had better not continue westward from Freeport or there will be a lot of panicking by not just the public, but also the NHC. It's only 70 miles from Freeport to West Palm Beach. The average track error is 70 miles in this time frame.
  14. 78Blizzard

    SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

    I have never seen such general model agreement on the track going out 5-6 days, although some of the hurricane models are a bit further west.
  15. 78Blizzard

    SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

    What's really hilarious are the little run to run differences in the GFS track at 5-6 days out. If this were January, this run would show a cutter after an OTS on the previous run, lol. I know winter dynamics are different than early September dynamics, but still.
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