vortex95

We now have the lowest Atlantic ACE season-to-date -- 4.4 units as of 9/6. This is the lowest in the satellite era, and prior, since 1941. Given TC records are more incomplete as you go further back, this record today is even more outstanding, as historical seasonal ACE, prior to the satellite era especially, is too low.

Want to see an unexpected large-scale difference from other years going into a very strong El Nino? The area above 80N barely got above freezing this summer. See here: https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php No other summer since records began in 1958 has been this cold, and I looked at other very strong El Ninos, and all got to a mean of 1 C at least for the summer. Since this is an avg over large area, 1 C is a significant in this case. So this begs the question, how could this impact things as to what we typically expect in a very strong El Nino? Such as <gasp!> the upcoming winter for the CONUS? Is the AO, and by extension, the NAO, impacted? I often wondered if we could get a wicked -NAO during very strong El Nino, what would come out of that? @CoastalWx likely would come up w/ this scenario. "Well, we saw what happened in the epic -NAO in 2009-10. Hmm, since the Mid-Atlantic got crushed, and much of New England missed out, maybe that means the STJ active and warmth pushed N, and the cold pressing more S, that would make SNE in "snow weenie heaven!!!!" I could also add in @ineedsnow here as to thinking that! Also, since I am not an uber winter weenie, is there any actual difference between the AO and NAO? You look at NOAA here, and I don't see anything. The graph looks a lot like NAO phases. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-variability-arctic-oscillation

That's good historical info. The only item I would as in, is "how strong was El Nino in those years?" Strength of El Nino can be a big factor. And the presence of El Nino is not always a "slam dunk." The type of El Nino is important. Modoki El Nino, which has the highest SST anomalies in cntrl tropical Pacific rather than the ern, that can lead to an epic season, like 2004! Want to see an unexpected large-scale difference from other years going into a very strong El Nino. The area above 80N barely got above freezing this summer. See here: https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php No other summer since records began in 1958 has been this cold, and I look at other very strong El Ninos, and all got to a mean of 1 C at least for the summer. Since this is an avg over large area, 1 C is a significant in this case. So this begs the question, how could this impact things as to what we typically expect in a very strong El Nino? It might make no difference overall, but what about on more regional levels? And I am not just talking about Atlantic TCs later season, but other things like the upcoming winter for the CONUS? Is the AO, and by extension, the NAO, impacted? How that sets up or its phase in a given winter has big implications for NAMR!

Another "dud season" record. 4.4 ACE units through 9/6 for the Atlantic is the lowest season-to-date ACE in the satellite era, and prior, going back to 1941. Given TC records are more incomplete as you go further back, this record today is even more outstanding, as historical seasonal ACE, prior to the satellite era especially, is mostly too low.

I had never heard of lantern files until now. Are they endemic to New England? Worse than stink bugs?

@CoastalWx rejoicing?

For the next generation GOES satellites (2032), the plan is to have hyperspectral sounding capabilities onboard. This is far better than the current GOES sounder sensor, and I think will revolutionize mesoscale forecasting, and may make RAOBs obsolete. In a 512x512 km area, it is said it can take over 16,000 soundings every 11 sec!

Not good, but I do find GFS MOS is ok, better than the NAM MOS of the time. NAM does do better in CAD situations though. But the RRFS is coming, much to @CoastalWx's dismay! LOL. Which reminds me, does MOS exist in any form for the HRRR/ECMWF and other models?

The deepening rate of the storm was incredible. BOS recorded min pressure of 965 mb. I think 955 mb is the record non-TC pressure for New England, set at BID 3/7/1932. Bliz of 93 peaked at 960 mb over Mid-Atlantic and filled a bit to 963 once over SNE.

DCA averages 14" per winter. GYDLH! If you thought the 4 years leading up to Jan 2026 were hell? You have no idea. Didn't bother me at all. I long ago "got my fill." After the 1992-93 to 1996-97 period? I recall saying after the Bliz of 97, "I will *never* complain about a crappy snow winter ever again!" That how impressed I was w/ that blizzard as it hit all the high notes for an absolute classic (meteorologically and otherwise),. @CoastalWx I would have thought at least he'd take some cues from that, given how he proudly likes to show off that selfie of himself standing proud in Hyde Park that next day! And then i recall he could not stopping talking about PD2 and the Bliz of 05 (I was shown the BOX radar loop from that more times than I needed to at work!). But really, what should have sealed the deal for him and "excised all demons?" The megablitz Jan-Feb 2015. Hands down. A truly exceptional event/period, and he lived and and loved it, as many others did. Not that you can't still enjoy a big snowstorm and weenie out, but take them as they come, and avoid getting upset when things are inactive. @CoastalWx is old enough to recall how lousy the 80s and early 90s were for snow in SNE. He even had to wait longer than I did b/c he got STIFFED royally in Brockton in the Dec 11-12, 1992 blockbuster while I relished in 18" in Woburn!

Working overnights...I need something to keep me awake!

The hype on social media is ridiculous. Krakatoa's current eruption is *minor* overall. You get a bunch of these sized eruptions every year across the globe. Nothing to see here. "Oh, but Krakatoa is famous!" Yes, it is, but that does not mean it will do it again. Typical clickbait using familiarity as a draw. It erupted significantly larger than this in late 2018 and generated a significant tsunami, and still nothing of consequence globally. And not all eruptions are the same. You need a significant amount of SO2 for cooling. So you can have a VEI-5 (minimal for any sig global impacts) and not get much. Hunga-Tonga actually warmed the globe w/ a distinct delayed temp spike in 2023-24 as it ejected an enormous amount of WV into the stratosphere, which is normally very dry.

Not to have a NS form Sep 1-10 is rather rather (peak climo time for the Atlantic). Yes, technically on Z time Edouard formed in Sep (01/00z), but that doesn't say much as to how atypically quiet it is. Not to even have an invest or something outlooked in 7 days in the Atlantic speaks volumes right now! There is value in such a quiet season scientifically. We are in uncharted waters, at least in the data rich/satellite era, for El Nino, so what are we seeing that we have not seen before? Record high MDR wind shear for one, but what else will come out of this season? For instance, was the AEJ impacted? Walker Circulation? Hadley Cell? All these impact TC formation and maintenance. It seem like Saharan dust outbreaks are not a huge factor this year, unlike last. Why? Is it b/c of the strong westerly wind shear in the MDR? Can you have a season when both are strong and work in tandem to make conditions even more hostile and get something like 1914 (only one TS the entire season?) or 1907 (5 storms but no hurricanes)? Yes, limited data from these time periods make comparisons to the modern age tough, but to know the absolute limits/extremes (at both ends) is a high value. 2005 and 2020 showed one end of the spectrum. Also, 1933 b/c it still has the most ACE for a season on record.

"from the annoying guy and how some of the stuff he says doesn't seem to make sense." "favoring increased winter threats in the deep South because the jet will be shifted south." These are the kind of things one needs to monitor in discussions/posts. Put on your critical thinking hat! It all can sound great, then you catch one item that does not make sense that is biggie. Yes, it could be typo or honest mistake, but not always. Proof/authority by obfuscation or pontificating is a common tactic on some social media posts. And then we have AI-queries that are cut/pasted that can make it even harder to spot!

"Linear logic" -- solid term, esp. as it applies to wx/climate! Linear logic does not work well for a coupled, chaotic, non-linear system as the Earth's atmos/cryo/hydrosphere. "Supercharge" is largely a media term for hype. But if you want to go that route, what about El Nino "supercharging" the wind shear over the Atlantic MDR? It is at an all-time record level by far (at least since 1979) per CSU. Where is the mention of that in the mainstream? Even when it is, it will be spun in a way still negative for society or made a into "problem." Cherry-picking at its finest. When the Atlantic was very active 2020-2025, want to know what was going on the NW Pacific for TCs for the same period? It was the lowest 6-year total ACE on record since 1950 for this basin (66% of avg). And the NW Pacific supplies the most ACE for any tropical basin in the world (double any other basin). "Supercharge" is subjective term and often gets used selectivity, so not a good term to use, esp. for complex systems. Also, more or stronger/higher does not all mean "worse" or "bad" when it comes to sensible wx and the cycles/patterns they are connected to/influenced by.

Here is food for thought... We see this El Nino is in record territory. The thing to keep in mind that things do not work linearly necessarily just b/c you have "stronger" or "strongest ever." Case in point, the very strong El Nino in 2015-16. Up until that point, it was an expected given that Cali gets big rains in very strong El Nino, and the Pac NW is dry. Well, that did not happen. In fact, the exact opposite happened, and the MSM was all over that acting, "that's it, Cali is done...PERMANENT DROUGHT!" And then the very next year, weak La Nina, and it was one of the wettest on record for Cali. No insight or restraint, just knee-jerk, here-and-now nonsense. The point all being we are too fixated on making analogs and forecasting *exact* sensible wx for any/all regions. Well, that's not really the best fcst science. Non-linear system the Earth system is and works. So who is to say there will not be a couple of blockbuster E Coast snowstorms 2026-27, and snowiest than any other very strong El Nino winter DCA-BOS? We only have 4 other very strong El Ninos to compare since 1950, so no way we have seen the full gamut of what is possible or the variance, esp. region to region. I can give another example. Recall the fcsts for the 2024 Atlantic hU season? They were off the charts, going to be an all-time record, and yes, the indicators were there. And it started fast and early w/ Beryl, but then what happened? The climo peak of the season got ripped out Aug-Sep. Yes, it still was an above avg season, (161 ACE) but a far cry from the hyperactive season that was fcst (220+ ACE). It was not 1933, 2004, or 2005, not even close, and a significant fcst bust by all. Things got messed up b/c we had an ITCZ that was too far N and this squashed many of the Cabo Verde waves, so we could not even get TCs to form in the MDR peak season. A wildcard factor that shows there are still unknowns out there and we have a lot to learn, despite all our advances. And no, that does not mean I am saying it is going to be a big E Coast snow winter, just saying that surprises and unexpected still do happen, in spite of analogs/past seasons.

"I’m not going by emotion." Whoa, scroll back a few posts, you said: "At least summer gives some interesting weather usually. It’s been like San Diego here and I’m not holding out hopes for anything this winter that will move the weenie. I acknowledge we could get near normal snow in spots, but I’m not getting my hopes up after years of depression. Positivity is a waste." Is this not emotion (the bold)? An another post you were saying you were being objective. So which is it? Just looking for a little consistency here.

What, as if Jan-Feb 2026 never occurred? Come on! I'll say it again, how often does Weymouth get two 20"+ snowstorms in a single winter? This downer stuff is coming from someone as a kid in the 80s who used to wake up to full sun so ticked b/c he did not get his 4-8" "backlash" snow! Take more cues from @ineedsnow and get pumped every upcoming event/winter!

What about something like this? G103mph at DE-lux-BURY MA (that's your nickname for the location, not mine!) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2021_nor'easter| G113 mph Truro MA. That's among the highest gusts ev-A recorded at sea level in a nor'easter in New England. Probably the 2/2/1976 one had gusts this high on the ME coast (the one that flooded downtown BGR). And of course, @CoastalWx fav -- Dec 9, 2005 ("what's that roar noise outside?" -- said by Scott waking up in the aftn in GHG!). Even if we got something like this again, he'd be like, "MEH! NIMBY!"

Recall that overnight in Feb 2016 (I think it was that year)? @CoastalWx was thoroughly impressed w/ the LTG. Probably the most CGs in SNE for a single tstm event in Feb on record! Then he could not believe the two spinners in wrn MA on 2/25/2017!

It eludes me why Emily from 2005 was not retired. Not b/c it was Cat 5 in July, but b/c it made two Cat 3 landfalls in Mexico. Usually, a Cat 3 or higher landfall anywhere is retired no problem. But retirement request I think are based on if the country(s) impact from officials there. Since Mexico was the only country directly impacted, they must have not requested it in the annual WMO meeting. Bret in 1999 was a Cat 3 landall in TX, but it was small and made landfall between the very sparsely populated area between CRP and BRO, so it was not retired.

A bit of caution here. The other two very strong El Ninos since 1950? 1983 was lowest ACE on record in the satellite era and only 4 NS. 1992 had only 7 NS and an ACE of 40. Yes, we had Andrew, but I am looking at entire seasons here, not individual storms. 1983 had Alicia Cat 3 that made a direct hit on HOU. 2023 going by the RONI index, was a moderate El Nino, not very strong. https://ggweather.com/enso/roni.htm This is only the 5th very strong El Nino since 1950, so small sample size precludes a statistically significant signal either way for what 2027 might hold using just very strong El Nino as an indicator.