vortex95

No, his classic line when I would downplay an event, he'd always go, "WE'LL SEE!!!"

Drago pseudo-quote? If this storm does not pan out, Scott will have to get into his car, rev the engine and burn rubber, blast "NO EASY WAY OUT," and vent his frustration, peppered by flashbacks to the good ol' days like March 31-April 1, 1997!

I worked w/ him at WSI for 10 years. Ultimate uber snow weenie and the cross-talk/discussion we had on wx are legendary!

Now THAT is EPIC! Fits him perfectly w/ his record # of posts on this site!

I have no idea what ACWATT means. It is an AmrWx slang only thing???

It's done some odd things recent years. It used to be best w/ TCs, then not so good, as one example. The tweaks and upgrades they do it it, it fixes some things, while it breaks other things. It's a constant battle w/ models to try to improve them. And it gets non-linear harder to keep a balance as they become more detailed and resolute!

As it stands right now. How much time do we have for the proverbial "CoastalWx TICK" N trend? LOL.

And ydy the ECMWF had *no* storm at all. But all the other global models had a storm ydy. Now the ECMWF has a storm, and the others are still on track for a sig E Coast snowstorm. So what's w/ this excessive ECMWF praising, as if it is the buck stops w/ it? Ever since Sandy in 2012, it has had this aura around it as if it is always right. And I am not talking about model performance over time. That's a smoothed avg. I am talking about individual events, which are all different, so it's never one size fits all. And we are talking an low pressure system that just gets going over NC around 12z Sun, so that's 4.5 days out still. There is no good reason to throw in the towel yet b/c one model is not onboard.

Or as CoastalWx would say, "DIAMOND DUST AT 30,000 FT!!!"

18z GFS is a Weymouth special! 3 contour cut off at 500 (going by standard every 6 dm) w/ a min height min of about 511 dm. That's nasty. A large part of New England gets into the closed circulation at 500, which I was concerned about initially b/c it was so tight off the Delmarva. And the best gradient at 925 ends up covering most of MA/RI/CT and SE NH. So that should mean solid S+ banding. Look at the mini-block at 500 initially over James Bay. That moves w/ the 500 low to the S and ends up S of NFL for excellent downstream s/w ridging. And look at those 925 and 850 temps. That's pure powder ratio up! If you want something to "complain about" (EEYORE CoastalWx will find a way - LOL), the uber crushing is well S over the Delmarva and NJ. 27" max near ACY and look at that rear sfc pressure gradient residence time as the low undergoes RI and sits in place for a period until the 500 support can catch up. This taken at face value, it's going to be "KRAZEE" for this area w/ sig coastal flooding. I seem to recall this happened unexpectedly or more than fcst in the Feb 2016 blockbuster, or one of those events in the mid 2010s. Ocean City was hit hard.

With the 500 cut off where it is on the ICON at 120 hr and the sfc low about 100 mi E of ORF, that should be enough for a movement close enough to SNE for sig snow. The strong vort SW of the cut off is somewhat of a wildcard. It seems to be rotating around the cut off faster than the upper low itself, so does it continue and go negative as it crosses the coast and you get one large cut off low just S of LI? The ridge over the Rockies is staying put and not de-amplifying, so that's good. Downstream the flow is still rather flat, but there are modest 500 height rises S of NS and NFL 108 to 120 hr.

Yes, more GEFS members than not show a big goose egg for New England. That is concerning when coupled w/ the ECMWF op. But the AI ECMWF shows a hit!?

CoastalWx concern is the 12z ECMWF op still not on board!!! What can go wrong, will! This is not as straightforward as it seems, the Fri event could muck up things enough so a flatter ECMWF could happen.

I thought the same thing. First, who said this? Second, context? Third, is it a facetious post?

Complex the next week. We have the light snow NNE overnight, then the sheared narrow band of mdt SN Wed, and then what? GFS wants to do a pseudo-repeat of Wed on Fri, and then makes a weenie coastal. And the ECMWF puts all its eggs in the 3rd system Fri, and a big nothing-burger for the "CoastalWx wanna-be storm!" The GDPS/UKMET/ICON for the Sun-Mon coastal are in-between the GFS and ECMWF scenarios in various forms. So lots going on, and a rather "crowded" pattern for snow events. UA pattern fast W-E zonal first, and then amps up this weekend. Also, you can clearly see the later Feb transition to a more blocky upper-air pattern this week, w/ the main jet across the cntrl and srn CONUS and "loose" and "confused" flow along the Canadian border. So that further complicates things!

Ooo, make it sound "techy" or arcane as if that makes them appear "in the know" about types of precip. It's all just doublespeak, plain and simple! Yes, I get the business and marketing aspect of it, but deceiving people and insulting their intelligence is not a good thing from a societal POV.

I honestly have not heard it before this term, but you learn something new every day, even in your field of expertise. How about this? -- "noddles." They are raindrops that still have some slush left in them, and you get "cats paws" on the car windshield!

"White rain" LOL. Reminds of what ski areas say when it rains, "LIQUID SNOW!" I recall one time it was -RA in CLE and the 1000-500 thickness was 525. That's impressive for lower elevations. Partial thicknesses count! Can't use the 1000-500 layer in a vacuum. 540 works best for low elevations.

And I am so sick of OCMs and other people saying before any out-of-season event, "the ground is too warm!" FALSE! Sure, at the start if the snow it is, but once intensity picks up and you get relentless phase change cooling from the melting snowflakes on the ground, the warm issue goes away very quickly! And in other parts of the country, it is even more extreme. Early Sep 1993, DEN was 92 for a high one day, and the next day they had 5" of snow. And this: 4/9/1988 Residents of Sioux City, Iowa awoke to find 2 inches of snow on the ground following a record high of 88 degrees the previous afternoon.

It still amazes me it was in the 80s for high several days before. Just is the ultimate "freak out" for ppl! Even more amazing IMHO is that inland sections of SNE already had an official heatwave late April in 2002, and then accumulating snow a month later, during the DAY no less. And the intensity was nothing like May 9-10, 1977, nor was the pattern. If you look at the 500 for 5/18/02, you will go "that produced low-elevation accumulation snow in SNE???!!!" May 1977 you can track the 500 trough from nrn Hudson's Bay days before. It drops almost due S and evolved into a massive 5 contour cut-off low just S of New England. Take a look 12z 5/10/77. Last closed contour goes from Newfoundland to RDU! Omega block. Of note, the block moved E enough for the wrn trough to move E and resulted on the "7 Fabled Days in the Plains" for large, highly visible tornadoes, esp. in the TX/OK Panhandles. It does not look impressive on SVRPLOT, but that was long before storm chasing became popular and detailed account of svr wx were limited if populated areas were not hit. But from a storm chasing POV, it was unreal. Similar to the first week of June 1995 for the same area. Lots of footage of that as Project VORTEX was on it!

CoastalWx was mad I bet b/c GHG was in a relative mind for snowfall! He hadn't moved to Dorchester yet!!!