vortex95

"The Spider"

Worried about a dry slot when the sfc low passes more than 300 mi S of you?

6" so you can officially declare that stupid no 6" snowfall drought OV-A!

Sounds like a Richmond VA area complaint from "MIDLO!" So mild just to the W. 95% of the CONUS currently has 500 heights AOA 540 dm. And w/ 554 dm heights over NE PA? What do they expect?

And the next thought? "OMG, last one was in the 95-96 winter!!!!!" Make this winter a LOCK!!!!"

Some other thoughts on this event. It's not a typical clipper as it moves SE the entire time. It also can't rapidly develop offshore, at least initially b/c it is too "crowded." The strong cold front and disturbance aloft the gave the SN to northern New England yesterday? That system rapidly developed last night S of Nova Scotia and is now intense (see 12z sfc map attached). So when it is crowded like this, another trough/disturbance so close behind it often has no "room" to develop much, and will get forced more SE rather than E. As I mentioned yesterday, this is a *darn* good snowfall for such a weak low pressure. The sfc low does not get below 1006 mb as it passes. Usually, a snowfall of this magnitude has low pressure below 1000 and more often closer to 990. And aloft at 500, it is nothing special either. Just a little "dent" in strong WNW flow. The strong Arctic high pressure to our NE supplying a wedge of low-level cold air damning to the SW over the region makes all the difference here. Who would have thought having the mean trough position too far *east* for an East Coast weenie blockbuster could do this? CoastalWx recently told me, "this pattern BLOWS!" Ok, does it now? And it is not a case of the ambient pressure field in place prior keeping the low from not getting that "deep." The sfc high to the NE is "only" 1033 mb and center well NE near Labrador, and, as I said above, nothing much at all at 500, and even at 850, it barely cuts off one contour, so not a low-least beast like a Gulf wave often is. The 18z HRRR is forecasting up to 18" in central NY (Cooperstown area). There is no lake effect snow involved here and elevation in that area is not a factor (no little bulls-eyes on the higher areas, it's a broad 12-18" area), so 12-18" is a lot for such a weak storm like this. That much synoptic snow from a clipper? And another factor I think? It's been very mild W of New England across a large part of the country, and very wet storms have been impacting the West, so more moisture in the mean is available overall and associated w/ the clipper. So you can "blame" the more snow here from mild winter temps partially! Imagine that.

Not a "tickle?"

You have solid high RH at 700 and 500 mb on the NAM/GFS thru 12z Sat. Synoptic snow superimposed on OES? I don't see an issue, esp. in Weymouth! Seeding the OES from above, dancin' in the streets time for CoastalWx? LOL. And the 18z NAM shows actually shows an little higher QPF band pointed right at Weymouth, and 18z HRRR shows 5" right over Weymouth. 12z GFS had a broad slightly higher QPF area over ern MA.

I was accounting for the snow ratios which should be 15:1 or more NYC N&E. The RRFS and HRRR are in good agreement w/ a max 10-15" swath, just I said 12-18" accounting for "surprises" (don't underestimate FGEN!)

A little perspective for those complaining how "lousy" the pattern is (Re: CoastalWx LOL) and the upcoming event. How often do you see a swath of 12-18" in the NEUS *not* from LES/OES/NORLUN and w/o any sig orographics from basically a weak clipper (pressure gets no lower than 1007 mb). Find me one! This will make two foot plus events in the NEUS in 3.5 days that impact high population areas. W/ this upcoming event, it also shows how important strong Arctic high pressure to the N for sig snow. Solid damning w/ low-level Arctic air in place is paramount. Everyone seems to look for that 960 mb superbomb that "drills for oil" off just off the coast, and don't realize that you can do well in a gradual, piecemeal fashion from more subtle events. In other words, swinging for HRs all the time and ignoring singles and doubles is going to result in frustration/disappointment often. I think many of us were spoiled from the epic period 1992-93 to 2015-16. But so far this winter in the NEUS, you add up all that has happened, it is much better than the last several. Sure, some areas still are "holed" (like South Weymouth ), but one needs to look at the big pix. I still think that 4/063 SOG at Mt Mansfield earlier this month, which was by far the most SOG so early for the location, is nothing to shake a stick at! If this kind of "subtle" winter pattern for snowfall events continues for the rest of the winter, it's going to turn out pretty good for many I think.

CoastalWx favorite!

The problem, and this is a very common logical fallacy, is "recency bias." What is occurring *now* or in the last few years, that how it's seems it always have been and that how it going to be "4-EVA!" Also, we wallow when is sucks so bad, doesn't matter how awesome it was not that long ago, or you were there to experience it in all its glory. So it is perception thing. That fact we lacked clippers for a period? It happens, and often on an irregular basis. Also, when ppl keep bringing it up, that affects our perception as well, and negativity is contagious (CoastalWx take note!) LOL. It all comes around eventually. It did after the overall snow drought 1978-79 to 1991-92 in New England, and esp. 1984-85 to 1991-92. Then the "dendrite" floodgates opened in 1992-93 and an absolutely epic period through 2015-16. It still boggles my mind what occurred during that period, including some of the weirdest and atypical snow events. CoastalWx's favorite is March 8-9, 2013 -- sfc low 600 mi SE of ACK and yet 30" at Blue Hill. One of biggest forecast busts in modern times for the area.

This sums it all up perfectly for CoastalWx. The first two boxes -- what is said!

Looks like all MD AWOS METARs have returned, except for KMTN. This site has taken manual METARs in the absence of the AWOS METARs.

https://www.icyclone.com/s/iCyclone_Chase_Report_MELISSA2025.pdf Main points: My location on the SW coast of Jamaica was well inside the RMW (radius of maximum winds) and got the eyewall’s inner right-front quadrant. The SE edge of the eye apparently grazed my location, temporarily bringing reduced wind speeds, improved visibility, and a marked shift in wind direction. My minimum pressure was 926.0 mb. While this might seem high, the report discusses how it actually makes sense, given recon data and the fact that I was probably a few miles from the absolute center. MELISSA's winds were absolutely ferocious—the most intense I've witnessed in 84 hurricanes. And the resultant wind damage was spectacular. This was a truly rare specimen. This is a preliminary version of this report which I rushed to completion because of time-sensitive requests for the data. In the next couple of weeks, I'll be releasing an expanded version with plentiful damage pics. Josh Morgerman iCyclone

CoastalWx will get upset at me for posting the screenshot! LOL. But really, using just the last 5 years, and averages only since 2008? That is much too short of a time frame to determine any real trend either way. As I think I have mentioned before, New England suffered through a crappy snow period 1978-79 to 1991-1992. Yes there was some biggies, but largely confined to 1981-1984. It really was bad 1984-1985 to 1991-92. In Woburn MA, my biggest single snowfall during that latter period was only 11"! That seemed like a lot back then, but now, MEH unless at least 18" after epic 1992-93 to 2015-2016! CoastalWx has vivid "traumatic" memories as a li'l kid at the time in the mid-late 80s -- "WHERE'S MY 4-8" IN THE BACKLASH!!!"

K98D - Onida SD KAGZ - Wagner SD KO61 - Cameron Park CA KVES - Versailles OH TJRV - Ceiba PR

Model backed off.

Models obviously backed off since 18z yesterday. Low once near EPM is "only" 987 mb, compared to 979 mb earlier.

What I am saying is that these RI events can be sneaky and surprise us. I am not talking a Dec 9, 2005 repeat. But wind is wind, so is a sting jet. And don't you recall? Did anyone have a clue even that morning on Dec 9, 2005 what was going to happen? I recall it was a just going to be a run-of-the-mill 4-8" event N of the Pike! Only the Dec 23, 1997 ++SN (the BOS Herald "THEY BLEW IT!" event, rivals the Dec 2005 surprise! CoastalWx's favorite though is the early March 2013 event. Sfc low 600 mi out, and Blue Hill gets 30"! Biggest bust ev-A! And we know we are in an ideal position from a longwave pattern POV to take full advantage of systems moving through. The building blocks are there, so that's why I am cautiously optimistic here it could be a good weenie event! G70? The 12z HRRR showed that easily right offshore in ern MA. G70 is nothing compared to the G100 on the S Coast for the Dec 2005 storm. You do realize that about the only time low elevations of New England get G100 is w/ hurricanes. It's quite rare in winter storms.

The LSR does not mention Bourne damage? Also, just b/c it is called a gustnado, does not make it not a tornado. The official definition is if a gustnado is attached to the cloud base, it is a tornado. And gustnadoes do not typically stay coherent for very long, esp. if it is not flat terrain, yet you have an interminent damage in a 50 mi swath from RI to the CC Canal. So it was all gustnadoes then? Given the high shear/low CAPE environment, brief tornadic spin-ups are not a stretch at all, and this event warrants a closer, in situ look IMHO.

We are talking basically mesoscale stuff here. Sting jets are tricky. Location and timing are everything! Recall how localized the real crazy winds were on Dec 9, 2005? Had to be on the S Coast and Cape. PVD and GHG were not nearly as bad!

CoastalWx would be surprised what the event here yesterday turned into over Atlantic Canada. Sting jet and all! This next storm does something similar, expect New England catches the RI phase, and the low ends up 968 mb almost in the same exact position S of Newfoundland Thu aftn. This shows how good a pattern it is -- it reloads on the fly!

I'm not advocating the bad impacts, just pointing out the meteorology of the event and its potential. Pattern recognition plays a big role in this case.