vortex95

Yes, CoastalWx oddly quiet now despite "WE SNOW/RIP" many locations. Must be MEH 1SM -SN in Weymouth!

That gradient is odd on the coast. W/ gradual cooling of the BL and the winds backing more N w/ time and freshening, the immediate coast should be close to what is inland. Also, it is not Dec, it is mid-Jan, so ocean temps are not nearly as much as a factor now.

I would not use 10:1 over RI and SE MA in this case.

But the site is the former South Weymouth NAS. So not in South Weymouth>

Really though you look at radar w/ all that yellow mesh, It should be giant dendrites S+. But looking at 700 temps, it is only about -7 C at 700 mb over SE MA. No -12 to -16 C for ideal DGZ! Does not look that impressive at Foxboro. Barely accumulating.

Sounds like CoastalWx's issue in Weymouth!

Ity-bity flakes? You know those tiny wet flakes that don't look like snow until to note they are falling slower than DZ?

I still like 2-5" for SNE, srn NH, and coastal ME. Now, will the rear weenie squall mesolow thingy push some locations to 6 or 7". As CoastalWx always said to me years ago, "WE'LL SEE!" (implied optimism in his tone). There is a distinct vort at 500 w/ this thing, and a clear twist/hook in the pcpn pattern as it gets just off Cape Ann. If there is TSW+ in Weymouth? LOL. Going back to ydy, 10.5" at Savoy MA for the max. That is among the biggest synoptic snowfalls in SNE I can recall for such a "lame" sfc low/track (weak and well NW) and SW winds sfc and aloft the entire time. It was screaming SW 30-60 kt 925-850 during the event, yet it stayed all snow. Not just elevated areas either. 4" in Haverhill MA and 4.8" Old Orchard Beach ME. So the piecemeal, piling on, lgt-mdt SN events continue this winter. Ydy was it central and west, today will be central and east. But CoastalWx still grumpy I bet. "I want a KU to end all KUs!!!" The 1.3" at Marianna FL this morning, did it w/ nothing atypical for a pattern across the CONUS. Fairly avg ridge/trough wave pattern currently. FL had accumulated snow 2 years in a row March 1954 and 1955. In Feb 2010, accumulating snow occurred twice in 3 days. CoastalWx *not* happy about the "cold 'n dry, kiss'em goodbye" pattern after today the global model op runs show?! But the GEFS gives hope for next weekend! Does look like a nasty snow/ice event from the Srn Plains to SEUS.

Seem like w/ time, N&W of 495 is becoming the target max for Sunday. Compared to 24 hr ago when we were worried about if the pcpn shield would get any further N&W than TAN! Models are hurtin', global and mesoscale, recently. Can't recall so many issues in the short range!

What's this rear weenie bonus convectivey-NORLUN type stuff at the end??? 12z had it as well. Nothing would surprise me given how odd this season is so far w/ local snow maxes!

That would be pushing it WSW. Too much uncertainty w/ low ratios and mild sfc temps.

Some areas have already done well, Already had a 6" event on Cape Cod, and parts of CT and central/western MA has done reasonably well also. Now, it just the area bounded roughly by BOS-LWM-FIT-PVD-GHG that has been "holed" so far. CoastalWx is in this "hole!"

It's like you can't have it both ways. More intensity but warmer BL, or less intensity but colder BL? Weenie sweet spot somewhere between ORH and TAN? CoastalWx I know is hopeful! LOL.

I am not impressed overall w/ this event, despite the storm further NW. MOS shows sfc temps 34-38 F for most of the event across much of CT, all of RI, eastern MA, and Cape Cod. And precip intensity is not nuts (best 6 hr LEQ amount on the HRRR I see is .50" over the outer Cape), so despite the cold 850 and 925, the BL remains a big problem. There is zero high pressure to our N. In fact, it is one big trough from Labrador to the Great Lakes. This is rare for a coastal storm, and key for ptype in this event. So the low-level cold is limited, and more importantly, there is no solid N or NE sfc/BL wind to constantly drain the cold air to the N into SNE during the event. Winds are going to be rather light for a coastal storm, relatively speaking, so this is going to cause issues. Just before the precip starts in BOS on the NAM, the BL wind is 24011 and 6 hr later it is 1404. Does that look like a wind direction/trend that is conducive to significant snowfall? Also BOS buoy SST is 42 F. W/o solid ageostrophic flow and a mechanism to drain low-level cold air from the N into the heavier precip area, again, this is a big problem for ptype. You need this to offset relatively mild ocean temps. And what falls and SOG is likely to be quite different in many areas. So I would temper expectations here. Not a big storm (MEH for central pressure and deepening rate) and really no different than the piecemeal, nickel and dime events for snowfall we have dealt w/ so far this winter.

Can these stupid models make up their mind?? They have been oscillating back and forth for days w/ this system and the snow shield SE sections! What is it w/ this pattern that is making something that should be straightforward a challenge. It not like it is a monster sfc low! Oh, and the reason for the problem BL temps? Look at the 42 hr NAM sfc/pcpn fcst I attached. Um, no high pressure anywhere to N of us. Just low pressure, so no CAD! How often do you see that w/ a low pressure off the East Coast moving NE???

One item that stands out to me for the Sat event, when was the last time you saw that much snow forecast by the models w/ a sfc low passing well N in Quebec and sfc winds blowing the "wrong way" (SW) for a widespread accumulating snowfall, esp, in SNE? I can't recall an event quite like this. And the trough/sfc low is rather MEH. It seems counterintuitive, but the 18z HRRR and RRFS are in excellent agreement (snowfall 10:1 totals attached). Kuchera ratios are better for the higher elevations, showing up to a foot in srn VT. That is remarkable, given the synoptic setup! The odd and piecemeal/selective winter for New England snow events continues, and ern MA centered near Weymouth continues to be "flanked" on all sides, missing out on most events, while other areas are not doing too bad for seasonal snowfall, all things considered. And to add insult to injury, another oddity. It is the coldest time of the year, and a storm goes OTS, yet there are BL temp issues for ptype over SE MA and RI for the precip that makes it in?! This is what happens on Sun. W-T-F???!!! Maybe I shouldn't have said that, just drags down CoastalWx more!

57 still.

11 years

And in DC, it's not as good as I thought, at least on the N side of the Beltway. The downslope effect from the high terrain not far to the W stiffs me in Silver Spring a lot. Just E blows up big time on the Chesapeake dew point front/breeze. Seems like about 20 mi N and 20 mi S of me do well more often. Just location I guess. The thing is I am at 390 ft elevation, so not total downslope. Nevertheless, I have had some doozies and several supercells pass right over me. Had LTG hit the building and for the first time two years ago I actually heard arcing ZZZTTTT!!! (not click-pops, much louder and distinct) from a strike about 100 ft away. And thunder acoustics unlike anything I had heard before a couple of times.

It's not trolling. We go back and forth via email all the time. Oh yes, CoastalWx has given me the third degree before about how "we never get big tstms" here. Until 6/1/2011, then he had a change of heart! Then he got a +CG shock on his PC from a wicked close strike, and freaked when the outside transformer keep arcing. And the tornado in Weymouth in Aug 2023. He started to go "hmmmm" and then I showed him the long-term CG plot for New England, and how there is a local max right in his area S of BOS. High risk days often FAIL miserably, esp. in the Plains. I'd take a SLGT or MDT risk any day instead. My best chase days were in SLGT. Isolated supercells way better logistically, other than the chase hordes.

Wow, that much optimism so soon? Just how many times the op runs have had something "out there" in the long range, and never deliver. I don't see any real change to the NAMR 500 mean pattern UFN. In others words, MOTS (more of the same). "Cold 'n dry, kiss'em GOODBYE!" CoastalWx is getting so *sick* of these nickel and dime events, like what is coming up on Saturday. He can't even enjoy that in Weymouth b/c it will be too mild!

But the GDPS has something still?! Roll the dice. GFS/GDPS says YAY, and ECMWF/UKMET say NAY. With CostaslWx's luck this winter, he'll roll snake eyes!! LOL.

Moon dimly visible?

The CoastalWx dream scenario from the 12z GFS! Max right over Weymouth!!!

So finished a stretch of overnights ydy morning, and slept in long, so just looked at everything in the last hr, including previous runs. It's odd. You look at the solid full latitude 500 trough and it axis, and you wonder why a weak wave scoots out quickly ahead of the upper support, taking the baroclinic zone w/ it!!! Looking at 500 alone, it should much better at the sfc for a decent coastal. Also, now the models don't develop any real strong sfc low? Huh? Again, the 500 alone does not suggest this should happen! Big difference than 24 hr ago as well. The 500 cuts off *well* W of New England and is stronger than ydy, and moves over right over the region. That should promote a sfc low *not* scooting out to sea. However, it's not tilted below. The 700 low is co-located and goes right over the region, so we get dry slotted! But we never got any sig precip to begin w/! CoastalWx's worst nightmare! LOL. Moisture is quite limited w/ the upper low, so that will just mean half-decent snows across the mtns of NNE probably. Ydy was better actually, since the 500 low cut S of the region. And the two decent troughs that occur down the road, can't do much either, at least on the 06z GFS! The 06z ECMWF looks better for something this weekend. It's been piecemeal in regards to snowfall across the region so far this winter, no one storm can deliver widespread mdt-hvy SN. Just sub-regions, like LI to Cape Cod and NNE get localized decent snows. Now, we get a fragmented storm coming that that can't consolidate right!? I can see now why CoastalWx is really getting ticked!