vortex95

The late Wed/early Thu event looks very impressive. Low pressure 998 mb over Lake Huron noon EST Wed, and rapidly deepens to 979 mb just E of EPM by 6am EST Thu. Interesting and unexpected things can happen in such a case. W/ most low pressures that RI, there is often a "sweet spot" location that takes full advantage of this RI, meaning you can get absolutely crushed above expectations. The way the pattern is currently, New England is in this sweet spot. So wild precip and wind is possible. Perhaps the most impressive example of this was the Bliz of '78. The mean trough position has been very good for the E Coast events for over a month now. Best lead into winter for a pattern I have seen in some time. One thing about these kind of situations, the "surprise factor" is higher than typical. Given the mean trough position is excellent for the NEUS (we saw what happened last night -- overperfomed), why not? When its "good," it can be *really* "good." meaning sometimes you can get in to patterns that are relentless, everything goes right, and so nuts that even CoastalWx will forget his pain from the lack of snow he dealt w/ in the 80s (no 4-8" backlash, instead sunny when he got up in the morning), and the pitiful winters in the 2020s so far! Jan-Feb 2015 was such one period. Entire winters like 1992-93 and 1995-96 were like this. CoastalWx also needs to keep in mind Dec 9, 2005 in mind when it comes to wind w/ these type of storms. Sting jet! He'll be looking for the PVU anomaly and tropospheric fold I bet. LOL.

The 18z HRRR looks almost identical synoptically. The low is just as deep and comma head stout.

It seems most NC AWOS METARs have returned. Only KJNX, KSCR, KMCZ, and KIXA are still missing. No MD AWOS METARs have resumed. Here is the complete list that are missing currently. KJNX.TXT 31-Oct-2025 21:01 83 KDMW.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 83 KCGS.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 96 KCGE.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 83 KCBE.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 85 K2W6.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 95 K2G4.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 93 K0W3.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 108 KW29.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 91 KSCR.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 90 KMCZ.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 85 KIXA.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 75 KFME.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 75 K7W6.TXT 31-Oct-2025 07:50 85 The following MD sites are sending manually-taken METARs and are going to WMSCR: KESN KFDK KMTN

A notice has gone out today that states the FAA contract to a 3rd party vendor for 58 AWOS sites in MD/NC is ending today. This means no more METARs over the various NCEP and FAA data lines. This is non-trivial IMHO, esp. b/c it basically takes out much of the AWOS network in MD/NC. The AWOS are not being decommissioned, just NADIN service, which routes the METAR to WMSCR and then NCEP and the FAA lines for all to see, is going away. All these sites have been available for ~20 years. Not good for the HRRR and RRFS, among other things. List is below: K0W3 Churchville MD K1A5 Franklin NC K24A Sylva NC K2G4 Oakland MD K2W6 Leonardtown MD K7W6 Engelhard NC KACZ Wallace NC KAFP Wadesboro NC KASJ Ahoskie NC KCBE Cumberland MD KCGE Cambridge MD KCGS College Park MD KCPC Whiteville NC KCTZ Clinton NC KDMW Westminster MD KDPL Kenansville NC KEDE Edenton NC KEHO Shelby NC KESN Easton MD KETC Tarboro NC KEXX Lexington NC KEYF Elizabethtown NC KFDK Frederick MD KFFA Kill Devil Hills NC KFME Fort Meade MD KFQD Rutherfordton NC KGEV Jefferson NC KGWW Goldsboro NC KHBI Asheboro NC KHNZ Oxford NC KHRJ Erwin NC KIPJ Lincolnton NC KISO Kinston NC KIXA Roanoke Rapids NC KJNX Smithfield NC KJQF Concord NC KLHZ Louisburg NC KMCZ Williamston NC KMQI Manteo NC KMRN Morganton NC KMTN Baltimore MD KMWK Mount Airy NC KOCW Washington NC KONX Currituck NC KPGV Greenville NC KRCZ Rockingham NC KRHP Andrews NC KRUQ Salisbury NC KSCR Siler City NC KSIF Reidsville NC KSUT Southport NC KSVH Statesville NC KTDF Roxboro NC KTTA Sanford NC KUKF North Wilkesboro NC KVUJ Albemarle NC KW29 Stevensville MD KW40 Mount Olive MD

K8A1 - Guntersville AL KANY - Anthony KS KC24 - Creede CO KCOI - Merritt Island FL KLLR - Little River CA KMZM - Main Pass 69P LA 29.261 -89.030 40m

PT time?! My grass is drowning!

FFE soon?

Scott prays for rain, and now? LOL.

Your lawn thanks you...

WE RAIN! Scott will have to watch for basement flooding! 12z HRRR ydy nailed this TRW++.

Usually with BDFs, tstms are severely limited in eastern sections. Many areas lot of fog with FQT LTG last night. How often does that happen?

Aug 2000 overnight supercell comparison Scott? The one that had the TOR? Crazy LTG w/ that! GHG special.

Look at this EIR GIF loop. Within a decaying MCS anvil area, three distinct new cells simultaneously blow up? Don't see that too often in these parts. You would think the elevated instability would have been largely used up. Associated w/ a weak s/w at 700/500.

Probably the most intense CG barrage on Cape Cod in awhile, and with no CoastalWx EML present?

Laptop shock again? Or power pole fire?

K16J - Dawson GA K9K7 - Ellsworth KS KI93 - Hardinsburg KY KLKP - Lake Placid NY KMKV - Marksville LA KPBM - South Timbalier 232 LA 28.617 -90.338 35m KS31 - Lopez WA KX59 - Valkaria FL

Providing historical context is not pushing an agenda. No wx event should be treated in a vacuum, but that is what done a lot these days, hence everything is "worst ever" or "unprecedented."

The worst heat wave on record for the East occurred before this date range in 1911. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1911_Eastern_North_America_heat_wave BOS hit 104 on July 4th. So is 11 days earlier in 2025 low 100s in BOS really that extraordinary or that early, relatively speaking, esp. since avg temps everywhere are up by "alarming standards" in the last 100+ years? And add in the UHI effect at many climo sites, and things aren't quite as impressive as they appear. I would argue this levels things close to equal as to as far as extremes go for the region. Facts are meaningless w/o context.

Usually in FL, the 80 DPs are confined to immediate coastal areas. I do not think BOS has ever had a 80 DP. 78 or 79 max.

I don't see any indication DPs hit 80 in eastern MA or anywhere in New England from the standard airport observations. Highest I could find is 78. And DPs were lower near the coast from the sea breeze.

Go to OWD airport for the max effect!

Something to keep in mind for the larger pix (video link attached). ASOS was not really designed for climate data, it's more for aviation. And for aviation, temp is a secondary priority, compared to ceiling, vis, wind, and altimeter. And don't get me started about AWOS, esp. for dew points (they run high often and worse as you get in the 60s and higher). Seen this many times for OK. Compare the mesonet w/ all the ASOS/AWOS temp/dews, and it is apparent.

"I want 100! -- fail otherwise!" LOL.

One thing to keep in mind is that MWN's all-time record high us 72 set on 8/2/1975 and 6/26/2003. If the GFS is showing "only" 66, that is of concern for lower elevation max temps fcst. 8/2/1975 was ideal dry NW flow subsidence for highest temps on record in much in New England, and we do not have this pattern currently. And on 6/26/2003, general 100-103 did not occur in New England. CoastalWx needs to do something about OWD temps! Closest ASOS to him, so he has a vested interest! And talk about bad sensor or their placement, look at Baltimore/Inner Harbor today. Site is poorly located (not at an airport) and obviously contaminated by the concrete jungle or something like AC units nearby. General city UHI is not *that* strong during the day. : First-order and climate sites BWI : Balt-Wash Marshall : 97 / 76 / 0.00 CHO : Charlottesville AP : 96 / 72 / 0.00 DCA : Reagan National AP : 98 / 76 / 0.00 DMH : Baltimore Inner Hrb.: 104 / 85 / 0.00 HGR : Hagerstown Rgnl AP : 98 / 76 / 0.00 IAD : Dulles Intl Airport : 96 / 71 / 0.00 MRB : Eastern WV Rgnl AP : 97 / 81 / 0.00 NAK : Annapolis Naval Acad: 94 / 77 / 0.00

Look at these GIF loops from late this aftn. Classic supercell split mirror pair in n-cntrl MD. The left split accelerates and moves N, and the right split moves ESE and is slow-moving. In a more unidirectional environmental flow w/ wind shear, the supercell splits both have an equal chance of surviving. Most of the time tho when there is directional shear present, it is veering w/ height, so that favors the right mover (cyclonic meso), and the left mover (anticyclonic meso) does not last long. Supercells by default split, but often since the right split is so favored so often from the shear profile, the left split never has a chance and is wiped immediately, so you see nothing on radar! And when overall flow is weak/disorganized over an area, the mesoscale takes over, leading to some odd storm motions and evolutions, as we see today.