vortex95

Well, at least so far we don't see the ultimate over/under maps like the NWS has started putting out for snow events. 0-6" or 1-14" for a single point fcst? That is practically useless for most. Yes, I know some want to see the full range possible but overall, it just causes more confusion and has ppl going ????? Put out one specific fcst w/ reasonable prob snow ranges at a given time, and that's it! Adjust as needed as new model data comes in (not every single weenie model every 3 hr or so!). Focused, coherent, consistent messages is important! Don't make things any more complex than they need to be.

One issue is the all storms have the same cookie-cutter hype formula in the eyes of TV stations. Sure, not all OCMs follow that or want to do that, but many are forced to. If one wanted to scale things properly and have something unique to say, they should have said, "such a storm fcst is quite unusual for September", but that takes more than generic knowledge of wx, one needs to know local wx history as well. This is of value b/c it puts things in proper context and perspective, which sadly is sorely lacking these days in media. Not all Nor'easters are alike, but they are treated as such for max hype and ratings. Heaven help us when the next HU takes aim at New England. Mark my words, they will make ZERO difference between the 1938 HU and a MEH HU like Belle in 1976. "Look, the track is *similar* the 1938 HU!" O-kay, but all big HU hits in New England have similar tracks! That doesn't say anything really to the public as to total sensible wx impact It's like after Sandy, every E Coast TC threat was "track similar to Sandy" which in that case was nonsense. Sandy 's track was exceptional. But never let a recent big event go unused for hype for "the next one!"

@weatherwiz posts are solid and make excellent points. Good debate/discussion material! "just because the lead story was on the storm does not mean it was hyped," Wx is almost always the lead story. Even when nothing is going on, the newscast will throw to the wx right away and talk about how sunny it was today, and never not let an excuse happen for them to say "WE'RE TRACKING!" even if it is clouds or a slight change in temp! This is fluff and obvious to the viewer. That time could be used to report on much more important news out there (not like there isn't enough out there). "Cancelling events ultimately is the decision of the person or people responsible for that decision." Correct, but there is cause and effect here. When you hype things to the max, turning the ordinary into the extraordinary, that has real psychological impacts and skews perception big time. Even if you know better and are well-versed in the basics as to wx, say as an EM, this still will sway your objectivity subconsciously, and result in decisions that are not always the best. Also, even if you know better and do not let this influence you, external pressures socially/politically/economically amped up by the hype are a factor and make you do things you otherwise would not do. Do not underestimate the bandwagon logical fallacy. That is, if "everyone" says this or that is true or is going to happen, then it *must* be true or going to happen! This is known social science and human psychology. Also, as mets and wx enthusiasts, we can't let our wx knowledge bias us here. Yes, WE know the deal and how to interpret/read between the lines when a wx event is fcst, scaling and quantifying things correctly, but the vast majority out there have no idea, and given the info overload these days and not knowing what is what from it, you can't really blame the public for being skeptical/distrustful, which leads me to this: "Also, there is a greater trust in weather forecasts these days which factors in as well. " I don't know about that. In some sectors/fields, yes, but from a public POV? I'll never forget what I heard in a grocery line some years ago. A storm was coming, and one person talking to another said, "last time they said it was not going to hit, and it did, so maybe this time it won't b/c they say it will!" What kind of logic is that!? But you see the notions and perceptions out there!

When you say "local TV stations" I assume you just mean those that you get in your viewing areas in CT.? Not every TV market is the same, some are more out of control w/ hype than other and intense (you should see the OKC market!). Not all markets have the same caliber OCMs as to overall met knowledge or the OCM able to do things in a reasonable/balanced way for wx presentation as the news director is breathing down their necks micromanaging and saying hype to the max. Since wx is the #1 reason why ppl watch local news, I don't have to say how intense and competitive it is these days at many TV stations.

That's major problem these days. No accountability. Whether it be legacy media or social media, it always about what's *going to* happen w/ endless speculation, conjecture, and hedging that is over-the-top. Fcst does not work out as planned or not at all?, memory hole it and just move on to the next event or distract w/ other content. It is business model that is more self-serving than doing a service.

Overall, things worked out exactly as forecast. What was atypical is that banded nature of the precip. A classic coastal just steady moves NE and intensifies, and the precip area comes in as a wall w/ a solid WAA blitz, and *then* the precip becomes more banded and showery as the upper trough and comma head moves in. But given this was an outlier event in terms of setup/pattern, none of what happened should have been a surprise. In the end, it delivered big many areas.

Can you image if this was snow w/ those kind of narrow precip maxes/mins? You never would hear the end of it! Meanwhile, @CoastalWx would have likely *actually* said, "this is TOO MUCH in Weymouth! I can't get out of my house!!!""

Despite being such a "warm" storm, it still managed to get that classic SE quad cool/cold air instability CU over the ocean we see so often in the weenie classics! When I first swt a VIS image of the Bliz of 78 as a kid, that cold air CU always stuck in my mind! One of more crazy cold air CU wraps was the Bliz of 97. @CoastalWx PT!

"communicated quite well," yah, to the point that ppl were ticked that so many *indoor* events were cancelled and ppl treated it like a snowstorm raid the grocery store! From a fcst model perspective, they nailed it, as you said. It indeed did end up being the biggest Sep nor'easter on record for the region, not only for rain/wind, but also for duration as well. Sometimes I find this overlooked, which is should not be. Our ability to fcst high-end, outlier wx events has become excellent in the last 10-15 years and that has translated to a lot of $$ and lives saved. Contrary to popular belief, the wx is not becoming less forecastable or "unrecognizable" w/ warmer mean temps. I have to state this at times in discussions -- the laws of physics and thermodynamics do not change b/c temps on avg change (up or down). Water still freezes at 0 C, latent heat of fusion/vaporization/sublimation remains the same, the sun angle at any given latitude is still the same every year on any given date, etc.

Had a weenie friend go to Hampton Beach today. Sand drifts along the boardwalk were NUTZ! Has @CoastalWx ever seen such before in GHG????

That is odd. Usually every ERC, the radii of TS and HU winds expands somewhat.

Hanna is another case of a TS that would have highly likely been totally missed prior to the satellite era, and even during the satellite era, not declared. NHC was not aggressive in naming many short-lived "throwaway" systems through the early 1990s. For instance, there are 5 systems in 1992 that will likely be included in the reanalysis once it gets to the 1990s (at least one will be a short-lived HU). One thing that changed by the 00s is ASCAT. When you had a highly sheared system like Hanna, it was hard to know if winds were min TS strength and if the LLCC was closed. Now, much easier to tell from remote sat products like ASCAT what the winds are. SAR is making it even better now. Also, what we call a TC has evolved over time. We now know that there is a wide spectrum of TC types and seasons like 2005 showed us how far that spectrum can be pushed! And in a seasonal perspective, what is happening this season matches well w/ what to expect during strong or very strong El Nino. MDR squashed and high-latitude developments primarily. Some ppl here probably getting sick of the "nickel and dime" ACE progress!

Fay is going to upgraded again to a 35 kt TS at 03z. The ATCF 00z position notes this and Tropical Tidbits pulls the ATCF so it already says "Tropical Storm Fay" for its floater Will not go away!

And you thought you have got ripped off in Meuthen? How about the 3 day total so far for Rockport MA? Also, Billerica! As @CoastalWx would say GWDLT! And would be saying if Weymouth was not near 7" "deeply occluded low banded precip SUXS!"

HFD had sustained 70 mph and CON gusted to 113 mph, at or above 1938. ALB G83 mph, NYC G94 mph, and EWR G108mph, well above 1938. Areal coverage of the high-end winds was significantly more in the NEUS and Mid-Atlantic than 1938, so I could easily see the biggest power outages on record when happening again.

Noted MQE up to 7.55". In the 1991 Perfect Storm, they had almost 6" for the highest in the region. What is @CoastalWx up to? Does his lawn thank him? Observer in Bridgewater just messaged me and he said he is up to 8.06" as of 10pm. Hello 10"!?

Li'l convection cells over Weymouth! Make sense given the occlusion and instability. HRRR shows 200-500 CAPE overnight in far ern MA and RI. As I tried to point out to @CoastalWx earlier, offshore SSTs are near climo peak and 2-4 C above avg! Not your typical Nor'easter SSTs! 00z HRRR gives another widespread 1-2" for much of region w/ a max of 3" near PVD and another 3" max wrn ME. Spot 10" seems likely in sern MA.

Feb 2010 was among the best, at least for NE MA, NH, swrn ME However, and @ineedsnow would pass out from ecstasy from this, look at Nov 1950. Truly exceptional for winds inland. What really stood out from the sustained winds well inland. Something like that today would rival power outages equivalent to a 1938 HU. The only thing mitigating it would be less leaves on the trees.

Dancin' in the sheets = pitching a tent! I'll let @dendrite take the next logical step for a reply here (re: FOOTLOOSE!).

Every time I see "Nolo," I think of this legal term! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nolo_contendere

Warm process rain here. Noted SNE 1000-500 thickness 568 now and that's high for a nor'easter this strong. Also, a small amount of CAPE which enhances warm process rain.

Is the 6.47" report in New Bedford legit?

It about time you fess up and admit it is BIG, esp.for Sep. What was I saying for DAYZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ? The signal was there and climo anomaly alone spoke volumes, not just the the low, but with the high to the N!

Got it! Recall the G113 mph Oct 2021!?

WE +RA!