vortex95

Indeed! And it shows things are kind of messed up in the ern tropical Atlantic. Where is the deep easterly uniform flow that is almost always present this time of year that brings all African waves steadily westward? If this anomalous flow sticks around for awhile, it is going to put a dampener on some sig Cape Verde TC potential.

Exactly. Couldn't have said it any better. Everything has to be practically perfect for a TC of at least min hurricane intensity to make landfall on LI or the New England coast. One thing is off (i.e. not moving fast enough, trof to W not sharp enough, first landfall down the coast, etc) it greatly reduces the overall threat and impact, at least from a wind and surge point. Rainfall can still be high impact, but you don't need a hurricane for that anywhere. It also helps if the hurricane is intense off the SEUS coast to begin with. It's been 29 years since the last hurricane made landfall on LI or the New England coast, by far the longest period on record going back to 1851. This shows how hard it can be during certain cycles/patterns. Of course, between 1938 and 1960, we got 5 hurricanes, all stronger at landfall than any of the 4 hurricanes the area has had since 1960. Feast or famine it seems!

Still skeptical on the more W track. The trough that evolves over the ern U.S. is not digging and is positively tilted. That's not how you typically bring a TC to SNE. Basically it is just riding a channel in the mean flow, not drawn in by backing flow. One thing I have noticed empirically over time, is that these things tend to recurve out sharper than any model forecast in a synoptic set up like this. You have to find a good reason why it will *not* recurve out sharper than forecast. Here's the pattern that brought Bob up. It was focused, digging s/w trof that gave SNE decent +RA/+TSRA only 24 hr after Bob departed. And the next image is the 00z GFS for 96 hr. It's not the same. In Bob's case, you had a dumbbelling effect.

K00U - Hardin MT K38S - Deer Lodge MT K3U3 - Anaconda MT K4U6 - Circle MT K6S8 - Laurel MT K79S - Fort Benton MT K7S0 - Ronan MT K7S1 - Twin Bridges MT K7S6 - White Sulphur Springs MT KCII - Choteau MT KCPF - Hazard KY KEZP - East Cameron 321A 28.220N 92.784W 31m KPO1 - Poplar MT KPWD - Plentywood MT KS21 - Sunriver OR KS59 - Libby MT KS71 - Chinook MT KS85 - Culbertson MT KU55 - Panguitch UT KUKL - Burlington KS

K2IS - Clewiston FL K41U - Manti UT K4F2 - Carthage TX K77S - Creswell OR K2R9 - Kenedy TX KHMT - Hemet CA KMHP - Metter GA KMIO - Miami OK KPJC - Zelienople PA KPZZ - Ship Shoal 241 LA 28:26N 91:02W 40m KT41 - La Porte TX KT74 - Taylor TX KX26 - Sebastian FL KXWA - Williston ND (replaces (KISN)

CoastalWx won't be happy until hell freezes over!