vortex95

Well, after such an epic period, it can *only* go down. Regression to the mean. So how is this an issue overall? You lived it, you loved it 1992-93 to 2015-16.

Going from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 normals raised BOS avg snowfall 7" to 49". That's how lame the snowfall was in the 1980s and how great it was in the new 30-yr period. Such an avg snowfall increase is quite remarkable IMHO, esp. for a coastal location that battles "marine infections" often!

Staying power winters in SNE are much less common than winters w/ great snowstorms. But it's good you at least acknowledge this winter is good or decent. Now compare that to CoastalWx, who seems drowning in the cesspool no matter what happens!

Huh? You get two feet in a single storm and it is called a dream???? Negative Nancy.

500 on UKMET has gone to crap.

Scott likes the 38" bulls-eye 12z GFS over DCA!

The GHG tree devastation CoastalWx always talks about???

The 18z ECMWF AI 500 is *much* better than previous runs, and in-line w/ the other global models. For some reason through 12z, the ECMWF 500 had been MEH and wishy-washy, as if it could not decide what to do. The 500 trough tried to go negative, then just "gave up," and opened up into a positively-tilted POC. Now, it does the "full swing" for the 500 trough, initially positive 270 in the Midwest, and goes full 180 to negative 90 S of New England, w/ that more classic E-W oval shape 500 cut-off we all LUV to see! The 18z GFS puts a 28" max in Delmarva, and given what it shows w/ explosive deepening just E, that is not unreasonable as to how the sfc low evolves. It tries to go OTS at first, but the upper support moving in "yanks" it back big time and you get a 6 hr deepening of 18 mb! That is nuts and you are easily going to see sustained 65 kt sfc winds near the Delmarva in strong cross-isallobaric flow and crazy pcpn rates in the GFS scenario. As for our area, the 925-500 circulations on the global models all seem to show enough closed contours to the NW that at least eastern sections of SNE should do well. Not all up to CoastalWx's standards, but I'll let him rely on "TICKS N" for subsequent runs! LOL. Also, recall the big event last month that showed the 500 cutting way S over NC, and where did that end up? So I wonder about the far S position of 500 trough the models have currently. The storm will be deeply occluded well S of us, so despite being quite tight in pcpn gradient over the Mid-Atlantic, it should expand in size as it pulls ENE. Deep occlusions can be tricky as the precip gets more banded and SNE will not be catching the storm's max deepening for the really wild pcpn rates. That may not matter in the end, but food for thought. This is really a Miller A. Not a Gulf wave, but there is no primary low to redevelop, not in the topographic sense. The center does appear to jump offshore, but it jumps NW, not E or SE! That's more due to more an instant occlusion process than anything else.

CoastalWx thinks that 57" NW of ORF on the 12z GDPS is "KEWL!"

Uh-oh, getting a little snarky. And I am doing volcanic ash advisories, not fire wx!

One gets a 20"+ storm and still?

Clippers this season have solidly over-performed, and some odd events that were surprisingly good considered the flow. Recall that weekend event in Jan where there was no sfc low, and broad SW flow aloft w/ SSW winds at the sfc, and several inches occurred in interior SNE. Savoy MA had 10" which is the biggest non-LES/OES snowfall I can recall for a nothing-burger system and winds blowing the "wrong way" the entire time! CoastalWx always wants HRs. Well, that's not how it works!

The Feb 1989 event? Ugh. That was bad. Coastal NJ did well, and so did SE MA and Cape Cod.

I said the same thing for the 1986-87 winter here, the only "good" one in the "worst period EV-A" for SNE snow (1984-85 to 1991-92). I ended up w/ something like 68" in Woburn MA (about 14" above avg), However, it could have been well over 100" (unheard of at the time) if my area didn't miss the two Cape Cod-only blizzards in two weeks at end of Jan-start of Feb!

And a 1 in 10 shot CoastalWx will be satisfied w/ his total Weymouth snowfall!

And what about the ECMWF AI?

But the GDPS SEZ go for it!!! LOL.

Hearts On Fire?

Great analysis, and I learn a new vocab work..."DYAD!"

One reason why the ECMWF may be off on its own, it may not being handling (or handling better?) the Wed and Fri events. A lot IMHO hinges on how those impact things upstream and downstream. This is not a your typical calm pre-storm environment. It's a bit "crowded" aloft as to s/w. Subtle differences can magnify greatly as to details in 4-5 days.