vortex95

So finished a stretch of overnights ydy morning, and slept in long, so just looked at everything in the last hr, including previous runs. It's odd. You look at the solid full latitude 500 trough and it axis, and you wonder why a weak wave scoots out quickly ahead of the upper support, taking the baroclinic zone w/ it!!! Looking at 500 alone, it should much better at the sfc for a decent coastal. Also, now the models don't develop any real strong sfc low? Huh? Again, the 500 alone does not suggest this should happen! Big difference than 24 hr ago as well. The 500 cuts off *well* W of New England and is stronger than ydy, and moves over right over the region. That should promote a sfc low *not* scooting out to sea. However, it's not tilted below. The 700 low is co-located and goes right over the region, so we get dry slotted! But we never got any sig precip to begin w/! CoastalWx's worst nightmare! LOL. Moisture is quite limited w/ the upper low, so that will just mean half-decent snows across the mtns of NNE probably. Ydy was better actually, since the 500 low cut S of the region. And the two decent troughs that occur down the road, can't do much either, at least on the 06z GFS! The 06z ECMWF looks better for something this weekend. It's been piecemeal in regards to snowfall across the region so far this winter, no one storm can deliver widespread mdt-hvy SN. Just sub-regions, like LI to Cape Cod and NNE get localized decent snows. Now, we get a fragmented storm coming that that can't consolidate right!? I can see now why CoastalWx is really getting ticked!

I storm chased in the Plains most years 1992-2016.

Yes, IIRC, when you mentioned the Dec 1994 hybrid storm (really a 70 kt hurricane, and the it will likely get included as one officially once the Hurricane Reanalysis Project reaches the 90s - it is in the early 70s now), I went to CoastalWx, "how did you know about that?!" Well, a valid question b/c there was no snow w/ it!

06z GFS a bit odd. Fcst 15z Jan 16, it shows a nicely tucked back deep sfc low near ACK, yet the heavy snow area is surprisingly limited to the NW. 500 low is significantly stronger and still closed off one contour as it passes just S of the region.

He is just so much an uber snow weenie, probably the biggest one I have ever met, esp. in attitude and mood (up and down so much, depending on the pattern). I worked w/ him at WSI for a number of years, so I saw the entire gamut/range what it takes to be a snow weenie. We went back and forth on events so often. And even 10 years ago, he was still king of the number of posts on AmericanWx, and I used to say "where do you get the time???" And he would say, "a lot of the them on are other subforums like in sports" "Yea, right!, I would say!

I haven't followed the entire thread, so they may be content here already mentioned. This is a very complex forecast, and among the weirdest ones I can recall, or should I say challenging. This could be an odd duck event (CoastalWx immediately thinks of March 7-8, 2013)! It's not often you have two strong s/w troughs so close together in the East vying for "who wins!" And the eventual sensible wx outcome in terms of snowfall DCA-BOS may be something that is not apparent until it actually occurs, w/ some areas doing well and some areas not so well. CoastalWx will immediately go, "great, just another chance I get STIFFED for snow in Weymouth, just like I have been a lot this year!" In the broad pix across NAMR, it looks quite good. But as usual, it's all in the details. First, the good: 1) Mean trough position is solid in the E w/ axis good for a "CoastalWx Special." 2) Great amplified ridge western U.S. 3) A thing the earlier runs did not have is upstream ridging/blocking in the NATL. Now it does. It's not a strong block, but decent height anomalies are there. Downstream is just as important as upstream aloft! 4) 00z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET all show a quite strong closed 500 low well S either over the Carolinas or southern Mid-Atl. Something like that crossing the coast should result in decent sfc cyclogenesis. The UKMET makes the low go sharply negative, while the GFS/ECMWF keep it more neutral tilt. Now for the "problems": 1) The upstream kicker *right* behind it. Not good. And you can see on the 00z ECMWF 120 to 132, how strongly the kicker 500 trough deepens (120 and 132 hr ECMWF 500 attached). This messes w/ the lead 500 trough and starts to dampen it. This is not how KU snowstorms occur. 2) I don't like the moderately strong closed 500 low over central Quebec. It limits the s/w ridging ahead of the lead 500 trough. This should be over Hudson's Bay for the best weenie event. 3) The western U.S. ridge axis is a bit too far W for my liking, so the wavelengths broader than ideal. So you see, a truly complex forecast, much higher than usual for sensible wx specifics! Some musings/caveats: 1) Will the kicker trough try to "dumbbell" the lead trough and its sfc low more N? 2) The intense 500 low crossing the coast before it starts to dampen, how fast will the cyclogenesis be? How long will it stay tight/consolidated before elongation, if at all? 3) Just b/c 500 feature dampens, does not mean below that weakens much or at all. You can have a beast of a 850 and sfc low and not much more than a "dent" at 500 (Feb 1983 KU storm comes to mind). 4) Snowfall gaps or spotty. Look at 00z GFS, decent snow over the Mid-Atl, then a big gap PHL-NYC, and eastern New England does half-decent. GFS snowfall has the same idea and the UKMET to a lesser extent. Not the "smooth" snow event CoastalWx has been looking for (if Cape Cod gets crushed and Weymouth screwed - I can hear, "I'M DONE!!!" And so many on social media are acting like, "THIS IS IT, the BIG one!" just salivating over the 500 height anomalies colors (color table chosen make all the difference!), and saying something like, "something GOTTA happen w/ such wild anomalies like this! Big ridge in the W and intense trough in the East, good enough for me!" and just run w/ "end of days" hype. Well, we don't live at 500 mb, and just b/c the 500 looks great, does *not* mean the sfc is great. And they fail to see the finer details of the pattern I mentioned above that can totally ruin things.

I bet this is what has gone though CoastalWx's mind already!

Came across this. Sub in last time 6" and Weymouth MA, and we have the meme for CoastalWx's sentiment these days! LOL.

CoastalWx knows what's wrong with this map! "Why is it...?!"

Outstanding!

I know we are dealing w/ 10 days out, but the difference between the GFS and ECMWF op is immense. I attached the 30/00z GFS and the 29/12z ECMWF 500H/850T anomalies VT 18z Jan 8. They could not be any more different. The GFS has split flow w/ no polar jet present, just STJ and 500 heights above 540 all of the CONUS. 850 temps above avg most of the country and a large part of Canada. The ECMWF, OTOH, has a huge polar jet presence merging w/ the STJ and very cold ern US and mild wrn US. In addition, the GFS has little blocking near Greenland, while the ECMWF is through the roof! What's funny is that either of these patterns could give a "CoastalWx Biggie" to the NEUS. GFS pattern suggests more Miller A and ECMWF suggests more Miller B! Odd. Which one will "win?!"

And here are all New England tornados 2020-2024. Path Path Time(EST) Width Length -------- ----- ------- ME JUL 11, 2020 1431 0k 0inj 100y 5.1m EF0 OXFORD/CUMBERLAND - Tracked from Hiram to Sebago. Trees uprooted/snapped with a roof lost to one structure. CT AUG 2, 2020 1636 0k 0inj 30y 0.3m EF0 LITCHFIELD - Brief tornado in Sharon with uprooted trees and a greenhouse destroyed. First of four tornadoes from the same supercell. CT AUG 2, 2020 1705 0k 0inj 100y 1.7m EF1 LITCHFIELD - Second tornado from the same supercell with many trees uprooted/snapped in Falls Village. CT AUG 2, 2020 1736 0k 0inj 100y 0.5m EF0 LITCHFIELD - Third tornado from the same supercell moved through Norfolk with tree damage and powerlines downed. MA AUG 2, 2020 1758 0k 0inj 100y 8.1m EF0 BERKSHIRE/HAMPDEN - Fourth tornado from the same supercell with a track through Sandisfield, Tolland, and Blandford. One home damaged and many trees downed. CT AUG 4, 2020 1240 0k 0inj 25y 50y EF1 FAIRFIELD - Waterspout associated with Tropical Storm Isaias moved ashore in Westport. Considerable damage to one home and several trees snapped. NH AUG 22, 2020 1145 0k 0inj 50y 1.5m EF0 BELKNAP - Tornadic waterspout tracked southeast over Lake Winnipesaukee near Moose Island. NH AUG 22, 2020 1305 0k 0inj 50y 1.7m EF0 CARROLL - Trees uprooted/snapped and minor damage to two structures in Center Ossipee. CT AUG 27, 2020 1424 0k 0inj 75y 0.5m EF0 LITCHFIELD - Damage confined to trees in Kent. CT AUG 27, 2020 1436 0k 0inj 20y 100y EF0 LITCHFIELD - Brief tornado in Woodbury with numerous trees downed. CT AUG 28, 2020 1453 0k 0inj 500y 11.1m EF1 NEW HAVEN - Southeast track through Bethany, Hamden, and North Haven. Significant roof damage to structures and many trees uprooted/snapped. Damage $500,000. MA OCT 7, 2020 1650 0k 0inj 50y 0.5m EF0 NORFOLK - Tornado embedded in downburst winds in Millis. Damage confined to trees. ***** VT MAR 26, 2021 1240 0k 2inj 75y 0.7m EF1 ADDISON - Tornado associated with bow echo segment moved through Middlebury. Many trees downed and some structural and vehicle damage. CT APR 21, 2021 1349 0k 0inj 30y 1.0m EF0 LITCHFIELD - Sporadic tree damage in Kent. CT JUL 18, 2021 1711 0k 0inj 75y 1.9m EF0 TOLLAND - Track through Somers. Over two dozen trees uprooted/snapped and two vehicles destroyed by falling trees. Spawned by a low-topped supercell that contained no lightning. CT-MA AUG 19, 2021 0915 0k 0inj 50y 4.7m EF0 WINDHAM/WORCESTER - Discontinuous path through Thompson (CT) and Webster (MA). Damage was confined to trees and power lines. Path ended as a waterspout over Lake Chaubunagungamaug. Associated with former Tropical Storm Fred. MA AUG 19, 2021 1230 0k 0inj 35y 0.5m EF0 WORCESTER - Trees downed/snapped in Clinton. Associated with former Tropical Storm Fred. MA AUG 23, 2021 1042 0k 0inj 10y 0.8m EF0 MIDDLESEX - Brief tornado moved northwest in Marlborough. Tree downed on two vehicles. Spawned by a low-topped supercell associated with former Hurricane Henri. MA AUG 23, 2021 1130 0k 0inj 50y 0.1m EF0 WORCESTER - Brief tornado in Bolton with damage to a few trees. Moved northwest. Spawned by a low-topped supercell associated with former Hurricane Henri. MA AUG 23, 2021 1210 0k 0inj 50y 0.1m EF0 MIDDLESEX - Brief tornado in Stow with damage to a few trees. Moved northwest. Spawned by a low-topped supercell associated with former Hurricane Henri. MA AUG 23, 2021 1429 0k 0inj unk unk EF0 WORCESTER - Waterspout on Sunset Lake in Ashburnham. Spawned by a low-topped supercell associated with former Hurricane Henri. MA SEP 2, 2021 0030 0k 0inj 15y 0.1m EF0 BARNSTABLE - Short track through Dennis. Damage to two homes and three trees downed. Associated with former Hurricane Ida. CT SEP 9, 2021 0310 0k 0inj 75y 0.8m EF0 TOLLAND - Over 50 trees snapped/downed in Coventry. CT NOV 13, 2021 1530 0k 0inj 100y 3.6m EF0 NEW HAVEN - Tracked through Cheshire with significant tree damage and two vehicles crushed. First of five QLCS tornadoes in CT/RI on this day. CT NOV 13, 2021 1544 0k 0inj 300y 1.9m EF0 NEW HAVEN - Tree damage in Branford. CT-RI NOV 13, 2021 1648 0k 0inj 100y 6.1m EF0 WINDAM/PROVIDENCE - Path from Plainfield (CT) to Foster (RI). Damage confined to trees. CT-RI NOV 13, 2021 1654 0k 0inj 100y 1.4m EF1 NEW LONDON/WASHINGTON - Tracked from Stonington (CT) to Westerly (RI). Over 20 trees snapped/uprooted and minor structure damage. RI NOV 13, 2021 1718 0k 0inj 150y 1.5m EF0 WASHINGTON - Path from North Kingstown to Wickford. Numerous trees uprooted/downed and several power poles snapped. ***** NH MAY 16, 2022 1722 0K 0inj 330y 4.8m EF1 SULLIVAN - About 1000 trees snapped/uprooted with several power poles downed in North Charlestown and Claremont. VT JUL 18, 2022 1750 0k 0inj 50y 0.9m EF1 ADDISON - Multiple trees uprooted/snapped with one structure collapsed in Addison. VT JUL 18, 2022 1755 0k 0inj 25y 0.7m EF0 ADDISON - Tracked through Waltham and Vergennes with minor tree damage. Spawned by same supercell that produced the Addison tornado. NH JUL 18, 2022 2122 0k 0inj 250y 0.4m EF1 CHESHIRE - About 200 trees uprooted/snapped and a few outbuildings destroyed in Chesterfield. CT JUL 28, 2022 1735 0k 0inj 300y 5.0m EF0 LITCHFIELD - Track from Norfolk to Colebrook. Sporadic damage to trees and minor structure damage. ***** VT JUL 13, 2023 1704 0k 0inj 20y 11.9m EF0 RUTLAND - Track from Benson to Brandon with numerous trees downed and several utility poles snapped. MA JUL 16, 2023 0956 0k 0inj 250y 2.0m EF0 WORCESTER - Discontinuous path in North Brookfield. Damage confined to trees. NH JUL 27, 2023 1350 0k 0inj 200y 12.7m EF1 CHESHIRE - Moved through North Swanzey, Marlboro, and Dublin. Around 1000 trees uprooted/snapped with vehicle and minor structural damage. Tornado lasted 22 minutes. MA JUL 29, 2023 1917 0k 0inj 25y 0.2m EF1 NORFOLK - Damage mainly to trees in Foxboro. MA AUG 8, 2023 1020 0k 0inj 300y 0.9m EF1 PLYMOUTH - Numerous trees downed and snapped in Mattapoisett. MA AUG 8, 2023 1052 0k 0inj 650y 1,2m EF0 BARNSTABLE - Track in Barnstable. One tree and utility pole downed. CT AUG 12, 2023 2000 0k 0inj 30y 0.8m EF0 LITCHFIELD - Tracked through mostly open fields in Roxbury. CT AUG 18, 2023 0653 0k 0inj 200y 2,7m EF1 WINDHAM - Over 100 trees sheared off or downed in Scotland. RI AUG 18, 2023 0740 0k 1inj 250y 9.1m EF2 PROVIDENCE - Strong tornado moved through Scituate, Johnston, and North Providence. Vehicle lifted on I-295 with one injury. Hundreds of trees uprooted/sheared off and three homes with significant damage. MA AUG 18, 2023 0807 0k 0inj 80y 7.6m EF1 BRISTOL - Many trees uprooted/snapped and some structural damage in North Attleboro and Mansfield. Same supercell that produced the tornado in RI earlier. MA AUG 18, 2023 0837 0k 0inj 35y 0.1m EF0 NORFOLK - Short path in Stoughton with trees downed. MA AUG 18, 2023 0852 0k 0inj 100y 0.4m EF1 NORFOLK - Track in Weymouth. Numerous trees uprooted/snapped and minor roof damage to one home. CT/RI SEP 13, 2023 1500 0k 0inj 70y 1.6m EF1 WINDHAM/PROVIDENCE - Path through Killingly (CT) and Foster (RI). Tree damage and one home with minor roof damage. RI SEP 13, 2023 1520 0k 0inj 70y 0.2m EF1 PROVIDENCE - Over 75 trees uprooted/snapped and one outbuilding destroyed in Glocester. First of three tornadoes from same storm. RI SEP 13, 2023 1605 0k 0inj 60y 0.2m EF1 PROVIDENCE - Roof damage to one structure and damage to trees and a solar farm in Lincoln. Second of three tornadoes from same storm. MA SEP 13, 2023 1622 0k 0inj 70y 0.1m EF0 BRISTOL - Three trees sheared off in North Attleboro. Third of three tornadoes from same storm. ***** CT JUN 21, 2024 1554 0k 0inj 250y 2.0m EF0 LITCHFIELD - Sporadic tree damage in Harwinton. NH JUN 23, 2024 1609 0k 0inj 80y 3.4m EF1 CHESHIRE - Track in Dublin with dozens of trees snapped/uprooted. RI/MA JUN 26, 2024 2223 0k 0inj 100y 4.3m EF1 PROVIDENCE/BRISTOL - Tracked through Lincoln and Cumberland (RI) and North Attleboro (MA). A number of large trees were uprooted with some falling onto homes. MA JUN 26, 2024 2229 0k 0inj 50y 0.6m EF1 BRISTOL - Trees snapped/uprooted in Rehoboth. NH JUL 16, 2024 1829 0k 0inj 250y 1.8m EF1 GRAFTON - Over 500 trees snapped/uprooted with minor damage to five homes in Lyme.

Finalized Storm Data is done through 9/30. AFAIK, the 5 in MA on 9/6 is it. However, I strongly believe that there was a tornado at a golf course at Pocasset MA on 11/3 looking at damage pix. There were multiple suspect areas in RI and SE MA from the SQLN, a weak TDS, and rotation signatures. Latest in the year for New England's first tornado (or "spinner" as CoastalWx likes to say!) since 1952 (none that year, but unlikely given much less detection capabilities then). Second most tors from a single supercell on record here. #1 is the July 10, 1989 supercell (7) that tracked from ORH to PYM Co (including an F1 in CoastalWx's hometown of Brockton, but he missed it!). Path Path Time(EST) Width Length -------- ----- ------ MA SEP 6, 2025 1502 0k 0inj 50y 0.2m EF0 WORCESTER - Significant tree damage in Paxton. First of five from the same supercell. MA SEP 6, 2025 1506 0k 0inj 100y 0.1m EF0 WORCESTER - Several trees uprooted in Holden. Second of five from the same supercell. MA SEP 6, 2025 1508 0k 0inj 100y 0.2m EF1 WORCESTER - Significant tree damage in another part of Holden. Third of five from the same supercell. MA SEP 6, 2025 1525 0k 0inj 150y 0.6m EF1 WORCESTER - Many trees snapped/uprooted in Berlin. Fourth of five from the same supercell. MA SEP 6, 2025 1530 0k 0inj 100y 2.4m EF1 MIDDLESEX - Significant tree damage in Stow. Fifth of five from the same supercell.

Here's a decoded hourly obs string from the above storm for KFMH. Dendrite nirvana!

I always liked this SPS from NYC for the Dec 11-.12, 1992 blockbuster. They added in the bulletin text at the top "one of the worst coastal storms ever.' This was a time when strong wording was used, you *knew* it was big! Now almost everything is labeled "catastrophic!" Don't remind CoastalWx of this storm. He was SO mad living in Brockton at the time. He was just in a heavy mix of RASN while not less than 10 mi to the NW, buired! This is the one that started the epic period that lasted through 2015-16. 18" in Woburn. I have never seen seen *so* much rain in a first part of a storm, and then *so* much snow a second half of the storm . The total LEQ QPF for the storm was very high for a Nor'easter in a winter month.. Woonsocket RI had 7.14" (20" of that snow)! WWUS35 KNYC 111752 NYZ014>017-023-024-NJZ001-005-007-015-112030- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - ONE OF THE WORST COASTAL STORMS EVER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1250 PM EST FRI DEC 11 1992 ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON... ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... ...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER NEARBY NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS... ...FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3:15 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY...NEW YORK CITY... AND LONG ISLAND... ...STORM WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON... AN INTENSE STORM CENTER OVER DELAWARE BAY AT NOON TIME HAS BASHED THE METROPOLITAN AREA WITH WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE AND SOME OF THE WORST COASTAL FLOODING EVER ASSOCIATED WITH A NOREASTER. TIDES WERE REPORTED BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. THIS PUSHED TIDE LEVELS CLOSE TO IF NOT EXCEEDING THE ALL-TIME RECORD TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOREASTERS IN 1950. WIDESPREAD TIDAL FLOODING AND DAMAGE WERE REPORTED AT ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. THE FDR AND HARLEM RIVER DRIVES HAVE BEEN CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. ALL THE MAJOR HIGHWAYS HAVE BEEN CLOSED NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. WATER REACHED AS FAR INLAND AS MONTAUK HIGHWAY ON LONG ISLAND. SEVERE FLOODING HAS OCCURRED IN MONMOUTH COUNTY WITH MAIN ROADWAYS AND THE GARDEN STATE PARKWAY CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. SEVERAL TOWNS ALONG THE COAST HAVE DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY. THE SEA WALL COLLAPSED AT CEDAR GROVE BEACH...A CONDO COMPLEX COLLAPSED AT HIGHLAND. FLOODING HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH UP THE HUDSON RIVER AS PEEKSKILL AND STONY POINT WHERE A TRAILER PARK HAD TO BE EVACUATED. TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THREE TO FOUR FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MAJOR FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL STORM TIDE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS MORNING/S RECORD LEVEL. WIND GUSTS UP TO HURRICANE FORCE HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER OUTAGES HAVE OCCURRED THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN PROGRESS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...BUT GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH CAN STILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET... ESPECIALLY ON LONG ISLAND. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN NEW YORK CITY... LONG ISLAND AND NEARBY NEW JERSEY AND LOWER WESTCHESTER COUNTY HAS CAUSED WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING AND SOME STREAMS IF NOT ALREADY... SHOULD BE OVERFLOWING THEIR BANKS. MEANWHILE HEAVY SNOW IS IN PROGRESS THROUGHOUT HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND MOST OF ORANGE COUNTY. THE HEAVY WET SNOW HAS DOWNED POWER LINES AND TREES THROUGHOUT THESE AREAS WITH UP TO 14 INCHES REPORTED. AN ADDITIONAL THREE TO FIVE INCHES CAN ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE HEAVY SNOW TAPERS OFF. THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CATASTROPHIC WEATHER WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IF YOUR AREA IS BEING EVACUATED...LISTEN TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS. IF NOT...THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IS IN DOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS. WINDOWS HAVE BEEN BLOWN IN THROUGHOUT OUR AREA. DO NOT DRIVE UNLESS ITS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. DON/T BE A FOOL DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE LIFE YOU SAVE TODAY WILL BE YOUR OWN. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE OUT BY 5 PM. GIGI

Are you upset b/c of my earlier post? I am just trying to keep things in proper context/perspective. I don't know what to tell you as to the lame period now. Just one of those things when a certain areas in a period get ripped off, and some more than other even within the same lame period. It happens due to law of averages and large numbers, and in many locations around the world when you consider all that can and can not happen. You can slice and dice things down and find a lot more "screw zones" if you really work at it, and sometimes due to bad luck or random chance, they are going to end up right in your location. I can given you an exceptional example from Woburn. From the 1984-85 to 1991-1992 seasons, my biggest single storm total was only 11". That's really lame for such a long period, considering my location is ideal often for being just staying on the cold side of the coastal front, and a bit of QPF enhancement that occurs sometimes along the 128 area N&W of BOS in many solid nor'easters. You know how common a foot plus in single storms was 1992-93 to 2015-16? It truly that shows how exceptional that lame period was.

It's been lame I know, but just last 5 years, we have had two blockbusters than don't even come close to anything during the lame period 978-79 to 1991-92. I brought these up to CoastalWx recently. Dec 16-17, 2020 Snowfall map attached. 40"+ in a single snowstorm is rather rare in the Northeast and multiple reports. Sanbornton, NH: 42.4" - That is awfully close to the 24-hour snowfall record for the entire state of New Hampshire (49.3" atop Mount Washington, but that's almost cheating at over 6,000 feet). Binghamton, NY: 42.0" (40.0" at the official airport site) - That was good enough for the biggest snowstorm in the city's history! The old record was 35.3" in March of 2017. Binghamton averages about 82" in a full season, meaning they got about half in one day. Williamsport, PA: 24.7" - Another all-time record. And even more impressive, the city known for the Little League Baseball World Series only averages about 35" in an entire winter season. Alba, PA: 43.3" - This is currently under investigation and may end up as a new state of Pennsylvania 24-hour snowfall record. Ludlow, VT: 44.0" and Landgrove, VT: 42.0" - Both may have set new state Vermont 24-hour snowfall records. Jan 28-29, 2022 Snowfall map a attached. BOS 7th biggest snowstorm 24.3 tied record one day total 23.6" PVD 4th biggest snowstorms 19,3" biggest daily snowfall on record 18.8" Max amount 35.7" Bridgewater MA Do we forget so easy? Is an above avg snowfall season better than getting an isolated blockbuster in a below avg snowfall season? That's a matter of preference, but it not like we have lacked true KU classics during this current lame period. It's like the winter of 1996-97, well below avg snowfall for the season in much of southern New England, and then April Fools Blizzard made up for it being one of the most classic storms ever and brought my seasonal snowfall to almost exactly avg. Even CoastalWx I think will agree here!

I was just going by climate sites for a first guess. CON is -2.4" for the season, but they are +0.5" for Dec, so only parts of srn NH.

Here is the complete obs string for BOS for the Bliz of 93. I highlighted the "best winter ob EV-A" for BOS! I can hear CoastalWx pining already. 14-MAR-93 BOS SA 2351 40 SCT 160 SCT 220 -OVC 15 036/21/3/2822G31/964/PK WND 2837/13 PRESRR/ 278 1128 90409 33 CHH RADAT ZERO BOS SA 2252 160 SCT E220 OVC 15 012/21/2/2821G32/957/FEW CUFRA AC OVC PTLY THN PRESRR BOS SA 2153 120 SCT E220 OVC 15 983/22/1/2726G37/948/FEW CUFRA OVC PTLY THN PK WND 2737/51 PRESRR SUN VSB BOS SA 2052 42 SCT 120 SCT E220 OVC 15 958/22/2/2830G38/941/OVC PTLY THN PK WND 2846/02 PRESRR SUN VSB/ 290 1178 BOS SA 1953 42 SCT E120 OVC 15 927/23/3/2828G42/932/PK WND 2842/51 PRESRR BOS SA 1850 42 SCT M120 OVC 15 898/22/5/2629G38/923/PK WND 2942/29 PRESRR BOS SA 1750 42 SCT M120 OVC 15 868/22/6/2724G43/914/PK WND 2944/08 PRESRR/ 28108 177/ 90205 90409 22 BOS SA 1651 M42 BKN 95 BKN 120 OVC 12 844/24/10/2630G36/907/SB01E46 WND 23V31 PK WND 2737/44 PRESRR BOS SA 1552 45 SCT E80 OVC 12 819/26/10/2726G31/900/SE02 PK WND 2938/22 PRESRR BOS SA 1451 25 SCT M70 OVC 8S- 787/24/12/2729G36/890/PK WND 2938/33 PRESRR/ 39907 99117 177/ 90409 BOS SP 1428 25 SCT E80 BKN 5S-BS 2823G33/886 BOS SA 1354 -X E25 BKN 80 OVC 2S-FBS 749/25/19/2723G35/879/S3 WND 23V33 PRESRR BOS SA 1255 -X M8 BKN 25 OVC 2S-FBS 707/29/25/3015G28/867/S3 PRESRR BOS SP 1200 -X M11 OVC 11/2S- 2117G24/857/R04RVR16V18 S4 BOS SA 1150 -X 11 SCT E15 OVC 11/2S- 670/33/29/2119G27/856/R04RVR16V24 S4/ 31404 15// 90409 32 20187 CHH RADAT DLAD BOS SP 1140 -X E19 OVC 11/2S- 2022G27/854/R04RVR24V60+ BOS SP 1133 M19 OVC 2S- 2020/854 BOS SP 1109 M19 OVC 5S- 2024G31/852 BOS SP 1059 M19 OVC 21/2S- 1929G35/851/VSBY SW-W 11/2 BOS SA 1050 M19 OVC 8S- 653/36/29/1932G41/851/IPE15 PK WND 1951/25 BOS SP 1017 M17 OVC 4S- 1929G38/849/IPE15 BOS SA 0950 E20 BKN 38 OVC 5S-IP- 653/37/34/1928G37/850/RESIPB38 PK WND 2038/27 BOS SP 0939 E20 BKN 38 OVC 5S-IP- 2028G35/850/IPB38 BOS SP 0933 E20 BKN 38 OVC 7R- 2028G38/850 BOS SA 0854 20 SCT E38 OVC 7R- 656/38/35/2021/851/ 64602 15// 90409 BOS SA 0750 20 SCT E38 OVC 7R- 665/41/37/2026G33/854/RB35/ 98000 BOS SP 0732 20 SCT M38 OVC 8 1915/855 BOS SP 0719 E20 BKN 40 OVC 8 1814/856/WSHFT 17 FEW STFRA 8 HND BOS SP 0704 E20 BKN 40 OVC 8 1213G18/857/WSHFT 03 FEW STFRA 8 HND PRESFR BOS SA 0650 E20 BKN 40 OVC 8 683/36/32/0612/859/FEW STFRA 8 HND BOS SP 0624 8 SCT E20 BKN 40 OVC 8 0310/862 BOS SA 0550 8 SCT 28 SCT E40 OVC 8 702/33/30/0410G17/865/CIG RGD ZRE31 PRES UNSTDY/ 72972 15// 90410 36 BOS SP 0532 8 SCT 28 SCT E40 OVC 7 0414G22/865/ZRE31 CIG RGD BOS SP 0515 28 SCT E40 OVC 5ZR-F 0414G24/866/FEW STFRA 8 HND CIG RGD PCPN VRY LGT BOS SA 0450 8 SCT M28 OVC 3ZR-F 709/32/30/0212G25/867/CIG RGD REZRB38 BOS SP 0433 8 SCT M28 OVC 4R-F 0219G32/868/CIG RGD BOS SA 0350 M8 BKN 17 BKN 70 OVC 5R-F 714/35/32/0118G26/869/CIG RGD PCPN VRY LGT BOS SA 0254 M8 BKN 17 OVC 5R-F 731/36/32/0123G36/874/CIG RGD WND 31V06/ 79968 99102 17// 90410 BOS SP 0223 M8 BKN 16 OVC 6R-F 0318G30/874/CIG RGD PCPN VRY LGT PRESFR BOS SA 0154 M7 BKN 15 OVC 21/2R-F 746/36/33/0328G38/878/R04RVR35 SFC VSBY 3 CIG RGD R- OCNLY R PK WND 0338/53 PRESFR BOS SP 0133 M7 BKN 15 OVC 2RF 0123G34/882/R04RVR28V35 CIG RGD R OCNLY R- WND 35V06 BOS SA 0051 -X M5 OVC 1R-F 802/35/33/0428G36/894/R04RVR08V10 F5 TE18 MOVD N RB22IPSE34 PK WND 0551/2356 PRESFR SNOINCR 1/1/12 BOS SP 0038 -X M5 OVC 1R-F 0527G40/893/R04RVR06V08 F5 IPE34 PRESFR BOS SP 0024 W5 X 1/2R-IPS-BS 0528G44/894/R04RVR16V24 DRFTG SNW PRESFR BOS SP 0019 W5 X 1/4IP+S-BS 0530G44/896/R04RVR12V24 TE18 MOVD N DRFTG SNW PRESFR BOS SP 2359 W5 X 1/4T+IP+S-BS 0537G51/905/R04RVR12V22 TB57 W MOVG N OCNL LTGIC DRFTG SNW PRES UNSTDY BOS SA 2350 W5 X 1/4IPS-BS 832/33/32/0638G49/903/R04RVR12V16 TE20 MOVD N IPB03 DRFTG SNW PK WND 0654/2253 PRESFR SNOINCR 1/11/12/ 79907 ONE 99163 90412 BOS SP 2323 W5 X 1/4SIPBS 0632G49/912/R04RVR12 TE22 MOVD N DRFTG SNW PRESFR BOS SP COR 2304 W1 X 1/4T+SIPBS 0641G50/914/R04RVR06-V12 T OVHD-NW MOVG N OCNL LTGIC IPB03 DRFTG SNOW PRESFR BOS SP 2304 W1 X 1/4TSIPBS 0641G50/914/R04RVR06-V12 T OVHD-NW MOVG N OCNL LTGIC IPB03 DRFTG SNW PRESFR BOS RS 2250 W0 X 0TS+BS 875/31/31/0647G62/916/R04RVR06-V06 TB50 SW MOVG N OCNL LTGIC DRFTG SNW PK WND 0670/33 PRESFR SNOINCR 3/11/12 BOS SA 2150 W1 X 0S+BS 942/30/30/0643G52/936/R04RVR08V10 DRFTG SNW PK WND 0661/06 PRESFR SNOINCR 3/8/9 BOS SP 2113 W1 X 0S+BS 0646G61/946/R04RVR08V10 PRESFR BOS SA 2054 W5 X 1/16S+BS 995/30/29/0737G50/951/R04RVR10V14 DRFTG SNW PK WND 0752/16 PRESFR SNOINCR 2/5/6/ 79940 99146 90406 BOS SA 1950 W5 X 1/16S+BS 044/31/29/0733G41/966/R04RVR08V12 DRFTG SNW PK WND 0743/17 PRESFR SNOINCR 2/3/4 BOS SP 1941 W5 X 1/8S+BS 0733G39/968/R04RVR08V14 DRFTG SNW PRESFR BOS SP 1926 W6 X 1/4S+BS 0730G43/971/R04RVR12V22 DRFTG SNW PRESFR BOS SA 1852 W5 X 1/8S+BS 095/31/29/0830G42/981/R04RVR18V24 DRFTG SNW PK WND 0842/43 PRESFR SNOINCR 1/1/2 BOS SP 1839 W5 X 1/4S+BS 0830G39/983/R04RVR14V20 DRFTG SNW PRESFR BOS SP 1823 -X E5 OVC 1/2SBS 0828G34/987/R04RVR18V22 S8 PRESFR BOS SP 1804 -X M5 OVC 1/2SBS 0829G36/992/R04RVR16V26 S8 PRESFR BOS RS 1750 -X M5 OVC 3/4S-BS 141/32/29/0824G29/995/R04RVR30V35 S8 PRESFR/ 77304 15// 90401 27 BOS SP 1717 -X E9 OVC 3/4S- 0924/998/R04RVR30V40 S7 PRESFR BOS SA 1650 -X M15 OVC 1VS- 161/32/27/0821/001/R04RVR40V55 VSBY 3/4V11/2 S5 PRESFR BOS SP 1611 -X E15 OVC 1S- 1019G25/007/R04RVR35V60+ S5 BOS SA 1550 E32 BKN 90 OVC 3S- 188/33/22/1018/009/PRESFR BOS SA 1450 M38 BKN 90 OVC 12S- 213/33/18/1017/016/SB28/ 83000 157/ BOS SA 1350 E55 OVC 15 227/33/17/1112/020/VIRGA OVHD BOS SA 1250 70 SCT E120 OVC 15 235/32/14/1207/023/VIRGA SW-OVHD CHH RADAT ZERO BOS SA 1150 70 SCT E120 OVC 15 244/31/14/1407/025/VIRGA S-SW/ 610 107/ 90401 27 CHH RADAT DLAD

Here is some obs strings in the pre-METAR format (SAO) that I saved in real-time back in the day. I'll post more separately on the same thread w/ time. The SAO format is more concise than METAR, and some differences. The key ones I will note here: X means sky obscured. -X mean sky partially obscured. W is vertical visibility. Since these are pre-ASOS/AWOS, they are manually-taken obs which i kind of miss b/c you could better quantify what was going on, esp. in snowstorms b/c of the sky obscuration and viability. ASOS/AWOS do not report anything less than 1/4 mi and does odd things w/ sky obscurations at times. It seem less impressive than manual obs. Visibility for manually-taken obs would go lower than 1/4 mi and get reported in 1/8 and 1/16 incitements when below a mi. And you could get zero visibility reported, so you really knew when it absolutely pounding S+! SNINCR was reported as SNOINCR x/y/z - x means the last hr, y is the amount since the last synoptic hr, and z is SOG. SOG is reported 904xx. 24 hr pcpn is a 2xxxx group. Obs start w/ the earlier at the bottom, and latest at the top. Any questions, please ask. BANTER time for CoastalWx! NORLUN for PWM Mar 1992 21-MAR-92 PWM RS 1153 29 SCT M55 OVC 7 132/27/25/0208/992/SE46/ 21271 15// 90411 25 20079 RADAT ZERO PWM SP 1129 -X M8 BKN 20 OVC 11/2S- 0507/991/S4 PWM SP 1116 -X M3 OVC 1/2S 0209/991/S7 PWM RS 1052 W1 X 3/8S 127/27/25/0309/990 PWM SP 1037 -X M1 OVC 1/2S 0308/990/S5 PWM SP 1008 M14 BKN 27 OVC 1S- 0307/989 PWM SP 0953 -X M1 OVC 5/16S 0310/989/S8 SNOINCR 4/10/11 PWM SP 0858 W0 X 1/16S+ 0112/988 PWM SA 0851 W0 X 1/8S+ 120/28/27/0109/988/SNOINCR 3/7/7 WND SHFT 0757/ 20749 90407 PWM SP 0834 W1 X 1/8S+ 0505/988 PWM SP 0812 -X M2 OVC 1/8S+ 0707/987/S8 PWM SP 0758 W0 X 1/16S+ 0406/987/WND SHFT 57 PWM SA 0752 W0 X 1/8S+ 117/28/27/3412/987/SNOINCR 3/4/4/ 98661 PWM SP 0702 -X M2 OVC 13/4S- 3208/987/S3 PWM RS 0650 M7 BKN 20 OVC 21/2S- 113/30/27/3204/986/GRDL WND SHFT PWM RS 0550 10 SCT M21 OVC 3S- 113/30/27/1308/986/ 60308 15// 90401 35 PWM SP 0529 10 SCT M17 OVC 2S- 1309/986 PWM SP 0504 -X 7 SCT M19 OVC 11/2S- 1410/986/S2 PWM RS 0451 -X M7 BKN 20 OVC 11/2S- 113/30/28/1408/986/S2 PWM SP 0438 7 SCT M19 OVC 3S- 1510/986 PWM SP 0415 5 SCT M13 OVC 4S- 1408/986 PWM SP 0404 -X M5 BKN 8 OVC 4S- 1406/986/S1 PWM RS 0352 -X M7 BKN 21 OVC 3S- 113/30/28/1506/986/S1 SNOINCR 1/1/1 PWM SP 0336 -X M8 BKN 27 OVC 2S- 1607/986/S2 PWM SP 0329 -X 8 SCT M27 OVC 1S- 1607/987/S2 PWM SP 0312 -X M7 OVC 1/2S 1706/987/S6 PWM SP 0306 -X M17 OVC 2S- 1706/987/S2 PWM SA 0252 M27 BKN 31 OVC 8S- 117/30/26/1807/987/SB0148E03B14/ 00300 15// PWM SP 0229 21 SCT M27 OVC 10SW- 1707/988/PCPN VRY LGT PWM RS 0153 M30 BKN 40 OVC 15SW- 118/31/22/1708/988/SB48 PWM SA 0051 M28 OVC 15 115/31/21/1508/987 PWM SA 2350 M29 BKN 60 OVC 15 113/31/20/1609/986/BINOVC OVHD/ 217 15// 35 RADAT ZERO NORLUN for CHH Feb 1993 19-FEB-93 CHH SA 2045 OVC 2SW- 21/M/0214G20/997 CHH SA 1955 OVC 1SW-BS 22/M/3415G20/996/ 90418 CHH SA 1855 OVC 1BS 22/M/3415G22/995/ 90418 CHH SA 1755 X 1/16SW+BS 22/21/3415G26/995/ SNOINCR 2/9/18 CHH SA 1655 X 1/4S-BS 25/M/0118G26/994/ 90416 CHH SA 1550 X 1/2SBS 24/M/0318G25/994/ SNOINCR 1/3/16 CHH SA 1450 X 3/4S- 25/M/0115/993 CHH SA 1345 W0X 0S+ 24/M/3415G22/992/ SNOINCR 2/2/15 CHH SA 1245 X 1/8S+BS 23/M/3515G25/991/1/4/13 SNOW CHH SA 1145 X 1/16S+ 24/M/3513/985/9 INCHES -4 INCHES LAST HR. CHH SA 1045 X 1/4S+ 24/M/3215G25/985 CHH SA 0945 OVC 1/2S- 24/M/3213G26/985 CHH SA 0845 OVC 1S- 24/M/3513/985 CHH SA 0745 OVC 3S- 26/M/3513/985 CHH SA 0545 BKN 7 26/M/0205/984

I didn't catch that. When did that occur? Later in the storm as well like SE MA? Long Island certainty has done well this month! That S Coast/Cape Cod storm earlier this month dumped up to 9", and now up to 8" w/ this past storm.

That's the right attitude! Each storm has exceeded your expectations!

BOS avg December snowfall (1991-2020) is 9". So that's likely your avg accounting for further S and inland a bit. Better than recent Decembers, no? I would say the area bounded by BOS-PVD-ORH-CON-PSM has not cashed in as much as Cape Cod, the South Coast, western New England, and a large part of northern New England for snowfall so far this season. We are doing it piecemeal in the region The fact CoastalWx's area has been lame is irrelevant to the big pix. IMBY syndrome...want me to call the WHAN-bu-lance? You can't expect every winter or storm to be the PT level, like Bliz of 97, 05, or 13! And then this response, "but it is been so lousy for so long!" I don't know what to tell you. These periods happen. And CoastalWx knows this from when he was a kid in the 80s. And in the here and now, we seem to be on the right track overall. Like I said before, If Jan-Feb acts like Dec, it's going to end up a pretty good winter for most!

Saw 3 reports from Weymouth -- 4.2, 3.5, and 3.3. Which one was CoastalWx? Overall, a quite good event for Dec, esp. CT/RI/SE MA where ocean temps often are a big issue this early. Many locations now have above avg snowfall for Dec. Couple that w/ the solid snowfall in NNE, best winter month for the region in some time! So I don't want to hear it from CoastalWx!

I looked further after you mentioned the dry slot. Now this is whacked. While the sfc low was just E of the Delmarva, the center of the 700 low was close to KRUT! What? So wait, the sfc low by conventional standards is too far S for a SNE hit, yet the 700 low is well N which reeks of big dry slot and pcpn flip. So we ended up w/ the "CoastalWx Quandary." We were fighting dry Arctic air mass at low-levels and at the same time loss of RH at mid and upper levels is moving in? Lose both ways? A squeeze play, dry air storm! And a surprise wild SNOINCR event in CT. Once again, the weirdness of this storm sticks out.