vortex95

Then there's the 18z ECMWF..."hope floats!"

Mid-level circulation still quite intact just W of ALB now. Parts of MA may get a "wild turkey surprise" from this. Things could get weird w/ this thing interacting w/ OES later.

DXR probably close to 3" in one hr. METAR KDXR 262353Z VRB03KT 1/2SM SN VV005 M06/M08 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP171 P0019 6//// T10561083 11033 21061 58021

Does the 6" in Weymouth sound that far off now?

But the mid-level mesoscale feature in NY! It just has to propagate to NZW!

Hmmm, rotation enhances pcpn rates. And that's really far N of the sfc low. Since this system is falling into the mean trough position, this feature may not wane as much as we think, esp. being mesoscale.

I knew CoastalWx was a big weenie after the Dec 9, 2005 "snowcane" event. He couldn't stop talking about the roar of the wind that woke him up when the wind shifted NW in GHG and then turned to +SN! He couldn't get enough of my wx archives I had for text products and obs at work. Actually, given the recent NORLUN, I will post on a separate thread in the next few days the obs from the Mar 1992 PWM event and the Feb 1993 CHH event, plus some other events.

Yes. And thanks for putting up w/ my verbosity and dogmatic statements at times on NESC! I try to word my posts very careful. It's all in the delivery and presentation. Social is tricky these days.

IIRC far NW tip of Wilmington?

So much for the CoastalWx dry air issues. FGEN FTW!

I worked w/ CoastalWx for over 10 years at WSI. Now work as contractor for NESDIS in College Park MD. Grew up and lived in N Woburn until coming here. I am contemplating moving back when I retire (not for a while still though).

"The Spider"

Worried about a dry slot when the sfc low passes more than 300 mi S of you?

6" so you can officially declare that stupid no 6" snowfall drought OV-A!

Sounds like a Richmond VA area complaint from "MIDLO!" So mild just to the W. 95% of the CONUS currently has 500 heights AOA 540 dm. And w/ 554 dm heights over NE PA? What do they expect?

And the next thought? "OMG, last one was in the 95-96 winter!!!!!" Make this winter a LOCK!!!!"

Some other thoughts on this event. It's not a typical clipper as it moves SE the entire time. It also can't rapidly develop offshore, at least initially b/c it is too "crowded." The strong cold front and disturbance aloft the gave the SN to northern New England yesterday? That system rapidly developed last night S of Nova Scotia and is now intense (see 12z sfc map attached). So when it is crowded like this, another trough/disturbance so close behind it often has no "room" to develop much, and will get forced more SE rather than E. As I mentioned yesterday, this is a *darn* good snowfall for such a weak low pressure. The sfc low does not get below 1006 mb as it passes. Usually, a snowfall of this magnitude has low pressure below 1000 and more often closer to 990. And aloft at 500, it is nothing special either. Just a little "dent" in strong WNW flow. The strong Arctic high pressure to our NE supplying a wedge of low-level cold air damning to the SW over the region makes all the difference here. Who would have thought having the mean trough position too far *east* for an East Coast weenie blockbuster could do this? CoastalWx recently told me, "this pattern BLOWS!" Ok, does it now? And it is not a case of the ambient pressure field in place prior keeping the low from not getting that "deep." The sfc high to the NE is "only" 1033 mb and center well NE near Labrador, and, as I said above, nothing much at all at 500, and even at 850, it barely cuts off one contour, so not a low-least beast like a Gulf wave often is. The 18z HRRR is forecasting up to 18" in central NY (Cooperstown area). There is no lake effect snow involved here and elevation in that area is not a factor (no little bulls-eyes on the higher areas, it's a broad 12-18" area), so 12-18" is a lot for such a weak storm like this. That much synoptic snow from a clipper? And another factor I think? It's been very mild W of New England across a large part of the country, and very wet storms have been impacting the West, so more moisture in the mean is available overall and associated w/ the clipper. So you can "blame" the more snow here from mild winter temps partially! Imagine that.

Not a "tickle?"

You have solid high RH at 700 and 500 mb on the NAM/GFS thru 12z Sat. Synoptic snow superimposed on OES? I don't see an issue, esp. in Weymouth! Seeding the OES from above, dancin' in the streets time for CoastalWx? LOL. And the 18z NAM shows actually shows an little higher QPF band pointed right at Weymouth, and 18z HRRR shows 5" right over Weymouth. 12z GFS had a broad slightly higher QPF area over ern MA.

I was accounting for the snow ratios which should be 15:1 or more NYC N&E. The RRFS and HRRR are in good agreement w/ a max 10-15" swath, just I said 12-18" accounting for "surprises" (don't underestimate FGEN!)

A little perspective for those complaining how "lousy" the pattern is (Re: CoastalWx LOL) and the upcoming event. How often do you see a swath of 12-18" in the NEUS *not* from LES/OES/NORLUN and w/o any sig orographics from basically a weak clipper (pressure gets no lower than 1007 mb). Find me one! This will make two foot plus events in the NEUS in 3.5 days that impact high population areas. W/ this upcoming event, it also shows how important strong Arctic high pressure to the N for sig snow. Solid damning w/ low-level Arctic air in place is paramount. Everyone seems to look for that 960 mb superbomb that "drills for oil" off just off the coast, and don't realize that you can do well in a gradual, piecemeal fashion from more subtle events. In other words, swinging for HRs all the time and ignoring singles and doubles is going to result in frustration/disappointment often. I think many of us were spoiled from the epic period 1992-93 to 2015-16. But so far this winter in the NEUS, you add up all that has happened, it is much better than the last several. Sure, some areas still are "holed" (like South Weymouth ), but one needs to look at the big pix. I still think that 4/063 SOG at Mt Mansfield earlier this month, which was by far the most SOG so early for the location, is nothing to shake a stick at! If this kind of "subtle" winter pattern for snowfall events continues for the rest of the winter, it's going to turn out pretty good for many I think.

CoastalWx favorite!

The problem, and this is a very common logical fallacy, is "recency bias." What is occurring *now* or in the last few years, that how it's seems it always have been and that how it going to be "4-EVA!" Also, we wallow when is sucks so bad, doesn't matter how awesome it was not that long ago, or you were there to experience it in all its glory. So it is perception thing. That fact we lacked clippers for a period? It happens, and often on an irregular basis. Also, when ppl keep bringing it up, that affects our perception as well, and negativity is contagious (CoastalWx take note!) LOL. It all comes around eventually. It did after the overall snow drought 1978-79 to 1991-92 in New England, and esp. 1984-85 to 1991-92. Then the "dendrite" floodgates opened in 1992-93 and an absolutely epic period through 2015-16. It still boggles my mind what occurred during that period, including some of the weirdest and atypical snow events. CoastalWx's favorite is March 8-9, 2013 -- sfc low 600 mi SE of ACK and yet 30" at Blue Hill. One of biggest forecast busts in modern times for the area.

This sums it all up perfectly for CoastalWx. The first two boxes -- what is said!