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vortex95

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  1. vortex95
    Correction. Not Key West 7/24/26, It is actually this: Corrotoman River in Mollusk, Lancaster County VA 7/4/22 https://x.com/deZabedrosky/status/2081401272578531578 That's @weatherwiz on the dock letting the the vortex come over him! Note that in order to listen to the audio and full size a video on X, you have to login now. About as classic "true" waterspout as you can get. Thin tall tube, slow moving, no rain, LTG, or wall cloud present, just TCU. Notice that after the base vortex moves over the dock, it re-emerges more intense and focused. This happens sometimes for spouts when the first come ashore. The rapid increase in friction can strengthen the base temporarily .
  2. vortex95
    Dolphin appears to be en route to a very large eye. Inner eyewall is quite thin on W side. Not sure if drier air has got entrained into the W quad of the system or it is artifact of the next ERC. Either way, a lot of time still for this TC to evolve further, and no reason to think it will not end up being a "donut!"
  3. vortex95
    PT time for @weatherwiz b/c 2% spinner risk for CT now! I can see that. Even though winds are unidirectional sfc-aloft, they are quite strong at 925 and 850. 30-50 kt W to E from central CT to ern MA. Anything over 30 kt means spinner business. 30 -50 kt at 850 as well. Attached is GFS sounding for ern CT at 18z. 38 kt 0-6 km shear is enoughs for supercell and 30 kt 0-1 km shear is excellent for spinner potential. HRRR shows large areas of 0-3 km CAPE 100+ so there is your low-level stretching. Classic tropical tor set up where best winds, relatively speaking, are at low-levels.
  4. vortex95
  5. vortex95
    One thing for future reference. We have so many models now to chose from, and recently I had been looking at the ICON model. I've been watching it for the past several days, and it has a clear high bias for TC intensity in Dolphin's case. It tends to initialize the storm too low pressure and intensify it to the 880s once near China. That doesn't make much sense given how Dolphin keeps expanding from ERCs and its large eye already. And also it continues to gain latitude. Empirical observations over time show that TCs almost never regain their former intense "glory" after their initial first intense peak (often w/ a pinhole eye). So keep the ICON in mind for this b/c you know how some will pick the model that shows the absolute worst, and run w/ that! I still would like to see how the ICON handles long-tracked systems in other basins.
  6. vortex95
    What were some of the bigger totals you have heard? I had one person tell me 3" in Chevy Chase.
  7. vortex95
    One thing that has been consistent, Well-defined circuation at 700/500 w/ a pool of high PWATs, so that may eventually add to rainfall up and down the E Coast.
  8. vortex95
    HRRR and RRFS are in good agreement swaths up to 4" both SNE and NNE. Given how local media really leaned into drought conditions, this should silence them, EXCEPT BOS prop is still -8.45" for the yea (2" too low from the snow LEQ issues), while PVD/PWM are less than -3" and ORH/much of central and western new England are AOA Y-T-D! And the HRRR/RRFS seem to screw BOS again for sig rain. Gonna be a microdrought area soon! But no real impact since draining downstream and reservoirs to the W are filling up. Local drought is not the same as widespread drought. And short-term drought everywhere is not an issue now, it just long-term drought for deficits. I'm sure everyone's gardens large and small are doing just fine after the wet July, as one example!
  9. vortex95
    Tropical sounding. Lapse rates all below 5.5 C/km, but that's ok b/c the deep layer high dew points make up for it, and just a small amount of heating sets things off. That's why the convective temp is so low, as noted. K-index 38 and PWAT 2.16", so there is your juice! 0-6 km shear 31 kt so close to support supercells. Low-level turning on the hodograph not bad either.
  10. vortex95
    Looks pretty good for gully-washer tstms Sunday. GFS/ECMWF show PWATs over 2" (max 2.5") for the entire region. SW to NE training a good bet in some areas w/ the HRRR showing a 5.93" max just SW of DC. RRFS is similar to the HRRR. just not as high w/ the QPF maxes, but the point is the atmosphere is primed to big rains. A full-latitude, positively-titled trough to our W w/ broad SW flow over us should easily support some big QPF. Showers/sct tstms already in wrn VA and it all slowly moves E during the day, continuing into early Mon AM. Svr risk is marginal. Some supercell structures could be supported for short times. 01/18z ECMWF gives SHRA/TSRA every day through Thu. Nothing stands out for sig svr, just persistent, moist SW cyclonic flow, so lots of tstm activity.
  11. vortex95
    Let's flood out wrn CT again! 00z HRRR.
  12. vortex95
    It doesn't! Imagine that!
  13. vortex95
    You have to ask yourself, "why wouldn't the air dry out AM to PM on a sunny day? " "Thankfully" for what? Diurnal temp range the the sun coming up??? Was the AM moisture causing "problems? Fluff post (the X link)!
  14. vortex95
  15. vortex95
    I still think it is funny that some local TV media will fcst highs something like 77-84, and call it "hot." Gotta push that heat all the time!
  16. vortex95
    @CoastalWx all excited w/ the leaves changing already I bet! Now it is just the "540 thickness line watch" for first time!
  17. vortex95
    It has at least 6 days before landfall. so a lot of time to form a giant eye.
  18. vortex95
    Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) products that give very detailed surface wind profiles for TCs. Click on the storm you want and then "profile plots" for the max winds in each quadrant and RMW text output, among other things. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/socd/mecb/sar/sarwinds_tropical.php
  19. vortex95
    Looks like Dolphin is ready to form a huge eye. Several hours ago, I got about 20 nm for a eye diameter. Based on what I see on EIR now, the new larger eye is going be be close to 60 nm!
  20. vortex95
    Yes, higher OHC means what can form and intensify has better potential. However, one thing I have learned is that there is lot more to it, and it is surprising/counterintuitive at times. This underscores what I say a lot, you can't think of the global system in a 1-2-3 linear manner. Human nature is conditioned though for this, as in correlation = causation in a very basic sense! Look at this BAMS paper concerning EPAC and WPAC TC intensification rates. You'd think the WPAC would be "better" for everything concerning TCs b/c it is the most active region on the globe, but that is not true. noaa_54129_DS1.pdf
  21. vortex95
    When you see a ton of blue dots for svr winds reports in an area that first day and no red dots for tors, always go back and check the SPC reports for that day for several days after the event. Sometimes lots of red dots show up from post-storm surveys. In the SEUS for big winter/spring QLCS events w/ many winds reports. I've seen more than a dozen tors show up eventually as post-storm surveys are done.
  22. vortex95
    94W E of the Philippines is clearly a TD, if not a min TS. LLCC is well-defined and core convection is persistent. JTWC does not even acknowledge it as "low" for a chance of development, probably b/c the models don't do anything w/ it, but so what? It is what is in the here and now, and so what if it exists only for a short time as a TC?
  23. vortex95
    SAL is another big factor, esp. in recent years. 2024, the SAL was dominant in the MDR. The 700 and 500 temp anomalies were impressive, and that why the heart of the season was squashed and why we did not get the fcst "2005 redux" in 2024. I recall seeing 0 C at 500 in part of the MDR in Aug-Sep 2024, and this was w/ no ridging present. It is not often you get 0 C at 500. In the core of a Cat 1 hurr or higher and under the hottest continental ridges. So to have 0 C at 500 just "there" w/ nothing atypical synoptically, you want to take about "extreme?" The SAL was so strong in 2024, it extended to the EPAC and that suppressed things big time initially, resulting in the latest first NS in the EPAC since reliable satellite records (1970). In 2025, what stood out was the African dust outbreaks. They usually peak in June and wane in July, but they went on into Sep, again knocking down MDR formation big time. 2025 was unique b/c all the major hurricanes except Melissa peaked and got intense outside the deep tropics. So what happened in just the last two seasons in the ATLC were non-trivial as to suppression of TC activity, and something that needs to researched more and included in the discussion. It is esp. important b/c of all the TC basins in the world, the ATLC is the most variable.
  24. vortex95
    Far too much focus on SSTs -- column TPW (and by extension instability) and shear is what it is all about. All the anomalously high SST/OHC is meaningless if the atmosphere does not cooperate. Something that seems to elude many -- "but the ocean is SO hot!!!" TCs are more tenuous that the MSM thinks. A lot has to line up for one to form, and even more for one to get intense. SSTs are more than warm enough around the globe in much of the tropics and subtropics year-round to support strong TCs, and how many named storms form each year and how many get intense? And formation is confined to distinct parts of the year in each basin, again showing how what goes on in the atmosphere dictates things. Of all the 3 primary factors, SSTs are least important. You can get hurricanes up to Cat 2 status w/ SSTs below the 26 C threshold, and min hurricanes as low as 20 C as long as the TPW and shear are favorable. But if the wind shear is high and/or the column is dry, you get nothing to even develop in the first place, despite torch SSTs! You don't need to do research or run a model to see this, Empirical observations alone over time clearly show this. That's a sig problem these days, some are so caught up in "what the models say" they forget to look at what actually happens in the real world, currently and in the past. Empirical. real-world observations override what models say every time. Basic common sense and logic!
  25. vortex95
    Yah, but maybe we can get a grazing PRE like Arthur from July 2014!
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