vortex95

We BIG snow! Probably the most 40"+ reports in a NEUS storm other than March 1888 and Feb 1969.

"I WANT MORE!!!!" LOL.

I know what CoastalWx is thinking now w/ the 00z HRRR -- March 8-9, 2013! Not quite the 600 mi SE of ACK the sfc low was then, but it still 300 mi! 30" at MQE in the 2013 event. One of biggest modern day fcst busts here for snow! The 500 low elongation axis is now just W of the region, and the low cuts off a decent distance S of LI on some models. So a weenie pseudo "backlash" OES combo appears likely.

Given how crappy the previous 4 winters have been, this winter has been outstanding. We can't always have a 1992-93, 1995-96, 2004-05, or 2014-15 every time for a "good" winter. CoastalWx mindset: "If it is not a Bliz of '13 RIPPER w/ everything but the kitchen sink falling out of the sky, I'm dissatisfied!"

It's PT time for CoastalWx! RRFS FTW! Such a slow evolution of the 500 trough over New England Sat-Sun. It just doesn't sweep though, it elongates and cuts off for some really good OES weenie bands IMHO. 500 temps drops as low as -38 C, which is about as cold as you will see them in the NEUS. -40 C at 500 in the CONUS does not happen too often, and I think the limit at 500 for temps is around -50 C (coldest I have seen in NAMR is -51 C). There is some physical atmospheric reason why it can't get colder than this I recall, but I forget the reason why.

I was torn between this song and "Working On It" by Chris Rea!

Yes, talk to him in the third person! CoastalWx gets what CoastalWx likes, ALL HAIL WINTER!!!!

Hold!!!!

"We can do this?" 11 days and he is hopeful? LOL

Quite an impressive stretch you have to admit since Jan 27 w/ widespread lows in the single numbers in New England w/ many cold spots below zero. ORE has been as low as -18 F and OWD -16 F. And this going to continue right trough Fri, a break Sat, then Sun-Tue again. CoastalWx *should* like this cold b/c it preserves his "white gold." LOL.

I can hear CoastalWx from here, "why can't the mean trough position be just 150 mi to the W!!!" But maybe PT action from the NORLUN the 00z ECMWF is explicitly showing, which is pretty amazing it is showing it so far out. Given the 500 low lagging the sfc low so much, this scenario is not unreasonable. And we may have a great line of TSW+ when the strong cold front moves through initially.

That would be close to record low 500 heights for the NEUS. I attached the 500 from Jan 21, 1985. Just below 480 dm at 500 over CAR, which I think is the record. But no weenie snowstorm for a 6 year old CoastalWx (no 4-8" in the backlash ). Also, there is a KU case from the 1960s where you had 400 m + height falls in 12 hr in the NYC area. 498 dm 500 low right over NYC!

An atypical thing about this storm, it deeply occludes rather far S for a coastal storm (~35N) and has multiple low centers strung out SW to NE, so you will have a huge swath of heavy precip NW of the center, pivoting slowly. How much this pivot is obviously is key (pivotal!?). It can be one of those things, once you are in it, you are in it for awhile, yet not to far NW, just internment flakes in a dry stiff wind. So very sharp snowfall gradients as possible. Among the best snowfall gradient storm for eastern MA occurred 2/9/1987. I got 2" in Woburn MA w/ no real wind, and CHH had 23.4" w/ frequent gusts 60-70 kt. Second Cape Cod-only blizzard in two weeks! A 7-year old CoastalWx was NOT happy! But I was not either, even though 1986-87 was a good winter (only one from 1984-85 to 1991-92), it could have been *much* better!

More like PARADISE CITY! Take me home!

WE WEENIE!!!

catwrestle.mpg

"if it doesn't make 24" where I live...BUST!" LOL.

See what is developing and moving in right now? Wild turkey surprise????

At 150 hr, the GFS gets the 1000-500 thickness of 516 dm just into NE FL and the -5 C at 850 to MIA. That's Jan 1977 caliber stuff (snowed in MIA).

Go to bed. Enough for one day! LOL.