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Dalfy

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  1. A really satisfying trace fell, that's all I needed to enjoy my late spring walk haha. Looks great on the flowers and trees. Temp is 34.
  2. All snow in STL, 4 hours ahead of schedule with the changeover lol. Temp is 35.
  3. Or fill in around south central illinois. Reminds me of the classic DC snow hole
  4. STL had a pretty intense band set up about an hr ago - ~25-30dbz. We're back down to light snow. Our AFD mentions up to an inch in our metro associated with the area of lift. [on an unrelated note: I'm really trying to expand my knowledge of some of these terms they use in the AFD - frontogenesis, isentropic lift. I'm not in any math heavy fields, and I looked through the weather 101 forum without much avail to find a conceptually-focused guides that could help me interpret better. If anyone has any good, beginner-friendly sources I'm all ears and open hands]
  5. Very nice discussion by STL crew regarding the final days of the arctic air mass: .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 426 AM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 Deterministic guidance is now in good agreement for Thursday. Where in past runs there were a range of solutions, some producing another significant snow storm for the area, the latest GFS and ECMWF both keep the entire area dry on Thursday as the trough aloft continues to dig into the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in low level cyclogenesis along the coast. The Mid Mississippi Valley is too far back into the cold/dry Arctic air on Thursday. Even the GEFS >0.01 QPF probability map has only 10-20% over our far southern counties, and the more likely chances down across the Bootheel. I did leave some token slight chance PoPs in for parts of the area on Thursday to cover those very low chances in the ensemble, but if the trend continues we`ll be able to pull those by this afternoon. The remainder of the forecast will be characterized by a warming trend into the weekend and early next week as the upper level pattern shifts. The persistent eddy in the northern stream that`s been hanging over the CONUS and keeping us locked in such a cold surface pattern over the past week will finally fill in and move east. This pattern shift will finally shut the door to the Arctic which had been left standing open since February 6th and temperatures will begin warming back toward normal. The snow pack will slow our moderation down somewhat, and it`s unlikely highs will get above freezing until at least Saturday. However, by Monday it could be a balmy mid to upper 40s across the area. Carney
  6. ^LOL, I can imagine after what you guys have been through.
  7. 6-7'' reports in STL city, our local office was spot on. Really enjoyed this storm!
  8. Chicago is gone... lmao: https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/field/?cam=fieldmuseum
  9. So incredible outside. It hasn't been since, maybe 2016 that I've had the chance to walk through rates as intense as this. Visibility still very low here-maybe a few blocks worth, with a very fine-grain +SN [wind is hard to gauge since I'm deep in the city]. Temp is 3 degrees. Not sure how much we've accumulated since it's all drifted around.
  10. Glass from STL, really interesting disco: Light snow with pockets of moderate snow cover the majority of the CWA early this morning. This snow is occurring in response to a broad region of mid level frontogenetic forcing and weak isentropic upglide, with a little added help from a weak vort max moving across MO at this time. Light snow wavering in intensity is expected to persist through mid-morning and could briefly end in some areas. The ongoing winter storm will really get going after around 15z with the greatest overall intensity centered on this afternoon. Guidance is all in good agreement showing a classical evolution per conceptual models as the upper trof currently over the southern Plains ejects northeastward and becomes negatively tilted, leading to a deepening surface low tracking from the north- central GOM through the TN Valley. Strong large scale forcing associated with the upper trof, stout mid-level frontogenetic forcing associated with a cyclonically turning branch of the warm conveyor belt, and coupled ULJs will lead to robust ascent across southeast and east central MO into west central IL. This strong ascent within a deep dendritic growth zone will result in high snowfall rates and heavy snow during the aforementioned time frame. The HREF, HRRR, and RAP all are showing snowfall rates at times of 1+ in/hr. I`m in new territory estimating the SLRs as never in my 30+ years forecasting have I dealt with a major storm with this cold of an airmass. I am using 20:1 or greater and they increase with time. This results in additional snowfall from 600 am today through midnight of 5-9 inches within the winter storm warning area, the highest amounts along an axis from near Fredericktown to Salem IL. This corridor is good agreement with well established techniques from climatologies by Goree & Younkin, Browne & Younkin, and Gosselin using the track of the 850 mb low center. The model consensus of this 850 mb low track is from central AR skirting the bootheel to just north of Louisville. Gusty winds with the tightening pressure gradient and the light fluffy nature of the snow will bring concerns for blowing and drifting. To top this off we remain in the throes of bitterly cold air and dangerous wind chills. Travel is not recommended. If you become stranded it could result in a life-threatening situation. Outside of the warning area, a solid 2-5 inch snowfall looks in order. The current winter storm warning and advisory look on target. The storm system should completely exit and area by 06-09z with bitterly cold air and dangerous wind chills continuing into Tuesday morning. A few record lows may be possible Tuesday morning and the record low maxes today will again be shattered. The wind chill warning and advisory in effect until noon Tuesday looks good as well. Tuesday is still looking like a down day with weak surface high pressure dominating. Very cold temperatures will continue. There could be some flurries around in the morning due to lingering stratus. Glass
  11. Webcam just south of Austin, TX [1:33AM CST]. Incredible:
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