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About Greg

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    Wilmington, MA

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  1. I wouldn't say many of course, but if you go back in the record books for the last 60 years or so, this is not unheard of for mid October.
  2. Update: Previous forecast matching up with current expectations so no wholesale changes with this. Watching some rotating convective elements on KOKX radar but as these features move north into the cool sector lose their rotational features. Any severe storms will hinge on how far north warm sector can track. SPC mesoanalysis shows 0-3km CAPE remaining south of Long Island and this seems reasonable with offshore buoys in the warm sector with winds veering more to the SSE and dew pts well into the 60s. Mesoanalysis indicates secondary low bombing out near Sandy Hook NJ with pressure down to about 986 mb. However a meso low appears to be forming farther to the southeast well offshore. This meso low may pinch off warm sector and preclude better instability from advecting north. This would lower the probability of severe storms here overnight but can`t discount the risk given mesoscale processes in play here and associated low predictability. Thus will continue to monitor low top convection as it comes onshore into CT/RI and southeast MA overnight.
  3. Nantucket, now that's a place you want to be to see this.
  4. This situation sort of reminds me about in the winter when storms do hit us but because of the super dry airmass or positioning/strength of the high pressure, the snow just has a hell of a time reaching the ground or at about half of it gets eaten up overall. I hope this isn't a harbinger of things to come.
  5. Not sure what you mean but even the Euro had some decent rain in here also. The Euro was never really that dry.
  6. Slightly AN and not for long. I predict October will come in slightly below normal for the temperature when the month is done. But I'm always ready admit that that prediction can still go wrong.Now let me enjoy my light rain/sprinkles.
  7. Radar seems to be starting to fill in now in Eastern Mass all the way to the Northshore. Trekking inland nicely. I will be very curious about what the final amounts will be. Just trying to figure out which model has the best handle on this at this time.
  8. I've been on here for years but I'm well aware of what you mean.
  9. Why? The bigger stuff for us comes in tonight into tomorrow Just like many coastal storms do..
  10. Nah, there would be a rain snow line developing on the far South Shore and would end up tampering expectations just like they do in the true winter months.
  11. Best chance for a secondary/Tertiary landfall will only be the very southeast outer banks of North Carolina with the updated track and intensity as of now.
  12. The waters are in the mid to upper 80's there but the upper flow pattern, shear, and upwelling of cooler water beneath do to Dorian's slow movement, turning and digging, of those waters will stop it from getting back to it's big time strength and organization.
  13. I thin your family will be OK. Certainly nothing like what happened to the Bahamas today will occur to them that's for sure..
  14. I wouldn't trust the GFS or any computer model with this monster 2-3 days out. Errors of 70 miles every 24 hours out can make a huge difference 2-3 Days out. So any secondary landfalls other than the Bahamas is speculative at best until any true model consensus is agreed upon.