The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[winterwarlock]

4:15 snow now beginning to stick to cars and coldest part of sidewalk

[sussexcountyobs]

3 minutes ago, Noteaster101 said:

About freaking time, the air got saturated enough here, we got some snow flurry activity here in Pearl River, New York in Rockland County

That's amazing. I'm not too far away as the crow flies in NE Sussex county. It has been snowing lightly since 5:30 am. Hasn't amounted to much. But hasn't stopped.

[IYC77]

Compare that to the latest nam. Is the nam east or west of that ? Or right on target?

East

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[wthrmn654]

Winds gusting to 33 already out on east end. 

38.7 mph at montauk lighthouse

[[email protected]]

4 hours ago, EW9616 said:

For sensible weather impacts to the public if areas get 8-12” vs 15-20” it won’t matter to most, it will have similar impact, especially with most of this falling at night. I’m on north shore of Nassau on Long Island and schools are already cancelled for tomorrow. Would be the case if 8” or 18” fall. The high or low busts will determine if Tuesday school is cancelled. Will be a nice storm for most. Would just enjoy.


.

 

[Prue11]

31.1 just need heavier precip and it’s on

[Wxbear25]

Cars, grass starting to see accumulations in Bay Shore, snowing between light and moderate right now I’d say

[Freezing Drizzle]

The 32 F isotherm line has rapidly plunged well south into southern New Jersey.

[wthrmn654]

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

Strengthening E-NE winds today into tonight could produce a
surge of 2.5-3.5 ft, producing widespread moderate to locally
major coastal flooding along the back bays of western Suffolk
and srn Nassau, Peconic Bay, and western Long Island Sound, and
widespread minor to locally moderate flooding in NY Harbor and
Jamaica Bay, the lower Hudson River, and ern Long Island Sound.
The main high tide cycle of concern is Sunday night. Areas of
dune erosion are likely, with localized overwashes possible
along the ocean beachfront Sunday night into Monday morning.

Additional coastal flooding will likely linger into the
Monday afternoon high tide cycle, with a strong northerly flow
limiting impacts somewhat to minor/locally moderate categories.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...

[Prue11]

31.1 light snow central Suffolk 

[WestBabylonWeather]

31 degrees. Moderate snow. Sticking. 

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

2/22 18z RGEM for trends fwiw

 

Snowman19's model choice of course. Let's see how this verifies

[Mail Man]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Snowman19's model choice of course. Let's see how this verifies

I think he's going to bust

[jm1220]

Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

No. LOL!

Yep. The sun definitely cost twoteen to eleventeen inches today. 

[Juturna]

33 light snow, south-western Suffolk. No stickage to sidewalks or street yet.

[steve392]

Winds have really picked up out of the north.  Snow intensity doubled in last 30 minutes. Everything coating over. 

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Yep. The sun definitely cost twoteen to eleventeen inches today. 

Maybe even twelveteen? Then there's moon angle tonight. It's not looking good.

[WeatherFox]

posted again if no one put it up earlier:

.DISCUSSION...

-- Changed Discussion --3:32 PM  February 22, 2026

.KEY MESSAGE 1... A potential historic blizzard will impact the Tri-State area into Monday. This is a dangerous situation with conditions deteriorating quickly this evening into tonight. A potent upper level shortwave can be seen digging down towards the southeast coast on latest water vapor satellite imagery. Out ahead of it, surface cyclogenesis is underway and right on track off the Mid-Atlantic coast as seen in latest surface obs and even on visible satellite. While little wobbles in track/qpf trends were seen in some 12z guidance, there is still excellent agreement on this low rapidly intensifying to an impressive ~970mb central pressure before passing somewhere near the 40N/70W benchmark Monday morning. While the latest 12z GFS is now lower with QPF and more in line with the Canadian and ECMWF, these global models are struggling with banding. Current forecast QPF and Snow Amounts remained similar to previous forecast which is more in line with hi res/HREF guidance. Snow amount was derived using similar snow ratios to the previous forecast. Much of the guidance including the NBM appears to be too high. This was manually adjusted down to 10:1 or even a bit lower today, then increasing to 12-14:1 by late tonight into daybreak Monday as colder air wraps around the system. Using these ratios with generally 1.25 to 1.50 inches of QPF across the interior and 1.75 to 2.00 inches along the coast resulted in a swath of about 20 to 24 inches of snow for NYC and Long Island and 16 to 20 inches elsewhere. While this is the expected amount, a few isolated readings of 30 inches are possible in the heaviest banding, mainly along the coast. As for winds, the forecast remained the same for much of the area. Out east, for eastern LI and southern New London, confidence increased enough to bump up a few knots. There will likely be a brief period here where a 65-70kt LLJ at 950mb will aid in isolated 70 mph gusts at the surface. As a general timeline for how this will play out: Light snow will continue over the next few hours with little impact, especially because of marginal surface temperatures. However, conditions rapidly deteriorate this evening into tonight, with heavy snow and 1/4 mile visibility expected by around 7pm. Through the night, winds will continue to increase as heavy snow bands work through the area. White out conditions are expected during this time resulting in traveling becoming dangerous, if not impossible. Given latest hi res/HREF guidance and model time heights of impressive lift in the DGZ, snowfall rates in the heaviest bands will likely be 2 inches per hour for the coast and 1-2 inches per hours inland. Brief rates of 3 inches in one hour is not out of the question. Conditions start to gradually improve Monday afternoon although winds remain gusty. Even if we do dry out a bit earlier than forecast, blowing snow could be an issue into Monday afternoon. Have continued to keep mention of thunder out of the forecast but it can not be completely ruled out along the coast late tonight into early Monday morning. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Strengthening E-NE winds today into tonight could produce a surge of 2.5-3.5 ft, producing widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding along the back bays of western Suffolk and srn Nassau, Peconic Bay, and western Long Island Sound, and widespread minor to locally moderate flooding in NY Harbor and Jamaica Bay, the lower Hudson River, and ern Long Island Sound. The main high tide cycle of concern is Sunday night. Areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized overwashes possible along the ocean beachfront Sunday night into Monday morning. Additional coastal flooding will likely linger into the Monday afternoon high tide cycle, with a strong northerly flow limiting impacts somewhat to minor/locally moderate categories. .KEY MESSAGE 3... As a clipper low passes to the north on Wednesday, an associated warm front should bring some light snow and rain on Wed. Accumulations should be on the light side, ranging from less than an inch across Long Island, to around an inch in NYC and along the CT coastline, to 1-2 inches north/west of there. A stronger low moving from the OH valley to the lower Great Lakes on Thu could bring more wintry precip. NBM thermal profiles were mainly supportive of snow and/or rain, while blend of 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF thermal profiles shows temps warming aloft and are more in favor of light snow changing to a wintry mix inland, and rain in the NYC metro area and along the coast. Any snow/ice amts should be light, no more than an inch or two of snow most places and a light glaze of ice inland NW of NYC. Either way advisories could be needed for parts of the interior north/west of I-287 in NJ/NY and along the I-84 corridor in CT. High temperatures Tuesday range from the upper 20s to lower 30s, then trend closer to normal the rest of the week. This will allow for gradual snow melt each day, and with mostly sub-freezing temperatures at night into early morning, subsequent re-freeze of snow melt.

-- End Changed Discussion --

 

 

[SI Mailman]

sticking to all surfaces here

[WeatherGeek2025]

Thundersnow possibilities tonight 

[jdj5211]

32 on the nose in Montville,NJ (24 miles NW of Manhattan). Been misty snow all day. Very light snow now, starting to accumulate on grass and car tops. No pavement yet. Hoping to get in some nice bands and hit 20-24in here!


.

[Parterre]

Nothing sticking in Washington Heights.

[SACRUS]

 

20z hrr through 9:00 AM - a little moremore to go after this

 

 

[TJW014]

1" on cold surfaces. beginning to stick on sidewalks and roadways. Visibility down to 1/2 mile. Mdt to hvy snow.

[Tatamy]

Moderate snow - Visibility 1/2 mile.  32/31

[KrummWx]

Manhattan 16:30 - Sticking to cars and rooftops, 54th @ Broadway. Rates seem to be picking up, snow coming down is starting to blow around from my view on the 24th floor

[Jt17]

 
20z hrr through 9:00 AM - a little moremore to go after this
 

 

I might sound like a broken record, but this is also going to start missing hours of accumulations as we keep looking at these models, so please for the love god people don't freak out


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[Nibor]

[A_Status]

Starting to accumulate on car tops and trees more steadily in Flatbush, Brooklyn.  Moderate snow falling.  Down to 33F at my station. 

[WeatherFox]

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --3:32 February 22, 2026

**HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM INTO MONDAY** Conditions continue deteriorating this evening with snow overspreading the terminals from south to north. The snow intensity ramps up after 00z with blizzard conditions expected with 1/4SM visibilities and strong wind gusts. The snow intensity should start weakening on Monday with snow ending from west to east Monday afternoon. LIFR/VLIFR overnight and Monday morning. Improvements to MVFR likely Monday afternoon. Areas of blowing snow likely tonight into Monday. NE winds increase through this evening, becoming 15-20kt with gusts 25-30 kt after sunset, then quickly ramping up to 25-35 kt with gusts 35-45 kt overnight into Monday morning. The strongest winds will occur for NYC metro terminals, Long Island and southern CT terminals. Gusts 50-55 kt possible at KJFK, KLGA, KISP, KBDR and KGON late tonight into Monday morning. LLWS also expected tonight and early Monday morning with wind speeds at 2kft 50-60 kt.

Total Forecast Snow Amounts

KJFK/KLGA/KEWR: 18-22 inches KISP: 20-24 inches