Juturna Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 33 light snow, south-western Suffolk. No stickage to sidewalks or street yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Winds have really picked up out of the north. Snow intensity doubled in last 30 minutes. Everything coating over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Yep. The sun definitely cost twoteen to eleventeen inches today. Maybe even twelveteen? Then there's moon angle tonight. It's not looking good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 posted again if no one put it up earlier: .DISCUSSION... -- Changed Discussion --3:32 PM February 22, 2026 .KEY MESSAGE 1... A potential historic blizzard will impact the Tri-State area into Monday. This is a dangerous situation with conditions deteriorating quickly this evening into tonight. A potent upper level shortwave can be seen digging down towards the southeast coast on latest water vapor satellite imagery. Out ahead of it, surface cyclogenesis is underway and right on track off the Mid-Atlantic coast as seen in latest surface obs and even on visible satellite. While little wobbles in track/qpf trends were seen in some 12z guidance, there is still excellent agreement on this low rapidly intensifying to an impressive ~970mb central pressure before passing somewhere near the 40N/70W benchmark Monday morning. While the latest 12z GFS is now lower with QPF and more in line with the Canadian and ECMWF, these global models are struggling with banding. Current forecast QPF and Snow Amounts remained similar to previous forecast which is more in line with hi res/HREF guidance. Snow amount was derived using similar snow ratios to the previous forecast. Much of the guidance including the NBM appears to be too high. This was manually adjusted down to 10:1 or even a bit lower today, then increasing to 12-14:1 by late tonight into daybreak Monday as colder air wraps around the system. Using these ratios with generally 1.25 to 1.50 inches of QPF across the interior and 1.75 to 2.00 inches along the coast resulted in a swath of about 20 to 24 inches of snow for NYC and Long Island and 16 to 20 inches elsewhere. While this is the expected amount, a few isolated readings of 30 inches are possible in the heaviest banding, mainly along the coast. As for winds, the forecast remained the same for much of the area. Out east, for eastern LI and southern New London, confidence increased enough to bump up a few knots. There will likely be a brief period here where a 65-70kt LLJ at 950mb will aid in isolated 70 mph gusts at the surface. As a general timeline for how this will play out: Light snow will continue over the next few hours with little impact, especially because of marginal surface temperatures. However, conditions rapidly deteriorate this evening into tonight, with heavy snow and 1/4 mile visibility expected by around 7pm. Through the night, winds will continue to increase as heavy snow bands work through the area. White out conditions are expected during this time resulting in traveling becoming dangerous, if not impossible. Given latest hi res/HREF guidance and model time heights of impressive lift in the DGZ, snowfall rates in the heaviest bands will likely be 2 inches per hour for the coast and 1-2 inches per hours inland. Brief rates of 3 inches in one hour is not out of the question. Conditions start to gradually improve Monday afternoon although winds remain gusty. Even if we do dry out a bit earlier than forecast, blowing snow could be an issue into Monday afternoon. Have continued to keep mention of thunder out of the forecast but it can not be completely ruled out along the coast late tonight into early Monday morning. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Strengthening E-NE winds today into tonight could produce a surge of 2.5-3.5 ft, producing widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding along the back bays of western Suffolk and srn Nassau, Peconic Bay, and western Long Island Sound, and widespread minor to locally moderate flooding in NY Harbor and Jamaica Bay, the lower Hudson River, and ern Long Island Sound. The main high tide cycle of concern is Sunday night. Areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized overwashes possible along the ocean beachfront Sunday night into Monday morning. Additional coastal flooding will likely linger into the Monday afternoon high tide cycle, with a strong northerly flow limiting impacts somewhat to minor/locally moderate categories. .KEY MESSAGE 3... As a clipper low passes to the north on Wednesday, an associated warm front should bring some light snow and rain on Wed. Accumulations should be on the light side, ranging from less than an inch across Long Island, to around an inch in NYC and along the CT coastline, to 1-2 inches north/west of there. A stronger low moving from the OH valley to the lower Great Lakes on Thu could bring more wintry precip. NBM thermal profiles were mainly supportive of snow and/or rain, while blend of 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF thermal profiles shows temps warming aloft and are more in favor of light snow changing to a wintry mix inland, and rain in the NYC metro area and along the coast. Any snow/ice amts should be light, no more than an inch or two of snow most places and a light glaze of ice inland NW of NYC. Either way advisories could be needed for parts of the interior north/west of I-287 in NJ/NY and along the I-84 corridor in CT. High temperatures Tuesday range from the upper 20s to lower 30s, then trend closer to normal the rest of the week. This will allow for gradual snow melt each day, and with mostly sub-freezing temperatures at night into early morning, subsequent re-freeze of snow melt. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 sticking to all surfaces here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Thundersnow possibilities tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 32 on the nose in Montville,NJ (24 miles NW of Manhattan). Been misty snow all day. Very light snow now, starting to accumulate on grass and car tops. No pavement yet. Hoping to get in some nice bands and hit 20-24in here!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parterre Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Nothing sticking in Washington Heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 20z hrr through 9:00 AM - a little moremore to go after this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1" on cold surfaces. beginning to stick on sidewalks and roadways. Visibility down to 1/2 mile. Mdt to hvy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Moderate snow - Visibility 1/2 mile. 32/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KrummWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Manhattan 16:30 - Sticking to cars and rooftops, 54th @ Broadway. Rates seem to be picking up, snow coming down is starting to blow around from my view on the 24th floor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 20z hrr through 9:00 AM - a little moremore to go after this I might sound like a broken record, but this is also going to start missing hours of accumulations as we keep looking at these models, so please for the love god people don't freak out . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_Status Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Starting to accumulate on car tops and trees more steadily in Flatbush, Brooklyn. Moderate snow falling. Down to 33F at my station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --3:32 February 22, 2026 **HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM INTO MONDAY** Conditions continue deteriorating this evening with snow overspreading the terminals from south to north. The snow intensity ramps up after 00z with blizzard conditions expected with 1/4SM visibilities and strong wind gusts. The snow intensity should start weakening on Monday with snow ending from west to east Monday afternoon. LIFR/VLIFR overnight and Monday morning. Improvements to MVFR likely Monday afternoon. Areas of blowing snow likely tonight into Monday. NE winds increase through this evening, becoming 15-20kt with gusts 25-30 kt after sunset, then quickly ramping up to 25-35 kt with gusts 35-45 kt overnight into Monday morning. The strongest winds will occur for NYC metro terminals, Long Island and southern CT terminals. Gusts 50-55 kt possible at KJFK, KLGA, KISP, KBDR and KGON late tonight into Monday morning. LLWS also expected tonight and early Monday morning with wind speeds at 2kft 50-60 kt. Total Forecast Snow Amounts KJFK/KLGA/KEWR: 18-22 inches KISP: 20-24 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22 Author Share Posted February 22 If I let someone start an obs thread, can we handle posting in the correct threads? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Snow finally sticking to all surfaces, wind really picking up. Blizzard of '26 officially underway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Pavement is starting to get coated here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 32 with mod snow and winds picking up. Roads covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said: Snow finally sticking to all surfaces, wind really picking up. Blizzard of '26 officially underway 18Z Surface Analysis 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Pavement is starting to get coated here in Brooklyn Enjoy this tony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NsWx516 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 North shore Nassau, down to 31 and snow is sticking to the pavement now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: If I let someone start an obs thread, can we handle posting in the correct threads? not a chance 3 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 25 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Winds gusting to 33 already out on east end. 38.7 mph at montauk lighthouse Interested to see what peak winds are out there. Pretty much the best place to get the best gusting. Keep us posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22 Author Share Posted February 22 Just now, Nibor said: not a chance Forky really wants one lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Special Weather Statement National Weather Service New York NY 436 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-230100- Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk- Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens- Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 436 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ***Moderate to Heavy Snow Early This Evening*** Bands of moderate to heavy snow will move across the area through 8pm. Snowfall rates will increase to one half to one inch per hour in the heaviest snow. Conditions will begin deteriorating, especially after sunset, as temperatures continue falling below freezing. This will allow the snow to accumulate on all surfaces. Travel is not recommended as roads will become snow covered and hazardous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NsWx516 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, Rjay said: Forky really wants one lol Has Forky’s forecasted amounts changed at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, Rjay said: Forky really wants one lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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