SACRUS

Another marvelous day today https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

52 last night after a high of 80 yesterday. On the way to mid/upper 70s. Mon (9/27) and Tue (9/28) look like the warmest for potentially (the year) with highs 80/ low 80s in the warmer spots. Not to say it wont warm up which it looks likely by Oct 6, but dont think we exceed Mon/Tue maxes till spring. Front come sthrough Tue later so clouds could spoil the warmest readings on Tuesday. ECM / GFS cutt ULL ville 9/29 and on but keep the brunt of the rain north of the area. Cooler shot by Thu (9/30) - Sun (10/3) as ULL pulls down N/NNW flow. Once we clear the ULL towards the first full week of Oct, ridging looks to rebuild into the east and warm things up. GFS would have California style weather (overall) the next 10 days but I suspect we see clouds and rain chances with the ULL and stalled up pattern evolve.

9/25 EWR: 79 New Brnswck: 78 BLM: 77 LGA: 77 ACY: 77 JFK: 76 TTN: 76 ISP: 76 TEB: 76 PHL: 76 NYC: 75

Down to 50 and now up to 68 and bright sunshine. This will make three very nice weekends in a row. GFS would have a 4 peat and ECM not so much next weekend. ECM is cut off ULL city from mid week 9/30 on the GFS keeps the ULL into northeast. SO will be a matter of progression to see much rain/clouds cool we can get in the 10/2 - 10/5 period. Sam looks just a bit outside the coast. beyond that heights look to rise towards the second week of Oct. 12 hours of daylight today as we descend into the dregs of the longer days. Just a great next fews days at least in tap 70s / 50s and lots of sun.

HPN: 78 SWF: 79

9/23 TEB: 86 LGA: 83 EWR: 82 New Brnswck: 81 JFK: 81 ISP: 81 ACY: 81 TTN: 81 PHL: 81 BLM: 80 NYC: 79

Dewpoint to 70 on strong SSE wind and some clearing ahead of the heavy rains later this moring/afternoon. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

Humid and front coming through today and into tomorrow making way for a third spectacular weekend and into early next week. Next cold front comes through next week Wed 9/29. By later next week eyes on what will be Hurricane Sam and the western Atlantic ridge building back and backing and bogging flow/traffic. So we will likely see a progession 9/23-24 front rain 9/25 - 9/27: dry and splendid (mainy mid - upper 70s) 9/28 - 9/30 : front / bit cooler 10/1 - beyond: onshore / humid warm flow as Western Atl Ridge builds back west. (what will likely be) Sam : around the southeast coast 9/30- 10/5(ish)

9/22 (highs) 9/22 PHL: 84 New Brnswck: 84 EWR: 83 LGA: 83 TTN: 83 TEB: 82 ACY: 81 BLM: 80 JFK: 80 ISP: 80 NYC: 79

Easterly flow https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

9/19 EWR: 80 PHL: 80 JFK: 79 ACY: 79 New Brnswck: 79 LGA: 78 TTN: 77 TEB: 77 BLM: 76 ISP: 76 NYC: 76

Sunset before 7PM today at 6:58 PM

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

Shaping to be a splendid Sunday and making two great weekends back to back and longer ranger guidance hints a trifecta next weekend. Before then more of the same tomorrow (Mon) 9/20. By Tue a trough is digginng into the GL and a with a ULL cutting off by Wed (9/22) pushing a southerly flow along the EC. Clouds and humid with rain and potentially a soaking Wed late into and through Thu (9/23) wit >1.5 - 3 inches of rain widespread before the ULL pushes north and aloows the front to push through Fri (9/24). Should setup a fantastic first weekend of fall. Beyond there as we end Sep and open Oct it looks like ridging is likely to build back by Tue (9/28) and warmer overall returns.

9/18 EWR: 88 PHL: 87 LGA: 86 JFK: 86 TEB: 86 New Brnswck: 86 TTN: 85 BLM: 85 ACY: 85 ISP: 84 NYC: 84

looks like we warm back up after any transitory cooldown in the Sep 23 - 25 period. We'll see if the guidance continues to show warmer for and by the final week of Sep. (9/227th

Sat 9/18 looks like the next shot at 90 for EWR, next week could feature too much onshore flow.

Onshore flow / low spinning east of Carolina https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

MMU: 87 HPN: 84 SWF: 84

9/15 EWR: 91 BLM: 89 PHL: 89 New Brnswck: 88 TEB: 88 LGA: 88 TTN: 87 NYC: 85 ACY: 85 JFK: 81 ISP: 81

9/15 EWR: 91 BLM: 89 PHL: 89 New Brnswck: 88 TEB: 88 LGA: 88 TTN: 87 NYC: 85 ACY: 85 JFK: 81 ISP: 81

9/14 PHL: 88 TTN: 84 ACY: 82 New Brnswck: 82 EWR: 81 LGA: 81 TEB: 81 NYC: 80 BLM: 79 ISP: 78 JFK: 78

The puppy days of late summer as we ride above normal overall into the longer range. After today's cooldown Wed (9/15) looks to reach 90 , especially in the warmer spots in what will end a 2 + weeks period without 90s. Beyond there - warm and we watch cut off lows from the ridge producing onshore and keeping it warm but next shot at 90s would likely come Sat or Sun (pending on clouds and easterly flow). Nicholas remnants look aimed at GL/OV but at some point those storms and precip comes east. ULL in the Atlantic nearby the coast as well. So we have to see how much of the period 9/18 - 9/22 is clouds and onshore and potentially showery, rainy.

9/13 ACY: 88 EWR: 88 PHL: 88 BLM: 87 JFK: 87 New Brnswck: 86 LGA: 86 ISP: 85 TTN: 85 ISP: 84 NYC: 83

Smoke looks most prevalent into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic currently https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif