SACRUS

Creeping back GFS weighted im sure Day 4-5

39 / 26 as the much prolonged snow pack continues to shrink with melting now accelerated. Tomorrow's rains may due much of the s/c nj and NE places in. Not much sun the next 4-5 days and the snowpack can be replaced quickly Sun pm and into and through Monday with the storm. 2/23 - beyond looks to ride near / below normal and remain wetter.

Re-weight models: Euro / UKMET → pattern control, blocking, timing GFS / CMC → sensitivity to phasing and coastal capture Ensembles → probability space and risk envelope AI models → early signal detection, persistence recognition This is why a west-leaning GFS + west-leaning GEFS can be taken seriously even if the Euro “scores better” overall. Bottom line Yes, the Euro is statistically the best model overall But that ranking is dominated by 500 mb and synoptic skill Northeast snowstorms depend on lower-level and mesoscale details that are not heavily weighted in those scores As a result, model rankings ≠ snowfall accuracy For East Coast storms, trend consistency and ensemble behavior often matter more than raw skill scores

Interesting summary on model scoring and performance from the all mighty AI: Why the Euro still “wins” — but can mislead The Euro: Excels at 500 mb pattern evolution Handles blocking better than most Is more conservative with amplification That means: It often looks right early It resists dramatic coastal solutions It avoids overreaction But in snowstorm setups: That same conservatism can equal early suppression It may be “right” synoptically but late on sensible weather It often makes small late corrections that have huge snowfall implications This is why many historic Northeast storms looked “meh” on the Euro at Day 4… until Day 2.

The AI (GFS / EUro) Total QPF

1/19 EURO AI AIFS Total QPf

UKMET a miss

2/19 00z Total QPF

GFS AI

2/19 00z Total QPF

2/19 00z GFS

RGEM did look much better tgan the NAM / ICOn and more in line with the 18z GFS

2/18 00z ICON Total QPF

2/19 00z ICON

Compares to the GFS at the same range its much flatter or slower.

Creeping back up

Records: Highs: EWR: 71 (2011) NYC: 68 (1981) LGA: 67 (2011) JFK: 67 (2011) Lows: EWR: -1 (1979) NYC: 0 (1979) LGA: 0 (1979) JFK: 2 (1979) Historical: 1899 - While much of the central and eastern U.S. was recovering from the most severe cold wave of modern history, the temperature at San Francisco soared to 80 degrees to establish a record for month of February. (David Ludlum) 1959 - Some of the higher elevations of California were in the midst of a five day storm which produced 189 inches of snow, a single storm record for North America. (13th-19th) (David Ludlum) 1959: Some of the higher elevations of California were in the midst of a five-day storm, which produced 189 inches of snow, a single storm record for North America. (13th-19th) (David Ludlum) (Bob Ryan's 2002 Almanac) 1960: On this date through the 20th, a huge snowstorm struck the northeast from Maryland to New England with up to 36 inches of snow through the 20th resulting in millions of dollars in damage. At least 26 people lost their lives. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1966: The temperature dropped to -49° at Winnipeg, Manitoba Canada, the city's all-time lowest recorded temperature. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1972: The "George Washington Day Snowstorm" occurred across the northeast. Blizzard conditions developed in Pennsylvania on the 19th forcing I-80 to close. Towanda, PA picked up 30 inches of snow. Winds up to 50 mph created snowdrifts up to 20 feet in some parts of north-central Pennsylvania. Thousands of motorists were stranded. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1976 The maximum temperature today was 76 °F in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1979: The temperature at New York plunged to -52 degrees below zero to establish a state record. The President's Day snowstorm- A small, but intense low pressure system "exploded" near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and moved slowly up the coast. Snow began to fall in the District during the afternoon of February 18th. On the morning of February 19th Washingtonians awoke to the biggest snowfall since the Knickerbockers snowstorm of 1922. National Airport received 18.7 inches of snow, while up to 26 inches of snow buried the eastern suburbs. With 6 inches of snow on the ground before the storm, the snow-covered in Washington area ranged from 24 to 30 inches on the ground. Forecasters believed the storm would move south of Washington and out to sea only grazing the area with a light snow of 1 to 3 inches. As snow piled up across the Washington area snow forecast were updated frequently to catch up with the rapid increase in accumulation. National Airport received 18.7 inches of snow and Dulles Airport received 16.3 inches of snow. . (p. 81-86 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss) (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) Ref. (NWS Ranking for Storms between 1956 and 2011) This is the 22nd Worst Snowstorm 1981: The maximum temperature today was 76 °F in Washington, DC. (Bob Ryan's 2002 Almanac) 1984: A major storm system dumped heavy snow in the Midwest with the heaviest amounts in Nebraska. 24 inches was recorded at Verdigre and 22 inches fell at Norfolk. 24-hour snowfall records were set at Norfolk and Grand Island. Winds up to 40 mph resulted in considerable blowing and drifting of the snow and many roads in northeastern Nebraska were made impassable. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - A small but intense low pressure system combined with northerly upslope winds to produce eight inches of snow in five hours at Meeteetsie WY, located southeast of Cody. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms soaked the Central Gulf Coast Region with heavy rain. Totals in southern Louisiana ranged up to 8.50 inches near the town of Ridge, with 6.55 inches at Plaguemine. Thunderstorms in northern Florida drenched Apalachicola with 5.41 inches of rain in 24 hours, and produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Mayo. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina brought freezing rain and heavy snow to Virginia and the Carolinas. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 18 inches at Franklin. Freezing rain reached a thickness of two inches around Charlotte NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - An intense but slow moving Pacific storm worked its way across Utah over a two day period. The storm blanketed the valleys with 4 to 12 inches of snow, and produced up to 42 inches of snow in the mountains. Heavy snow also fell across northern Arizona. Williams received 22 inches of snow, and 12 inches was reported along the south rim of the Grand Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992: A thunderstorm spawned a powerful F4 tornado for so far north for the time of the year in southern Van Wert County in Ohio. The tornado touched down just west of US Route 127 and traveled northeastward for about 3 miles. One house was completely leveled, and nine others experienced severe damage. Six people were injured. 2003: Feb. 14th-18th: A complex storm system produced copious amounts of snow and sleet across the region. Nicknamed the President’s Weekend Snowstorm of 2003, it ranked in the top 5 of all-time regional snowstorms. The storm took a heavy toll on residents, structures, transportation systems, emergency responders, businesses, livestock, and travelers. Roads were covered by deep snow and sleet and were nearly impassible. Emergency personnel and those needing emergency transport had to be taken to their destinations in 4 wheel drives or military vehicles (see article “Loudoun and Fauquier Counties’ Finest Assist the National Weather Service during Snowstorm”). Heavy accumulations weighed down on buildings and several structural collapses occurred. (Nat. Weather Service)

EWR: 43 / 34 (+3) NYC: 41 / 37 (+3)

42 today snowpack took a shellacking but still holding on. The next 3 days may do it in but there is hope to replenish it later sunday and into and through monday.

2/18 18z GFS qpf