SACRUS

Records: Highs: EWR: 69 (2017) NYC: 66 (1997) LGA: 66 (2017) JFK: 68 (2017) Lows: EWR: 1 (1936) NYC: 1 (1936) LGA: 9 (2015) JFK: 9 (2015) Historical: 1871: Professor Cleveland Abbe of the Signal Corps Service issued the first weather synopsis and forecasts along with warnings to mariners for the Great Lakes. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1884: Severe thunderstorms spawned sixty tornadoes in the southeastern United States, killing more than 420 persons and causing three million dollars damage. Georgia and the Carolinas hardest were hit in the tornado outbreak.(David Ludlum) (Ref. Wilson Wx. More Information) 1884 - Severe thunderstorms spawned sixty tornadoes in the southeastern U.S., killing more than 420 persons and causing three million dollars damage. Georgia and the Carolinas hardest were hit in the tornado outbreak. (David Ludlum) 1888 - A tornado struck Mount Vernon IL. The tornado killed sixteen persons along its 62 mile path. (David Ludlum) 1888: Severe thunderstorms over southern Illinois spawned a violent tornado in Jefferson County and devastated the southeast half of Mount Vernon. The tornado killed 24 people, injured 80 others, and destroyed or damaged 300 homes and 50 businesses. In addition, overturned wood stoves ignited many fires in the wreckage. The tornado currently stands as the 9th deadliest Illinois tornado on record and was one of the first disasters to which the American Red Cross responded. 1954 - High winds across the southern half of the Great Plains, gusting to 85 mph, caused the worst duststorms since the 1930s. Graders were needed in places to clear fence high dirt drifts. (The Weather Channel) 1972: A huge coastal storm hit the mid-Atlantic, northeast into southwestern Quebec, Canada. Interior sections were especially hard-hit by heavy snows, including totals of 23 inches at Williamsport, PA and McHenry, MD. 20 inches fell at Syracuse, NY. Snowdrifts piled up to 20 feet in northeast Pennsylvania. Storm surges up to 4.5 feet and winds gusting over 80 mph along coastal Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine resulted in extensive property damage and tremendous beach erosion. 27 houses were destroyed and 3,000 damaged in Massachusetts alone. Winds in southwestern Quebec gusted to 50 mph with snowfall totals up to 14.6 inches.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) Ref. (NWS Ranking for Storms between 1956 and 2011) This is the 21st Worst Snowstorm 1979: Wash. DC 3rd greatest snowstorm February 18-19, 18.7 inches snow The Presidents Day Storm" was considered the worst storm in 57 years to strike Northern Virginia. Snow depths from the storm ranged from 6 to 8 inches southwest and southeast, 8 to 14 inches in the piedmont from south-central Virginia through central Virginia (Richmond reported 11 inches), and up to 20 inches over Northern Virginia. At times, snow was falling 2 to 3 inches per hour and temperatures were in the single digits to teens. Huge tractors and other farm machinery had been driven to the Mall in Washington, DC to protest for higher agricultural pricing. When the storm hit, the farmers used their equipment to help locals dig out of nearly two feet. Four deaths were attributed to heart attacks from stress due to overexertion during and after the storm, and 18 injuries occurred from falls on ice. Temperatures across the state were very cold (single digits in the north) when the snow began making the storm similar to the February 1899 storm. Even Norfolk got 7 inches before changing to rain and recorded nearly 13 inches of snow for the month. (Ref. Virginia Weather History) (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) Ref. (NWS Ranking for Storms between 1956 and 2011) This is the 22nd Worst Snowstorm 1987 - A winter storm over the southern and central Rockies produced 28 inches of snow at Echo Lake CO, and two feet of snow at Gascon NM and Los Alamos NM. Mora County NM was declared a disaster area following the storm. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Showers and thunderstorms in the southeastern U.S. drenched Valdosta GA with more than five inches of rain, and the 24 hour rainfall total of 7.10 inches at Apalachicola FL more than doubled their previous 24 hour record for February. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - An upper level weather disturbance brought heavy snow to parts of Nebraska, with six inches reported at Loup City and Surprise. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - A moist Pacific storm worked its way into New Mexico and southern Colorado. Up to 36 inches of snow blanketed the Wolf Creek and Red Mountain passes of southwest Colorado, and up to 15 inches of snow was reported around Trinidad. In New Mexico, the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains were blanketed with 9 to 28 inches of snow, and 50 to 60 mph wind gusts were reported from Taos to Albuquerque. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1993: Intense snows caused by a "norlun" instability trough hit parts of Massachusetts. Chatham, MA picked up 20 inches of snow. For 3 hours, the snow fell at a rate of 4 inches per hour. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1997: Unseasonably warm air occurred across much of the East. Some record highs for the date included: 64° at New York City, 63° at Newark, NJ and 56° at Bridgeport, CT. The Midwest also had mild weather, with highs in the 30s and 40s. Rapid snow melt and ice jams caused by the warm weather pushed some rivers out of their banks in Iowa, causing minor lowland flooding of farmland. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2004: A bombogenesis Nor'easter struck Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island, Canada producing strong winds and snow depths as high as 3.3 feet. Blowing and drifting snow with winds gusting as high as 62 mph halted all transportation including snowplows, cut power, and closed schools and businesses. Nova Scotia issued their first "Code Black" emergency measure in history. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2011 - Strong winds reaching as high as 40 mph with gusts to 53 mph topple the 48 year old National Christmas tree. The 42 foot tall Colorado blue spruce sat just south of the White House on the Ellipse. It was transplanted there from York, Pennsylvania in 1978. The Weather Doctor

Euro AI AIFS

looks similar to 12z same time - havent looked at 500 to compare

Just this past weekend there were runs showing as much as 6-8 and even 10 inches as recent as 72/60 hours ahead of Sunday/Monday

18z GFS AI AIGFS Total QPF The gfs core platform has either - been hacked by members of the weather community - its seeing s something no other suite sees for such an amplified phase so close to the coast (other then yesterdays GGEM, UKMET) that other dont see ala 2010 - greatest failure inside 96 hours of recent memory And the much to be hyped on social media and other outlets 18z GFS total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

UKMET

GGEM:

GFS

GFS AI AIGFS Total QPF:

2/10 12z Summary Total QPF: ICON:

Creeping back GFS weighted im sure Day 4-5

39 / 26 as the much prolonged snow pack continues to shrink with melting now accelerated. Tomorrow's rains may due much of the s/c nj and NE places in. Not much sun the next 4-5 days and the snowpack can be replaced quickly Sun pm and into and through Monday with the storm. 2/23 - beyond looks to ride near / below normal and remain wetter.

Re-weight models: Euro / UKMET → pattern control, blocking, timing GFS / CMC → sensitivity to phasing and coastal capture Ensembles → probability space and risk envelope AI models → early signal detection, persistence recognition This is why a west-leaning GFS + west-leaning GEFS can be taken seriously even if the Euro “scores better” overall. Bottom line Yes, the Euro is statistically the best model overall But that ranking is dominated by 500 mb and synoptic skill Northeast snowstorms depend on lower-level and mesoscale details that are not heavily weighted in those scores As a result, model rankings ≠ snowfall accuracy For East Coast storms, trend consistency and ensemble behavior often matter more than raw skill scores

Interesting summary on model scoring and performance from the all mighty AI: Why the Euro still “wins” — but can mislead The Euro: Excels at 500 mb pattern evolution Handles blocking better than most Is more conservative with amplification That means: It often looks right early It resists dramatic coastal solutions It avoids overreaction But in snowstorm setups: That same conservatism can equal early suppression It may be “right” synoptically but late on sensible weather It often makes small late corrections that have huge snowfall implications This is why many historic Northeast storms looked “meh” on the Euro at Day 4… until Day 2.

The AI (GFS / EUro) Total QPF

1/19 EURO AI AIFS Total QPf

UKMET a miss

2/19 00z Total QPF

GFS AI

2/19 00z Total QPF

2/19 00z GFS

RGEM did look much better tgan the NAM / ICOn and more in line with the 18z GFS

2/18 00z ICON Total QPF

2/19 00z ICON

Compares to the GFS at the same range its much flatter or slower.