SACRUS

RGEM next up

Snow/ sleet through 84

From my review the NBM General weighting philosophy Time RangeHeavier Weight 0–24hHRRR, RAP, obs 24–48hNAM, HRRR, HREF 48–72hNAM + globals 3–5 daysEuro, CMC, ensembles 5–7 daysEnsembles dominate It’s NOAA/NWS’s official blended forecast system, designed to combine many models, ensembles, and observations into a single, statistically optimized forecast for sensible weather (temps, precip, wind, snow, etc.). What goes into the NBM (Inputs)? Global Models ECMWF (Euro) GFS CMC (GGEM) UKMET ICON (limited elements) Ensembles EPS GEFS GEPS HREF (short range) Regional / Mesoscale HRRR NAM / NAM-Nest RAP RGEM Observations & Post-Processing Surface observations Climatology MOS-style bias correction Downscaling to fine grids (~2.5 km)

EPS mean 850 MB

EPS lp mean

Sunsets after 5:00 for the first time since Nov 1st today. We;ve gained 32 mins of total daylight from the solstice Sunrise slowly earlier at 7:14AM / Sunset : 5:02 PM

Records: Highs: EWR: 62 (1954) NYC: 61 (1959) LGA: 57 (1973) JFK: 55 (1973) Lows: EWR: -1 (1984) NYC: 0 (1888) LGA: 5 (2005) JFK: 6 (2005) Historical: 1781: Great coastal storm sweeps New York/New England coasts. Several men-of-war sunk, causing problems for the British war effort. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1893: The minimum temperature for the date is +1°F. in Washington, D.C. (Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1904: An unusual estimated F4 tornado leveled the northern part of Moundville, Alabama, just after midnight, killing 37 people. The tornado reportedly had a phosphorescent glow. An engineer on a northbound Great Southern train saw the destruction right after it occurred and backed his train 12 miles in reverse to the town of Akron, where he sent a telegram for help. 1927: The maximum temperature for the date in Washington, DC is 76°F. (Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1930: Illinois recorded its coldest temperature ever at Mt. Carroll (-35F). The reading would be tied during the winter of 1995-96, when the temperature plummeted to -35F at Elizabeth, IL. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1936: One of the coldest windchill the Twin Cities has ever seen was -67 on this day with the new windchill formula (-87 with the old formula). The temperature was -34 with a wind speed of 20mph. All traffic in the Twin Cities was severely hampered and a number offatalities were caused by the cold. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1937: Low of 9 degrees above zero in Las Vegas froze many pipes. Schools had trouble keeping warm, and coal was in short supply in the city. January 1937 was the coldest month on record for Las Vegas, with an average temperature of 31.2 degrees, 17.5 degrees below normal. 1940: Four days of lake effect snow squalls came to an end at Watertown, NY where 69 inches fell. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1943 - Chinook winds during the early morning hours caused the temperature at Spearfish SD to rise from 4 below zero to 45 above in just two minutes, the most dramatic temperature rise in world weather records. An hour and a half later the mercury plunged from 54 above to 4 below zero in twenty-seven minutes. (David Ludlum) 1948: On this date through the 26th, the longest period of snowfall on record occurred in downtown Denver, CO at 92 hours and 3 minutes as 13.6 inches fell. At the former Stapleton Airport, 19 inches of snow fell making it the heaviest snow in January. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1961: Coventry, CT had a minimum temperature of -32 °F today and the record for CT is -37 °F on 2-16-1943 (Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States)(Extreme Weather p. 54, by Christopher C. Burt) 1982: Minneapolis had two great snow storms in succession: 17.1 inches of snow fell on the 20th and 19.9 inches on the 22nd and 23rd; these produce new 24 hours single storm records. Also 38 inches of snow depth on the ground and 44 inches total depth for the month, set all-time records. (David Ludlum, p.9) Boulder, CO recorded a wind gust to an incredible 150 mph! (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) Very cold maximum 29° Minimum was -2° at Bren Mar Weather Station near west Alexandria, VA (Annandale Weather Records) 1984: Arctic high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic brought extreme cold. All-Time record lows were tied or set at: Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: -18°, Baltimore, MD: -7°-Tied (2/9/1924 & 2/10/1899), Islip, NY: -7°-Tied and Bridgeport, CT: -7°-Tied. Locations that reported January record lows included: Concord, NH: -33°, Wilmington, DE: -14°-Tied and Philadelphia, PA: -7°-Tied. Locations that reported daily record lows included: Caribou, ME: -27°, Elkins, WV: -23°, Charleston, WV: -10°, Harrisburg, PA: -9°, Roanoke, VA: 2°,Wallops Island, VA: 9 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1985: The Virginia Minimum Temperature Record was -30°F at Mt. Lake Biology Station near Blacksburg, VA(Ref.Extreme Weather p. 54, by Christopher C. Burt) Jan 20-22, An arctic cold front swept across the state ushering in extreme cold and high winds. Wind chill temperatures plunged well below zero. Winds knocked out power compounding the effects of the cold. Pipes froze and burst. Fresh snow of 4 inches with the front helped temperatures across the entire state fall below zero. New records were set at several locations in the south including Roanoke with -11°F and Norfolk with -3°F. Cable television lines were damaged by shrinkage caused by the extreme cold. Click this link to see a Map of the lowest minimum temperatures for each state. On January 22, Mountain Lake recorded the coldest temperature ever in Virginia ( -30 °F). (Ref. Virginia Wx. History) (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1987 - A winter storm spread snow from central Mississippi through northern Georgia to New England. Up to 15 inches of snow fell across the heavily populated areas of Virginia, Maryland and Delaware. Traffic tie-ups nearly paralyzed the Washington D.C. area. Winds gusted to 76 mph at Chatham MA, and in Pennsylvania, snowfall totals ranged up to 21 inches at Dushore. Williamsport PA received five inches of snow in just one hour. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - The nation was free of winter storms for a day, however, winds in southern California gusted to 80 mph in the Grapevine area of the Tehachapi Mountains, and winds along the eastern slopes of the Rockies reached 100 mph in the Upper Yellowstone Valley of Montana. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Low pressure brought heavy rain and gale force winds to Florida. Daytona Beach was drenched with 5.48 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a January record for that location, and winds at Titusville FL gusted to 63 mph. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - It was a very tame and peaceful mid winter day. Mild weather prevailed across the nation, with rain and snow primarily confined to the northeastern U.S. and the Pacific Northwest. Warm weather continued in Florida. Highs of 83 degrees at Hollywood and 85 degrees at Miami were records for the date. (National Weather Summary) 1994: Arctic outbreak continues as DC records a record 4 consecutive days with lows below 10° January 18-21 (2 °F, -4 °F, 8 °F, 3 °F) (Bob Ryan's 2000 Almanac) 1997: A major snowstorm hit northern California, dumping snow at the rate of two inches per hour on the Sierra Mountains. A six foot snowdrift trapped Amtrak's California Zephyr in Donner Pass, much like a similar storm had done in January 1952. Fortunately, the AMTRAK train was freed after just a few hours, not three days like the 1952 event. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1999: Amazingly only 5 hurt when an 880-yd-wide F3 tornado caused severe damage to a 5 block area of downtown Clarksville, TN. (The FEMA Director noted, " It’s like someone dropped a bomb on it. "). $72 million damage to commercial/residential structures by 4:15 a.m. storm. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2000 - A severe ice storm hit northern Georgia and portions of northwest South Carolina on January 22-23. Over half a million utility customers were without power during and after the storm, with the Atlanta area severely affected. 2005 - A major winter snowstorm, referred to as the Blizzard of 2005, affected the Northeastern United States. More than one foot of snow covered much of southern New England in the storm's aftermath, with well over two feet in some areas of Massachusetts. Strong winds created blizzard conditions with low visibilities and considerable blowing and drifting of snow. (NCDC) 2014: The third snowest winter on record in Chicago to date. (Januaru 22, 2014) (Ref.Frank Wachowski, NWS Archivesand WGN-TV Chicago, IL) 2016: January 21-23. A historic storm dumped heavy snow from the Ohio Valley to New England, including two feet or more from West Virginia to New York City, crippling transportation. The storm was blamed for 58 deaths and economic costs exceeding $1 billion. This was the most severe snowstorm to affect the Northeast since 1996 based on snowfall amounts and area covered. The last GFS Model run before the storm had 59.5 inches of snow in the forecast some of the highest number I have seen in forecast models. Also the Canadian model and the RGEM models showed tremendous snowfalls of the East Coast before the storm. The snow started at 1005 hours at Glen Allen as extremely small flakes but with in one hour the yard was getting white. At 1800 with 5.7 inches of snow at Glen Allen the snow started to change over into sleet which would continue for 9.5 hours. The last GFS Model run before the storm (Ref.NWS)

39 / 22 - did get to 41 at some point overnight. Wamrest day of the next 9 or through the 31st. Overall cold and a few much below avg days 1/24-1/25 and again 1/28-1/30. The much discussed 1/25 - 1/26 storm which is looking like a floor of 6 and ceiling of 12 -14 for the area pending on mixing. Euro swapped coastals in the 1/31 - 2/2 range. Some moderation into the 2/3 and beyond.

NAM at 84 FWIW:

GEFS low mean

06 GEFS: Snow (10:1)

Total QPF is 1.1 and total snow at 10:1 (with sleet) is 7.7 - NYC

Conistent now with 1 - 1.25 QPF s

06Z GFS QPF: Snow 10:1

06z Total QPF (snow 10:1 /mix p type) GFS: 1.1 (11.1) GFS AI AIGFS: 0.9 (10) Euro: 1.1 (7.7 / SN/Sleet Frzr) Euro AI AIFS: 1.2 (11.4 / sleet) GEFS (mean: 1.2 (12.8)

drier than the others around here

Updated

Euro total QPF storm

25-40% sleet