SACRUS

Font forget 2003

Updated

2/22 00z GGEM Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24 10:1 Snow

2/22 00z GFS AI AIGFS Total QPF 2/22 -2/23-2/24 10:1 Snow

2/22 00z GFS Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-2/24 10:1 Snow

2/22 00z WRF Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24 10:1 Snow

2/22 00z RGEM Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24 10:1 Snow

Updated ICON

2/22 00z ICON Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24 10:1 Snow

2/22 00z NAM 3k Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24 S10:1 Snow

Updated NAM

2/22 00z NAM Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24 10:1 Snow

Snowside Heights and Snow Pleasant crushed in NJ

sref were a good precursor the nam would remain robust

What it is: The National Blend of Models (NBM) is NOAA/NWS’s statistically post-processed blend that combines dozens of deterministic and ensemble models into a single, calibrated forecast grid used operationally across the U.S. Models included: Core inputs typically include GFS, GEFS, ECMWF (Euro), ECMWF ensembles, NAM (12 km & 3 km), HRRR, RAP, CMC/GEM, UKMET, and select regional ensembles (availability varies by cycle and variable). Weighting approach: Dynamic, variable-specific weighting is applied—models are weighted differently by forecast hour, parameter (QPF, snow, wind, temp), season, region, and recent skill, rather than a fixed average. Post-processing & bias correction: Raw model output is statistically bias-corrected, smoothed, and calibrated using historical verification, climatology, and consistency checks to reduce noise, outliers, and known model biases. Operational output: Produces probabilistic and deterministic fields (means, percentiles, PoPs, snowfall ranges) and serves as the baseline guidance for NWS forecast grids, with human forecasters adjusting for mesoscale and event-specific factors.

2/22 00z Summary Total QPF NYC / Total 10:1 Snow SREF mean: 2.2 / 21 NAM: 2.8 / 27.5 NAM 3k: 2.0 / 19.5 ICON: 1.4 / 13.5 RGEM: 1.3 / 13.3 GFS: 1.6 / 16.7 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.6 GGEM: 1.5 / 13.8 GEFS: 1.7 / 17 UKMET: 1.2 / 11 EURO AI AIFS: 1.3 / 12.7 EURO: 1.4 / 12.8

2/21 21z SREF Total QPF mean 2/22-2/23-24 Snow 10:1

SREF: 2.1 / 19.6 NAM: 2.8 / 27.6 NAM 3K: 2.2 / 21.6 ICON: 1.3 / 12.9 RGEM: 1.1 / 11 GFS: 1.7 / 17.1 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.3 / 12.7 UKMET: 1.7 . 15.2 GEFS Mean : 1.8 / 18.2 Euro: 1.3 / 11.1 Euro AI AIFS: 1.2 / 11.4 Mean Total QPF (NYC): 1.68 inches Mean 10:1 Snowfall (NYC): 16.2 inches

2/21 18z EURO AI AIFS: Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24 Snow 10:1

I am unable to post it and pivotal doesnt offer it on the non subscription free page. NYC was general 12 - 15

Updated with GEFS mean(s)

2/21 18z GEFS Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24 Mean Snow 10:1 mean

Updated UKMET

2/21 18z UKMET Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24 Snow 1:1