SACRUS

RRFS (planned to replace the nam/hrr r

just right click the image and copy url link paste into your browser https://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

All just tools for trends not exact qpf or snow totals as the storm is in progeess - go with the actual obs

SREF -

Just need it to stick everywhere

From our artificial summary with inputs: HRRR — primary mesoscale driver Best for: Snow band location Snowfall rates (1–3"/hr) Band evolution / pivoting Useful range: 0–12 h (up to ~18 h trend) How to use: latest 1–3 runs only ⚠️ Do not trust storm-total maps HREF — confidence & persistence Best for: Probability a band persists ≥1"/hr rate probabilities Confidence in HRRR signal Useful range: 0–36 h How to use: confirms whether HRRR is real or noisy RAP — temperatures & p-type Best for: Surface temps Rain/snow/sleet/ZR line CAD holding vs breaking Useful range: 0–12 h How to use: hourly temp & wet-bulb trends ❌ Not for QPF or totals NAM 3 km — vertical structure Best for: Warm nose depth Sleet vs freezing rain Soundings & cross-sections Useful range: 6–36 h How to use: diagnose why p-type is changing ⚠️ QPF often too wet

RAP fairly good with temps vs actuals 2:00 / 19z

34 / 34 grass slowly whitening real accumulations by 4:00-5:00 for here then hopeful 1.2-1.5 LE for 10-18 here.

Snow mixing in here now 35/34 so far about 0.10 in the bucket ahead of the change over probably cut through another 0.05 or 0.10 before starting to accumulate.

2PM on the HRR

Tool Band locationRadar → HRRR Snow rates: HRRR Band confidence: HREF Temps / p-typeObs → RAP → NAM 3k CAD statusObs + RAP

Miller s Maybe this is a C but i was leaning B

down as low as 28 into nyc mainly hovering 29ish

UKMET Snow

yup case in point if the gfs was off with this band by 25 - 30 miles - major implications - the storm will do what its gonan and wants to do - no model especially global will hone in in this range with the banding which are paramount in these coastals

would rely more on hrrr/rap / nam 3k and rrfs and radar later with the deform band - GFS keeps the heaviest s and east of NYC

Last WPC update QPF for this storm

The RRFS which is set to replace NAM/ HRRR beefed up / its snow alogrithm is odd QPF Snow ratio undetermined

Thats through 3am more to come , maybe half way or more