SACRUS

We will push 80 in the warmer spots Sat, if enough sun on Sunday (10/3) it will be low 80s (EWR record is 85). More clouds and Mon (10/4) as upper low pushes west and hung up flow overall. Should see more persistent onshore to more humid S/SE flow by the middle/end of next week Thu (10/7) - Sat (10/9). Beyond there ridge builds into the east and warmer mid month. Not sure we see more 80s in the period 10/10 - 10/20 in the warm spots but chances may be increasing.

Down to 51 last night. Much less clouds than i was expecting. Cooler train 36 more hours before we warm up this weekend. We will push 80 in the warmer spots Sat, if enough sun on Sunday (10/3) it will be low 80s (EWR record is 85). More clouds and Mon (10/4) as upper low pushes west and hung up flow overall. Should see more persistent onshore to more humid S/SE flow by the middle/end of next week Thu (10/7) - Sat (10/9). Beyond there ridge builds into the east and warmer mid month. Not sure we see more 80s in the period 10/10 - 10/20 in the warm spots but chances may be increasing.

You can see the ULL closing off and heading south and by the looks of it, tomorrow looks mostly cloudy vs some more optimistic forecasts, https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

Down to 50 last night, looks cooler through Saturday (10/2) before warming up Sun (10/3) and Mon (10/4) could see last surge of near 80 degree warmth sneak in depending on clouds. Cut off / ULL into next week before more ridging towards next weekend (10/8).

Made it to 72 briefly as the sun poked out for about 25 mins closer to 1:30/2:00. Cloudy again now , down to 68.

EWR now to 70 so early clouds didnt prevent the max of atleast 70's streak

Clouds ahead of schedule may throw wrench in the 70 degree high stretch? http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

Down to 57 last night rain and showers into EPA as front is moving through. Clear and dry out later tonight setting up a step down cooler pattern starting Wed (9/29) and through the coming weekend Sun (10/3). We have a quick warmup Monday (10/4) and Tuesday (10/5) very outside chance of 80s. Beyond that more onshore NE flow the middle of next week. Beyond there ECM has ridging into the east and warmer than normal as round out the end of the first full week of Oct into mid month.

Close call on of all days July 3 with ahigh of 70. Streak looks to break Thursday. I'll go 68 for a high

9/27 EWR: 83 LGA: 82 PHL: 82 BLM: 80 JF: 80 New Brnswck: 80 ACY: 80 TEB: 79 TTN: 79 NYC: 78 ISP: 76

Another marvelous day today https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

52 last night after a high of 80 yesterday. On the way to mid/upper 70s. Mon (9/27) and Tue (9/28) look like the warmest for potentially (the year) with highs 80/ low 80s in the warmer spots. Not to say it wont warm up which it looks likely by Oct 6, but dont think we exceed Mon/Tue maxes till spring. Front come sthrough Tue later so clouds could spoil the warmest readings on Tuesday. ECM / GFS cutt ULL ville 9/29 and on but keep the brunt of the rain north of the area. Cooler shot by Thu (9/30) - Sun (10/3) as ULL pulls down N/NNW flow. Once we clear the ULL towards the first full week of Oct, ridging looks to rebuild into the east and warm things up. GFS would have California style weather (overall) the next 10 days but I suspect we see clouds and rain chances with the ULL and stalled up pattern evolve.

9/25 EWR: 79 New Brnswck: 78 BLM: 77 LGA: 77 ACY: 77 JFK: 76 TTN: 76 ISP: 76 TEB: 76 PHL: 76 NYC: 75

Down to 50 and now up to 68 and bright sunshine. This will make three very nice weekends in a row. GFS would have a 4 peat and ECM not so much next weekend. ECM is cut off ULL city from mid week 9/30 on the GFS keeps the ULL into northeast. SO will be a matter of progression to see much rain/clouds cool we can get in the 10/2 - 10/5 period. Sam looks just a bit outside the coast. beyond that heights look to rise towards the second week of Oct. 12 hours of daylight today as we descend into the dregs of the longer days. Just a great next fews days at least in tap 70s / 50s and lots of sun.

HPN: 78 SWF: 79

9/23 TEB: 86 LGA: 83 EWR: 82 New Brnswck: 81 JFK: 81 ISP: 81 ACY: 81 TTN: 81 PHL: 81 BLM: 80 NYC: 79

Dewpoint to 70 on strong SSE wind and some clearing ahead of the heavy rains later this moring/afternoon. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

Humid and front coming through today and into tomorrow making way for a third spectacular weekend and into early next week. Next cold front comes through next week Wed 9/29. By later next week eyes on what will be Hurricane Sam and the western Atlantic ridge building back and backing and bogging flow/traffic. So we will likely see a progession 9/23-24 front rain 9/25 - 9/27: dry and splendid (mainy mid - upper 70s) 9/28 - 9/30 : front / bit cooler 10/1 - beyond: onshore / humid warm flow as Western Atl Ridge builds back west. (what will likely be) Sam : around the southeast coast 9/30- 10/5(ish)

9/22 (highs) 9/22 PHL: 84 New Brnswck: 84 EWR: 83 LGA: 83 TTN: 83 TEB: 82 ACY: 81 BLM: 80 JFK: 80 ISP: 80 NYC: 79

Easterly flow https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

9/19 EWR: 80 PHL: 80 JFK: 79 ACY: 79 New Brnswck: 79 LGA: 78 TTN: 77 TEB: 77 BLM: 76 ISP: 76 NYC: 76

Sunset before 7PM today at 6:58 PM

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

Shaping to be a splendid Sunday and making two great weekends back to back and longer ranger guidance hints a trifecta next weekend. Before then more of the same tomorrow (Mon) 9/20. By Tue a trough is digginng into the GL and a with a ULL cutting off by Wed (9/22) pushing a southerly flow along the EC. Clouds and humid with rain and potentially a soaking Wed late into and through Thu (9/23) wit >1.5 - 3 inches of rain widespread before the ULL pushes north and aloows the front to push through Fri (9/24). Should setup a fantastic first weekend of fall. Beyond there as we end Sep and open Oct it looks like ridging is likely to build back by Tue (9/28) and warmer overall returns.

9/18 EWR: 88 PHL: 87 LGA: 86 JFK: 86 TEB: 86 New Brnswck: 86 TTN: 85 BLM: 85 ACY: 85 ISP: 84 NYC: 84