SACRUS

Had AI summarize an update based off the latest August readings. : ENSO 2026 The latest August readings show Niño 3.4 near +1.9°C, Niño 3 near +2.8°C, Niño 1+2 over +3.0°C, and Niño 4 still warm in the PSL dataset. MEI.v2 is also very strong at +2.54, while RONI is up to +1.67. The key point is that this is not just a weak or central-Pacific event right now. The current structure still looks very east-Pacific to east-central-Pacific, with some basinwide support depending on which Niño 4 dataset is used. Parameter Latest 2026 Reading Period What It Shows Niño 3.4 +1.89°C PSL / +1.8°C CPC Aug 2026 Strong; near very strong threshold Niño 3 +2.83°C PSL / +2.5°C CPC Aug 2026 Very strong east-central warming Niño 1+2 +3.28°C PSL / +3.4°C CPC Aug 2026 Extreme far-eastern Pacific warmth Niño 4 +1.29°C PSL / +0.1°C CPC Aug 2026 Dataset-dependent; PSL basinwide warm, CPC relative index lower RONI +1.67 Aug 2026 Strong relative Niño 3.4 signal ONI +1.80 Latest available Strong 3-month oceanic El Niño MEI.v2 +2.54 Aug 2026 Very strong coupled ocean-atmosphere signal SOI -4.00 Latest available July value Very strong atmospheric El Niño response OLR -1.00 Aug 2026 Enhanced tropical convection Heat Content +2.75 Aug 2026 Strong subsurface warm support 200mb Zonal Winds -6.44 Aug 2026 Strong upper-level easterly anomaly Looking at the August SST structure, 1997 still comes out as the best overall match because of the very strong east-Pacific signal. August 2026 is actually warmer than August 1997 in Niño 3.4, but 1997 remains a strong match in Niño 3 and Niño 1+2. 2015 is the best basinwide/intensity analog, especially with the warmer Niño 4 support. 2023 remains a useful recent analog for the eastern-Pacific SST shape, but it was much weaker on the coupled-atmosphere side at the same point. Rank Analog Year Aug Niño 3.4 Aug Niño 3 Aug Niño 1+2 Aug Niño 4 Match to Aug 2026 Baseline 2026 +1.89 +2.83 +3.28 +1.29 Current 1 1997 +1.40 +2.60 +3.64 +0.67 Closest east-Pacific structure; very strong Niño 3 / 1+2 match 2 2015 +1.49 +1.87 +1.73 +1.04 Best basinwide/central support match; weaker eastern zones than 2026 3 2023 +1.20 +1.88 +2.54 +0.90 Good recent east-Pacific analog, but weaker Niño 3.4 and coupling 4 1982 +0.44 +0.83 +0.89 +0.13 Poor August SST match, but major-event trajectory later 5 1972 +0.73 +1.60 +2.00 +0.06 Good east-Pacific analog, much weaker Niño 3.4 / Niño 4 6 1965 +0.68 +0.96 N/A N/A Useful historical analog, but weaker August intensity 7 1957 +0.81 +1.20 N/A N/A Strong older event, but weaker than 2026 in August 8 1991 +0.73 +0.63 +0.18 +0.56 Warm/coupled event, but far weaker east-Pacific structure 9 2002 +0.67 +0.40 +0.12 +0.65 More central/basinwide, not close to the east-Pacific warmth 10 2009 +0.61 +0.72 +0.75 +0.64 Developing El Niño, much weaker than 2026 The coupling side is also impressive. MEI.v2 for August 2026 is +2.54, which is higher than August 1997, 2015, and 1982. That is a major reason this event should not be dismissed as just ocean warmth without atmospheric support. SOI was also extremely negative in July, though the August SOI value was not available in the same dataset at the time of comparison. On the coupled ocean-atmosphere side, 1997 and 2015 remain the strongest matches, with 1982 still important as a major-event trajectory analog. Rank Analog Year MEI.v2 Aug RONI JJA / Latest Coupling Match Baseline 2026 +2.54 +1.67 latest Current 1 1997 +2.27 +1.8 Very close; strongest full coupling analog 2 2015 +1.95 +1.5 Very strong, but weaker than 2026 3 1982 +1.91 +1.1 Strong; event exploded later 4 1972 N/A +1.4 Strong RONI trajectory; pre-MEI.v2 5 1991 +0.37 +0.8 Weaker coupling at same time 6 1994 +0.88 +0.6 Moderate coupling, less similar 7 2002 +1.01 +0.8 Moderate, weaker than 2026 8 2009 +0.56 +0.4 Much weaker 9 2023 +0.51 +0.8 Much weaker coupled signal at same point 10 1986 +0.97 +0.6 Slower-developing event Overall, I would rank the analog package as 1997–98 first, 2015–16 second, 2023–24 third for SST structure but lower for coupling, then 1982–83 and 1972–73. The biggest takeaway is that 2026 is already running warmer than many of the classic strong El Niño years at the August checkpoint, especially in Niño 3.4 and MEI. The event still does not look like a classic Modoki right now because Niño 1+2 and Niño 3 remain extremely warm. If anything, the current look is more east-Pacific / east-central-Pacific with some basinwide support. Overall Rank Analog Current Match Why 1 1997–98 Best overall Best blend of very strong eastern-Pacific warmth, rapid strengthening, strong MEI, and major-event trajectory 2 2015–16 Very high Strongest basinwide/intensity analog; Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 support are good matches 3 2023–24 High for SST shape, lower for coupling Good recent east-Pacific SST analog, but much weaker MEI/SOI coupling at same time 4 1982–83 High trajectory analog Not close in August SSTs, but strong historical major-event analog by fall/winter 5 1972–73 High secondary Classic east-Pacific El Niño, but weaker Niño 3.4 and Niño 4 in August 6 1965–66 Moderate-high Useful historical east-Pacific/SOI analog, weaker SST intensity 7 1957–58 Moderate-high Strong older event, but August 2026 is already warmer 8 1991–92 Moderate Warm-event analog, but much weaker east-Pacific structure 9 2002–03 Moderate More central/basinwide and weaker eastern Pacific 10 2009–10 Lower-moderate El Niño winter analog, but weaker August development/coupling Bottom line: the latest August data keep 1997 as the best overall analog, 2015 as the best basinwide/intensity analog, and 1982 as a key major-event trajectory analog. 2023 is still useful for the east-Pacific SST pattern, but it is not nearly as good for coupling. Right now, this continues to look like a strong to potentially very strong east-Pacific / basinwide El Niño rather than a classic Modoki.

Last 50s (59°F or below) EWR: Jun 16 — 58°F NYC: Jun 16 — 57°F JFK: Jun 16 — 58°F LGA: Jun 2 — 55°F Last 40s (49°F or below) EWR: May 31 — 46°F NYC: May 23 — 49°F JFK: May 31 — 48°F LGA: May 12 — 48°F Last 30s (39°F or below) EWR: Apr 21 — 35°F NYC: Apr 21 — 34°F JFK: Apr 21 — 34°F LGA: Apr 21 — 37°F

Weekly :

Highs: EWR: 94 (2016) NYC: 93 (1931) LGA: 92 (2016) JFK: 89 (1995) Lows: EWR: 45 (1975) NYC: 45 (1975) LGA: 48 (1975) JFK: 48 (1975) Historical: 1824: A hurricane storm surge swept over the islands of the Georgia coast with a great loss of life, destruction of crops, and severe floods inland. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1912: Hurricane makes landfall just west of Mobile, Alabama. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1919: 357 people died as a hurricane made landfall near Corpus Christi, TX. A 16 foot storm surge inundated the low-lying areas, destroying almost all of the wooden buildings. Port Aransas was almost totally demolished. Damage totaled $20.3 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1928: A violent, estimated F4 tornado, with winds of 200 mph, tore across Rockford, Illinois. The tornado first touched down 8 miles south-southwest of Rockford and moved across the southeast part of the city. The tornado was on the ground for 25 miles with a width varying from 200 to 500 feet. A total of 14 people were killed, with around 100 injuries reported in Rockford alone. Two hundred buildings were damaged or destroyed. 1937 - The mercury soared to 92 degrees at Seattle, WA, a record for September. (The Weather Channel) 1944 - A very destructive hurricane swept across Cape Hatteras and Chesapeake Bay, side swiped New Jersey and Long Island, and crossed southeastern Massachusetts. The hurricane killed more than four hundred persons, mainly at sea. The hurricane destroyed the Atlantic City NJ boardwalk. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1960: Hurricane Ethel developed rapidly in the central Gulf of Mexico early on this date, intensified and moved northward with winds estimated as high as 130 mph near the center late on this date. Ethel went from a tropical storm to briefly a Category 5 within 18 hours. Ethel decreased in intensity rapidly before reaching the coast near the Alabama- Mississippi border on the 15th as a minimal hurricane. Hurricane force winds were reported in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, including Venice which reported sustained winds of 90 mph and gusts of up to 105 mph. Rainfall totals ranged from 2 to 10 inches. Damage was estimated at $1 million dollars and no fatalities were reported. Despite attaining Category 5 intensity, Ethel name was not retired. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1970 - The temperature at Fremont, OR, dipped to 2 above zero to equal the state record for September set on the 24th in 1926. (The Weather Channel) 1971: A strong ridge was in place across the west giving very high temperature included: Palm Springs, CA: 114°, Phoenix, AZ: 109°, Victorville, CA: 108°, Fresno, CA: 105°, Stockton, CA: 104°, Sacramento, CA: 103°, San Francisco (Airport), CA: 103°, Santa Ana, CA: 100°, Bishop, CA: 100°, Downtown Los Angeles, CA: 97°, Winslow, AZ: 95 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1977: Severe thunderstorms produced several tornadoes in eastern Arkansas, killing one. 1982: Beginning the previous day, heavy early season snow blanketed parts of the northern Rockies. Totals included Red Lodge, MT: 36 inches, Mystic Lake, MT: 30 inches, Nye, MT: 15 inches, Sheridan, WY: 7 inches, Billings, MT: 6 inches and Joliet/Columbus, MT: 4 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1984: A lightning bolt struck a soccer field in West Goshen Township, PA. 26 people were injured and 4 hospitalized, including players, coaches, officials, and spectators. One of the hospitalized died 5 days later. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1987 - Barrow, AK, received 5.1 inches of snow, a record for September. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather from Minnesota to Texas. Thunderstorms in Iowa produced baseball size hail at Laporte City, and 80 mph winds at Laurens. Hail caused more than ten million dollars damage to crops in Iowa. Thunderstorms in Missouri produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Missouri City and Kansas City. A thunderstorm in Texas deluged the town of Fairlie with two inches of rain in just two hours. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Hurricane Gilbert made the first of its two landfalls on Mexico, producing 170 mph winds at Cozumel. (The Weather Channel) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather over the Texas panhandle during the evening hours. One thunderstorm spawned a strong (F-2) tornado in the southwest part of Amarillo, and deluged the area with five inches of rain. The heavy rain left roads under as much as five feet of water, and left Lawrence Lake a mile out of its banks. Hurricane Gilbert lost some of its punch crossing the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Its maximum winds diminished to 120 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Unseasonably cool weather prevailed across the south central U.S. Eight cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Raton NM with a reading of 30 degrees. The afternoon high of 59 degrees at Topeka KS marked their third straight record cool maximum temperature. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle WA reported a record eight days in a row of 80 degree weather in September. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1992: A record early season snowstorm came to and end over the western Tanana Valley in central Alaska. 16.7 inches of snow fell at Fairbanks which set a new record for the greatest September snowstorm on record. Denali National Park was buried under 37.6 inches over the four day period and Eielson Air Force Base checked in with 23.5 inches. Along with the snow came record lows across parts of the state including: Barrow, AK: 13°, Delta Junction, AK: 23°, Nome, AK: 24°, Juneau, AK: 32°-Tied and Annette, AK: 38°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1993: Canadian high pressure behind a strong cold front brought record chill to parts of the central U.S. Some low temperatures included: Camp Crook, SD: 19°, Porcupine, SD: 19°, Rapid City, SD: 24°, Sheridan, WY: 24°, Colorado Springs, CO: 28°, Cheyenne, WY: 29°, Pierre, SD: 31°, Goodland, KS: 31°, Pueblo, CO: 31°, Denver, CO: 32 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1997: A powerful thunderstorm unleashed a destructive wind that wreaked havoc on a small section of Bullhead City, AZ. The fierce wind snapped 24 power poles and damaged approximately 80 houses and mobile homes. 22 of the homes were condemned. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1999: A powerful thunderstorm unleashed a destructive wind that wreaked havoc on a small section of Bullhead City, AZ. The largest peacetime evacuation in United States history was underway as 2.6 million residents of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas were fleeing in advance of monstrous Hurricane Floyd. By days end, the Category 4 hurricane was battering the northern Bahamas packing winds of 135 mph with a minimum central pressure of 934 millibars or 27.58 inches of mercury. 1999: Drought emergencies and restrictions were lifted in NJ, from Burlington to Ocean Counties and to the S, after increasing rain ended a growing season drought that caused 80 million dollars in agricultural damage. Two days later the unprecedented rains of tropical storm Floyd effectively ended the drought, as up to 14.5" of rain fell, or about 4 months worth of normal rainfall.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2005: Hurricane Ophelia caused some damage and beach erosion along the United States coastline from Florida to North Carolina. The closest approach occurred on September 14 and 15 with its western eyewall crossing land and the eye remaining just offshore in the Carolinas. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Charleston, South Carolina. 2008: Hurricane Ike became extratropical on this day. The St. Louis Metropolitan Area experienced hurricane conditions, with Ike's remnants inflicting severe damage to homes. Several areas in Illinois and Indiana, already flooded by the frontal boundary to the north, saw significant additional rainfall. Due to flooding in Chicago, a state of emergency was declared for Cook County due to flooding of the Des Plaines River. Hurricane-force wind gusts were reported to the east of the center across parts of Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania with significant wind damage including structural damage to buildings and trees. 2011: The remains of Hurricane Ike brought flooding rains/high winds/power losses to the St. Louis, MO, area. In Ladue, MO a woman died when lightning hit a tree and a large limb fell on her; in University City 2 people drowned while trying to move their cars to higher ground. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2017: Irma is among the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record based on wind speed. The major hurricane could notch more historic moments in the days ahead. Hurricane Irma is one of the most powerful hurricanes to roam the Atlantic Basin in more than a decade, and it could hit more historical benchmarks in the days ahead. Here's a rundown of Irma's notable extremes so far. Strongest Winds in Almost 12 Years Irma's maximum sustained winds have so far maxed out at 185 mph. Those winds are well above the 157 mph Category 5 threshold and are the highest registered in any Atlantic hurricane since 2005. Hurricane Wilma on Oct. 19, 2005, was the last hurricane to have maximum sustained winds reach 185 mph. Incredible #GOES16 imagery of Category 5 Hurricane #Irma with 185 mph max wind speeds. 10:36 PM - Sep 5, 2017 One of Four Hurricanes With 185+ MPH Winds The 185 mph winds also place Irma in the upper echelon of Atlantic hurricanes based on wind speed. Only three other hurricanes have had winds of 185 winds or greater, including Wilma (2005), Gilbert (1988) and Allen (1980), according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a tropical scientist at Colorado State University. Allen had the strongest winds of those four hurricanes, maxing out at 190 mph in early August 1980. Records that Irma set 2018: Hurricane Florence was a powerful and long-lived Cape Verde hurricane, as well as the wettest tropical cyclone on record in the Carolinas and the ninth-wettest tropical cyclone to affect the contiguous United States. The sixth named storm, third hurricane, and the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Florence originated from a strong tropical wave that emerged off the west coast of Africa on August 30, 2018. Steady organization resulted in the formation of a tropical depression on the next day near Cape Verde. Progressing along a steady west-northwest trajectory, the system acquired tropical storm strength on September 1, and fluctuated in strength for several days over open ocean. An unexpected bout of rapid intensification ensued on September 4– 5, culminating with Florence becoming a Category 4 major hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale with estimated maximum sustained winds of 130 mph - Florence A Write-Up For The Whole Storm

71 / 55 dewpoint temps dropping as trough moves through, ridge races in behind it later Tue pm and through Friday. Warmer inland / onshore eastern areas but still warmer in the period. Beyond there a bit back and forth to balance out overall near normal in the period 9/18 - 9/28. Next week could see the coolest readings since June or May between the 20-22, we'll see it it corrects and moderates warmer with more a northwen focus.

Quite the humid night (DT low 70s) but the drier air into the Lakes and heading southeat

Highs: Nice recovery from the morning rains / deluges New Brnswck: 85 BLM: 85 PHL: 85 TEB: 85 ACY: 84 EWR: 83 LGA: 82 TTN: 82 JFK: *80 ISP: 79 NYC: 79

IA next target / Mid west while we dry out a bit but still need to watch Fri - Sun for any cut off slowly moving through

all the way to 84 now : 84 / 71

Quite Steamy now 78 / 72

About the exact same here 1.17 glad to have missed the flooding.

Skies clearing out up to 75 / 70 here

Records: Highs: EWR: 94 (2005) NYC: 94 (1952) LGA: 93 (1952) JFK: 89 (1994) Lows: EWR: 49 (1985) NYC: 46 (1963) LGA: 50 (1985) JFK: 47 (1963) Historical: 1823: A strong category 1 or low category 2 hurricane struck near New Orleans, Louisiana and went toward Baton Rouge. Its strongest impacts occurred west of New Orleans. 1928 - Hurricane San Felipe crossed Puerto Rico resulting in the highest winds, the heaviest rains, and the greatest destruction in years. The hurricane produced much damage in the Virgin Islands, and later hit the Bahamas and Florida. (David Ludlum) 1934: The mercury soared to 92 degrees at Seattle, WA, a record for September. (The Weather Channel) 1944: Hampton Roads saw winds of 72 mph gusting to 90 mph. Richmond had 3.26 inches of rain on the 13th. Winds of 134 mph sustained with gusts to 150 mph lashed Cape Henry a wind record which remains standing today for the state.Virginia Beach saw the pressure fall to 28.80". Rainfall from the storm caused a flood of record at State Farm on the James river (26.4 feet).Damage totaled $2.5 million. Forty-six perished. This system was the first time that air force reconnaissance air craft were used to monitor a storm threatening the East Coast. Rec. Major east coast storm Sep. 13-15th 1944: The destroyer USS Warrington was sunk by the Great Atlantic Hurricane 300 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida. 247 men were lost in the tragedy. 1978: Little Rock, Arkansas saw 8.10 inches of rain which caused major flash flooding. Ten people were killed. 1984 - Hurricane Diana, after making a complete loop off the Carolina coast, made landfall and moved across eastern North Carolina. Diana deluged Cape Fear with more than eighteen inches of rain, and caused 78 million dollars damage in North Carolina. (Storm Data) 1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the northeastern U.S. Flooding was reported in Vermont, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Greenwood NY received 6.37 inches of rain. A dike along a creek at Prattsburg NY gave way and a two million dollar onion crop left on the ground to dry was washed away. The prolonged rains in the eastern U.S. finally came to an end late in the day as a cold front began to push the warm and humid airmass out to sea. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Hurricane Gilbert smashed into the Cayman Islands, and as it headed for the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico strenghtened into a monster hurricane, packing winds of 175 mph. The barometric pressure at the center of Gilbert reached 26.13 inches (888 mb), an all-time record for any hurricane in the Carribean, Gulf of Mexico, or the Atlantic Ocean. Gilbert covered much of the Gulf of Mexico, producing rain as far away as the Florida Keys. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Unseasonably cool weather prevailed over the Central Plains Region, with a record low of 29 degrees at North Platte NE. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the Pacific Northwest, with a record high of 96 degrees at Eugene OR. Thunderstorms over south Texas produced wind gusts to 69 mph at Del Rio, and two inches of rain in two hours. (National Weather Summary) 1993: A strong, winter-type storm moving through the Rockies and the western Plains produced record early season snowfall. Denver, Colorado recorded 5.4 inches of snow for its greatest snowstorm ever for so early in the season, after reaching 92 degrees the day before. The same record was also set at both Cheyenne, Wyoming and Scottsbluff, Nebraska with 5.5 and 2.5 inches of snow, respectively. Along with the snow came record lows including: Cheyenne, WY: 29°, Rapid City, SD: 29°-Tied, Colorado Springs, CO: 32°-Tied and Denver, CO: 33°. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1994: Microburst winds of 100 mph removed the roof above 8 classrooms of the Littleton Elementary School in Cashion, AZ; 8 children/1 teacher were injured. The same storm littered the ground with golf ball-size hail and knocked down a mile-long stretch of power poles. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1996: Hurricane Fausto moved across Baja on Friday night the 13th and continued moving north-northeastward, striking mainland Mexico early Saturday morning. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1998: Heavy rain of 5 to 12 inches fell over portions of extreme southeast Kansas. Unofficial reports of rainfall amounts as high as 14 inches was reported in Bourbon County, Kansas. The hardest hit areas were along the Marmaton River in Bourbon County including Ft. Scott. The highest estimated stage of the Marmaton River at Ft. Scott reached 50.05 feet on the 14th which is the second highest stage ever recorded. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1999: Hurricane Floyd on the verge of Category 5 status steamed steadily westward about 250 miles east of Miami. Forecasters warned that Floyd was much more dangerous than 1992's Hurricane Andrew due to its size. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2007: Hurricane Humberto made landfall just east of High Island, TX in the McFadden National Wildlife Refuge. Hurricane Humberto had maximum sustained winds near 90 mph and a minimum pressure of 985 millibars or 29.09 inches of mercury. Humberto made history due to its rapid intensification from a tropical depression the morning of September 12th, to a hurricane early on this date, as no other hurricane has ever strengthened so quickly close to landfall. Damage was estimated near $60 million dollars. Only five other storms in Atlantic Basin history has grown from a depression to a hurricane within 24 hours: Arlene & Flora in 1963, Blanche in 1969, Celia in 1970 (from depression to a Category 3) and Harvey in 1981. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2008: Hurricane Ike made landfall as a Category 2 storm near Galveston, Texas. 2008: Hurricane Ike made landfall around 0700z along the northern end of Galveston Island, TX as a strong Category 2 storms with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph and a minimum central pressure of 28.14 inches of mercury. Prior to landfall, Ike covered an extensive area of the Gulf of Mexico with the largest radii of hurricane-force winds: 125 miles out from the center and tropical-storm force winds: 275 miles out from the center, ever measured. Much of Galveston and nearby coastal towns were left in shambles, and storm-surge damage extended well east into Louisiana. Ike resulted in 103 deaths across Hispaniola, Cuba and parts of the United States Gulf Coast and total damage at $32 billion dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2014: The 3rd of the top 10 US weather events according to Weatherwise magazine was the Boulder Colorado flash flood of September 9th through the 16th. This deluge dumped more than 9 inches of precipitation in 24 hours and 14 inches in four days on Colorado foothills unleashing furious flooding on Boulder and the surrounding towns. It damaged and destroyed 1800 homes, and washed out hundreds of miles of road, and cost $2 billion. (Ref.Weatherwise May/June 2013 page 15) 2017: Irma started on August 30th and reached its peak on Sep. 6th and hit FLA. on Sunday night Sep. 10th, 2017. On September 6, Irma reached its peak intensity with 185 mph (295 km/h) winds and a minimum pressure of 914 hPa (27.0 inHg), making it the strongest tropical cyclone worldwide so far in 2017. Another eyewall replacement cycle caused Irma to weaken back to a Category 4 hurricane, but the storm attained Category 5 status for a second time while making landfall in Cuba. After dropping to Category 3 intensity due to land interaction, the storm re-intensified to Category 4 as it crossed warm waters between Cuba and Florida before making landfall on Cudjoe Key with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph (215 km/h). Irma dropped back to Category 3 by the time it made a second Florida landfall on Marco Island 2017: The NWS Office in Reno, Nevada, issued their first tornado warning since July 21st, 2014. 2018: Hurricane Florence was a powerful and long-lived Cape Verde hurricane, as well as the wettest tropical cyclone on record in the Carolinas and the ninth-wettest tropical cyclone to affect the contiguous United States. The sixth named storm, third hurricane, and the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Florence originated from a strong tropical wave that emerged off the west coast of Africa on August 30, 2018. Steady organization resulted in the formation of a tropical depression on the next day near Cape Verde. Progressing along a steady west-northwest trajectory, the system acquired tropical storm strength on September 1, and fluctuated in strength for several days over open ocean. An unexpected bout of rapid intensification ensued on September 4– 5, culminating with Florence becoming a Category 4 major hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale with estimated maximum sustained winds of 130 mph

70 / 69 with 0.99 in the bucket so far. Rain should let up by noon and perhaps some late clearing.Trouggh moving through ahead of ridge building in by later Tue - Friday. Inland area mid / upper 80s Wed/Thu. Overall near normal once to 9/18 and beyond there. Need to watch some cutoff potential with the ridge buiding up above and/or some closeby tropics.

Highs: PHL: 83 New Brnswck: 82 TEB: 81 TTN: 81 EWR: 80 ACY: 79 LGA: 79 BLM: 78 NYC: 78 JFK: *77 ISP: 76

About 6 - 8 hours away

Formatting got hosed, good catch. Here is the rightly aligned list EWR 1980 - presnet Rank Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Total 1 2010 1 2 13 21 11 6 0 54 2T 1993 0 3 9 22 11 4 0 49 2T 2022 0 4 6 20 18 1 0 49 4 1988 0 1 10 15 17 0 0 43 5T 1991 0 8 10 9 12 2 0 41 5T 2002 4 1 5 16 14 1 0 41 5T 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41 8T 1983 0 0 7 15 11 7 0 40 8T 2016 0 3 3 16 13 5 0 40 10T 1994 1 1 10 16 9 2 0 39 10T 2025 0 0 10 20 8 1 0 39 EWR full record most 90 days in September: Rank Year September 90°+ days 1 1961 9 2 1983 7 3T 1959 6 3T 2010 6 5T 1970 5 5T 1973 5 5T 2015 5 5T 2016 5 9T 1952 4 9T 1993 4 9T 2005 4 9T 2018 4 9T 2023 4

Made it to 82 ahead of the clouds, now mostly cloudy and down to 79

Records: Highs: EWR: 95 (1961) NYC: 94 (1961) LGA: 94 (1961) JFK: 91 (1981) Lows: EWR: 47 (1958) NYC: 46 (1917) LGA: 52 (1967) JFK: 46 (1967) Historical: 1775: The Independence Hurricane caught many fishing boats on the Grand Banks off Newfoundland Canada killing 4,000 seamen, most from Britain and Ireland. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1857: The SS Central America sinks during a hurricane, killing 425 lives. Fourteen tons of gold was aboard the ship as well. 1869: A hail storm between 1 and 3 AM broke windows and caused considerable damage to late vegetables at Madilia, MN in Watonwan County. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1882 - Hot and dry winds caused tree foliage in eastern Kansas to wither and crumble. (David Ludlum) 1921: The San Antonio River flooded, killing 51 people and causing millions of dollars in damages. The flood was caused by some of the heaviest rainfall ever recorded in Texas. A storm stalled over the town of Taylor and dumped an astounding 23.11 inches of rain on the area in less than a day. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1944: The destroyer USS Warrington was sunk by the Great Atlantic Hurricane 300 miles east of Cape Canaveral, FL. 247 men were lost in the tragedy. The hurricane would pass just east of the North Carolina Outer Banks and make landfall on the east end of Long Island, then pass into Rhode Island. The Great Atlantic hurricane was significant because it was the first storm in which forecasters had regular aircraft reconnaissance reports available. The success convinced the military of the value of reconnaissance and the program continued and evolved to what it is today. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1950: Hurricane Dog was the most intense hurricane in the 1950 Atlantic hurricane season. The fourth named storm of the season, Dog developed on August 30 to the east of Antigua; after passing through the northern Lesser Antilles, it turned to the north and intensified into a Category 5 hurricane. Dog reached its peak intensity with winds of 185 mph (300 km/h) over the open Atlantic and after weakening, it passed within 200 miles (320 km) of Cape Cod Hurricane Dog retains the record for longest continuous duration for a Category 5 Atlantic hurricane, although Hurricane Allen spent more total time as a Category 5. On September 4, Hurricane Dog was one of three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, along with Charlie and Easy. This is a rare occurrence in the Atlantic Ocean, and has only happened six times since 1950—in 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, 1998, and most recently in 2010. This also occurred on August 31 with Baker, Charlie and Dog. Additionally, Dog remains one of only three Category 5 hurricanes in the historical database to avoid land—the others were Easy and Cleo, both of which also occurred in the 1950s. Why was it called the Dog Hurricane? Hurricane naming began back in 1950, when meteorologists wanted to give tropical storms and hurricanes an easy name to remember them by, instead of just plain "Hurricane Six" or "Tropical Storm 8b". So, in 1950, the National Hurricane Center named hurricanes from the World War 2 phonetic alphabet. Hurricanes that year were given names such as "Dog", "Barker", "Item", and "Jig". And yes, these names did sound a little funny, that is probably why they only used these names until 1952. In the Hurricane Season of 1953, they tried a different approach - giving the hurricanes human names. They started out just using female names, and this lasted over 25 years until in 1979, men's names were incorporated into the list. 1950: A hailstorm struck southern parts of Oklahoma City on this day. The storm damaged about 4,000 homes, 300 businesses, and 750 cars, resulting in a loss estimated at $987,000. 1960: Hurricane Donna hits the Boston, MA area. Winds were recorded to 140 mph at the Blue Hills Observatory at Milton, MA and 130 mph at Block Island, RI. Donna was the first hurricane to affect every point along the east coast from Key West, FL to Caribou, ME. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1963: President Kennedy gave his, “We choose to go to the moon” speech at Rice University. 1974: Another three inches of snow fell at Scottsbluff, NE bringing the early season snowfall total to 3.8 inches. Saratoga, WY received 4 inches of snow. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1977 - Thunderstorms deluged the Kansas City area with torrential rains in the early morning hours, and then again that evening. Some places were deluged with more than six inches of rain twice that day, with up to 18 inches of rain reported at Independence MO. Flooding claimed the lives of 25 persons. The Country Club Plaza area was hardest hit. 2000 vehicles had to be towed following the storm, 150 of which had to be pulled out of Brush Creek, which runs through the Plaza area. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac) 1979 - Hurricane Frederick smashed into the Mobile Bay area of Alabama packing 132 mph winds. Winds gusts to 145 mph were reported as the eye of the hurricane moved over Dauphin Island AL, just west of Mobile. Frederick produced a fifteen foot storm surge near the mouth of Mobile Bay. The hurricane was the costliest in U.S. history causing 2.3 billion dollars damage. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1986: 6 to 12 inches of rain in three days resulted in record flooding from Muskegon, MI to Saginaw, MI. The flooding was worsened by the collapse of several dams. 10 people were killed and damage estimates approached $500 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain which caused flooding in North Carolina, West Virginia, Virginia and Pennsylvania. Parts of Virginia received 3 to 4 inches of rain in just two hours early in the day. Later in the day, three to five inch rains deluged Cumberland County of south central Pennsylvania. Evening thunderstorms produced seven inches of rain at Marysville PA, most of which fell in three hours time. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - An afternoon tornado spawned a tornado which skipped across northern sections of Indianapolis IN damaging roofs and automobiles. It was the first tornado in central Indiana in September in nearly forty years of records. Hurricane Gilbert plowed across the island of Jamaica, and by the end of the day was headed for the Cayman Islands, packing winds of 125 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Snow whitened the mountains and foothills of northeastern Colorado, with eight inches reported at Buckhorn Mountain, west of Fort Collins. Two to three inches fell around Denver, causing great havoc during the evening rush hour. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region between mid afternoon and early the next morning. Thunderstorms produced hail three inches in diameter at Roswell NM, and wind gusts greater than 98 mph at Henryetta OK. Thunderstorms also produced torrential rains, with more than seven inches at Scotland TX, and more than six inches at Yukon OK. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1993: The high temperature in Fort Collins, CO was 94°. A strong cold front dropped the temperature overnight and by 10 a.m. the next morning, it was 33° with 3 inches of snow on the ground. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1997: Hurricane Linda became the strongest storm recorded in the eastern Pacific with winds estimated at 180 mph and gusts to 218 mph. For a time it threatened to come ashore in California as a tropical storm, but the storm turned away, impacting the region only with added moisture for showers and thunderstorms. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1999: Extremely dangerous Hurricane Floyd, a Category 4 storm with top winds of 145 mph, was making residents along the U.S. East Coast very nervous as it steamed steadily westward. The storm was 360 miles east of the Bahamas, causing hurricane warnings to be raised in the islands. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2008: Hurricane Ike intensified from tropical storm to Category 3 status in less than nine hours on 3 September. A few days later, Ike crossed the Caribbean and waltzed across extreme western Cuba as a Cat 3. But Ike's peak winds never regained major-hurricane force. Instead, the system simply got bigger, eventually packing some of the largest radii of hurricane-force winds (125 miles) and tropical-storm force winds (275 miles) ever measured. This posed a major public communication challenge, as the vast swath of wind was expected to stir up a storm surge in the Galveston area far worse than people might presume from the storm's Category 2 rating. The worst of Ike's surge struck less-populated areas just east of Galveston Island on the night of 12-13 September, but the overall damage was still tremendous: more than $30 billion (in inflation-adjusted dollars, that's the third costliest U.S. hurricane on record). Much of Galveston and nearby coastal towns were left in shambles, and storm-surge damage extended well east into Louisiana. Ike resulted in 82 U.S. deaths--among the highest tolls in recent decades--and more than 200 people remain missing in the hurricane's aftermath. (Washington Post "Top Ten Weather Events of 2008") 2017: Cape Canaveral Air Force Station have to reopened on September 16th after IRMA of Cat 1 hurricane gave 75 MPH force winds from Hurricane Irma that lashed the Florida Space Coast on Sunday and Monday (Sept. 10/11) – forcing launch delays and leaving damaged and destroyed homes, buildings, infrastructure and launch viewing locations in its wake. Cape Canaveral Air Force Station military forces partially reopened certain critical runways soon after Irma swept by the space coast to assist in emergency recovery operations. The “Kennedy Space Center will resume normal operations Saturday, Sept. 16,” NASA announced. Irma Data 2018: Hurricane Florence was a powerful and long-lived Cape Verde hurricane, as well as the wettest tropical cyclone on record in the Carolinas and the ninth-wettest tropical cyclone to affect the contiguous United States. The sixth named storm, third hurricane, and the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Florence originated from a strong tropical wave that emerged off the west coast of Africa on August 30, 2018. Steady organization resulted in the formation of a tropical depression on the next day near Cape Verde. Progressing along a steady west-northwest trajectory, the system acquired tropical storm strength on September 1, and fluctuated in strength for several days over open ocean. An unexpected bout of rapid intensification ensued on September 4– 5, culminating with Florence becoming a Category 4 major hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale with estimated maximum sustained winds of 130 mph

71 / 60 clear now but clouds increase later and those mostly sunny forecasts may not be so great once to the afternoon. Showers and storms/rain overnight into Sunday morning with the >0.10 rain in 10 days in this otherwise wet period. Overall warmer than normal 9/11 - 9/17 with the warmest days barring onshore flow or clouds Wed-Fri this week as ridge builds to >590 DM and 850 MB temps >20c. Beyond there back to normal and with high pressure closing off a low is a potential along the EC 9/18 - 9/22. Then way out there D10 and beyond ridge looks to build east again.

You left off a few others 1983 had the most Sep 90 degree days then followed by 2010 , 2016 , 1993. Depends on definition of endless summer. EWR 90 degree days monthly break down Rank Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Total 1 2010 1 2 13 21 11 6 0 54 2T 1993 0 3 9 22 11 4 0 49 2T 2022 0 4 6 20 18 1 0 49 4 1988 0 1 10 15 17 0 0 43 5T 1991 0 8 10 9 12 2 0 41 5T 2002 4 1 5 16 14 1 0 41 5T 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41 8T 1983 0 0 7 15 11 7 0 40 8T 2016 0 3 3 16 13 5 0 40 10T 1994 1 1 10 16 9 2 0 39 10T 2025 0 0 10 20 8 1 0 39 All records: Rank Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Total 90°+ 1 2010 1 2 13 21 11 6 0 54 2T 1993 0 3 9 22 11 4 0 49 2T 2022 0 4 6 20 18 1 0 49 4 1988 0 1 10 15 17 0 0 43 5T 1991 0 8 10 9 12 2 0 41 5T 2002 4 1 5 16 14 1 0 41 5T 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41 8T 1959 0 5 5 8 15 6 1 40 8T 1983 0 0 7 15 11 7 0 40 8T 2016 0 3 3 16 13 5 0 40 11T 1944 0 2 6 16 12 3 0 39 11T 1994 1 1 10 16 9 2 0 39 11T 2025 0 0 10 20 8 1 0 39

Today's Highs: EWR: 83 New Brnswck: 83 BLM: 82 PHL: 81 TEB: 80 LGA: 80 TTN: 80 JFK: 79 * missing intra hour highs (2 weeks now) NYC: 79 ACY: 79 ISP: 78

2001

79 / 55 clearing out nicely