SACRUS

2/22 19z HRRR This is 18h or through 13z / 8:00 AM Monday - more to come beyond here

2/22 18z NAM 3k Snow

2/22 18z NAM Snow

2/22 18z RRFS Snow is a undetermoined algorithm

2/22 18z RRFS still snowing by 11AM tomorrow

RRFS (planned to replace the nam/hrr r

just right click the image and copy url link paste into your browser https://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

All just tools for trends not exact qpf or snow totals as the storm is in progeess - go with the actual obs

SREF -

Just need it to stick everywhere

From our artificial summary with inputs: HRRR — primary mesoscale driver Best for: Snow band location Snowfall rates (1–3"/hr) Band evolution / pivoting Useful range: 0–12 h (up to ~18 h trend) How to use: latest 1–3 runs only ⚠️ Do not trust storm-total maps HREF — confidence & persistence Best for: Probability a band persists ≥1"/hr rate probabilities Confidence in HRRR signal Useful range: 0–36 h How to use: confirms whether HRRR is real or noisy RAP — temperatures & p-type Best for: Surface temps Rain/snow/sleet/ZR line CAD holding vs breaking Useful range: 0–12 h How to use: hourly temp & wet-bulb trends ❌ Not for QPF or totals NAM 3 km — vertical structure Best for: Warm nose depth Sleet vs freezing rain Soundings & cross-sections Useful range: 6–36 h How to use: diagnose why p-type is changing ⚠️ QPF often too wet

RAP fairly good with temps vs actuals 2:00 / 19z

34 / 34 grass slowly whitening real accumulations by 4:00-5:00 for here then hopeful 1.2-1.5 LE for 10-18 here.

Snow mixing in here now 35/34 so far about 0.10 in the bucket ahead of the change over probably cut through another 0.05 or 0.10 before starting to accumulate.

2PM on the HRR

Tool Band locationRadar → HRRR Snow rates: HRRR Band confidence: HREF Temps / p-typeObs → RAP → NAM 3k CAD statusObs + RAP

Miller s Maybe this is a C but i was leaning B

down as low as 28 into nyc mainly hovering 29ish

UKMET Snow