SACRUS

83 here and partly sunny.

Tendency has been a factor and needs to be weighted more for weakness undercutting the ridge and the center forcing the strongest heat west / north of coastal/NYC - east.

We'll see how the heat/above normal 6/19 - 6/30 compares with this and the prior cool period in early June. Jun 14 EWR: 71 / 61 (-6) 0.31 NYC: 68 / 59 (-8) 0.23 LGA: 67 / 59 (-10) 0.13 JFK: 66 / 60 (-7) 1.00 Jun 15: EWR: 65 / 59 (-11) 0.19 NYC: 64 / 59 (-10) .03 LGA: 65 / 59 (-11) 0.03 JFK: 63 / 59 (-9) 0.07 Jun 16: EWR: 70 / 62 (-7) 0.03 NYC: 69 / 60 (-7) LGA: 68 / 60 (-10) JFK: 70 / 60 ( -5) Jun 17: EWR: 71 / 63 (-6) NYC: 67 / 62 (-8) LGA: 68 / 62 (-9) JFK: 66 / 64 (-4)

Just touched 80 and saw the sun after not seeing blue skies in 102 hours.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyannualprecip.pdf Good reference

I think we can agree that a drier hotter spell is preferred and it as been a wet stretch the past years but just as hot as some of those years on occasion.

Highest recent 98 in 2021, 97 in 2022 at the park. 100 in 2012.

EWR top 95 + days were more recent than the 40s or 50s, top 5 includes 2021 and 2022. You listed 5 years out of 20 that had record heat you can say the same between 2000 - 2020 / 2010 - 2024 1993 1 25 2010 2 21 2022 3 20 1988 3 20 1944 3 20 2021 6 18 2012 7 17 2011 7 17 2002 7 17 1955 7 17 1949 11 16 2005 12 14

Although EWR has in 2022 most recently if you are going by 90 degree days. look at the record cool in the 50s Lows:EWR: 49 (1950)NYC: 48 (1950)LGA: 49 (1950)JFK: 53 (1959)

Slow to clear

SSW wind now pushing humidity - Dewpoint 69 here More thinning of the clouds and up to 73

Records: Highs: EWR: 97 (1993) NYC: 95 (1929) LGA: 95 (1994) JFK: 94 (1962) Lows: EWR: 49 (1950) NYC: 48 (1950) LGA: 49 (1950) JFK: 53 (1959) Historical: 1875 - A severe coastal storm (or possible hurricane) struck the Atlantic coast from Cape Cod to Nova Scotia. Eastport ME reported wind gusts to 57 mph. (David Ludlum) 1958 - Hailstones up to four inches in diameter killed livestock as a storm passed from Joliet to Belfry in Carbon County MT. (The Weather Channel) 1970 - Wind and rain, and hail up to seven inches deep, caused more than five million dollars damage at Oberlin KS. (The Weather Channel) 1972: Hurricane Agnes was one of the most massive June hurricanes on record. The system strengthened into a tropical storm during the night of the 15th and a hurricane on the 18th as it moved northward in the Gulf of Mexico. 1987 - It was a hot day in the Upper Great Lakes Region. Nine cities in Michigan and Wisconsin reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 90 degrees at Marquette, MI, marked their third straight day of record heat. Severe thunderstorm in the Northern and Central High Plains Region spawned half a dozen tornadoes in Wyoming and Colorado. Wheatridge, CO, was deluged with 2.5 inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Severe thunderstorms in eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota produced hail three inches in diameter and spawned four tornadoes in Steele County. Thunderstorms also produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Clearbrook MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. In Arizona, afternoon highs of 103 degrees at Winslow, 113 degrees at Tucson, and 115 degrees at Phoenix were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1991: Atlanta, GA recorded a new record for the amount of rainfall in one hour as 3.47 inches fell between 6:52 pm and 7:52 pm EDT. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1993: In west central Kansas, heavy rain caused roads in the Syracuse area to flood. As much as one foot of water covered some roads for a short period of time. In Greeley County, golf ball size hail, driven by thunderstorm winds, damaged wheat and broke windows along a four mile path from five miles south of Astor to nine miles south of Astor. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1997: Over 6 inches of rain fell at Columbia, MS in a three hour period and 8.25 inches fell in a 24 hour period. Water entered thirty businesses in Columbia, with 12 of the businesses suffering major damage. Eight homes also suffered flood damage. Many roads were washed out and had to be closed. Numerous cars were under water. This event caused $15 million dollars in property damages. Several roads were also flooded across the south half of Forrest County. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1999: Record morning chill occurred across the Appalachians. Record lows for the date included: , Elkins, WV: 39 °F, Pittsburgh, PA: 43 °F, Bluefield, WV: 46 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

70 / 68 clouds (day 5 hour 108). Should see some breaks and with the sun temps spike low to upper 80s in the hot spots. Storms later this evening along the boundary as the warm front comes north further. Tomorrow a shade hottter than today and again pending on clouds some get their first or next (2nd/ or 3rd) 90 degree reading. Friday drier transition day before the heat builds in Satruday. Euro keeps the mini MCS into New England Sat night into Sunday and the GFS gets rain here Saturday night and lingering debris clouds Sunday keeping the rainy weekend consecutive streak hope alive for those few hoping for more rain. 850 MB temps are >18c Sunday and then >21C Mon - Wed , peak heat Mon - Wed, Tue the century mark most probable. We'll see if the wind / flow keep the N/W component and how hot it'll be. Looking like starting tomorrow 8 of 10 90 degree days to close the month in the hot spots / wamrest scenario otherwise 5-7 of the next 10. In the way beyond Beyond there heights look elevated with ridging into the EC with an overall warm - hot but continued wet look.

Looks like the GFS has some minor MCS into the area while the Euro has it into northern New England on Sunday.

Latest cold period Jun 14 EWR: 71 / 61 (-6) 0.31 NYC: 68 / 59 (-8) 0.23 LGA: 67 / 59 (-10) 0.13 JFK: 66 / 60 (-7) 1.00 Jun 15: EWR: 65 / 59 (-11) 0.19 NYC: 64 / 59 (-10) .03 LGA: 65 / 59 (-11) 0.03 JFK: 63 / 59 (-9) 0.07 Jun 16: EWR: 70 / 62 (-7) 0.03 NYC: 69 / 60 (-7) LGA: 68 / 60 (-10) JFK: 70 / 60 ( -5) Jun 17: EWR: 71 / 63 (-6) NYC: 67 / 62 (-8) LGA: 68 / 62 (-9) JFK: 66 / 64 (-4)

Up to 70 for a high today some breaks in the clouds but rain into NNJ

Up to 68 - 70 in reach

Agreed andI had posted as long or longer stretched of heat since the 40s/50s including the 1988 and 2002 heatwaves for other parts of the forum.

Nothing met the criteria in june for heatwave with 99 degree or higher reading.

Breaks in the clouds

2024 EWR: 6/17: 92 6/18: 91 6/19: 93 6/20: 97 6/21: 100 6/22: 95 6/23: 99 6/24: 84 6/25: 94 6/26 : 98 2021 EWR: 6/27: 95 6/28: 99 6/29: 102 6/30: 103 2017: EWR: 6/11: 94 6/12: 97 6/13: 99 2012: EWR: 6/20: 98 6/21: 99 6/22: 96 2011: EWR: 6/7: 92 6/8: 99 6/9: 102 2008: EWR: 6/7: 97 6/8: 96 6/9: 99 6/10: 99 1994: EWR: 6/14: 98 6/15: 101 6/16: 85 6/17: 91 6/18: 96 6/19: 102

It would be interesting to see the 500MB charts from (Jul 15-20) 2013 and (Jul 16 - 24) 2011 to compare vs the forecasted ridge as well as 2024 (June). Jun 7-10 had some strong heat as well for if talking June specific.

Meanwhile 96 hours of sub 70 a mighty task for June 66 here.

Im not sure I follow this? Heat after jun 20th, meaning no heat until or starting after jun 20th?