SACRUS
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For reference round timeframes for model runs for those new to this: 00z / 12Z SREF: 7:30 PM / AM NAM: 8:50 PM / AM RGEM: 10:00 PM / AM ICON: 9:50 PM / AM GFS: 10:30 PM / AM GFS AI AIGFS: 10:30 PM / AM GGEM: 10:40 PM / AM UKMET: 11:05PM / AM GEFS: 11:30 PM / AM Euro: 12:30AM / PM Euro AI AIFS: 12:40 AM / PM Shorter range models now coming into play within 84 - 60 - 48 RRFS H NAM 3k HRR RPM HRW HRDPA (Canadian)
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Updated 1.4 avg (mean)
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2/20 18z EURZO AI AIFS Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23 - 24 Snow 10:1
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2/20 18z EURO AI AIFS
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12z through and beyond that timeframe was more but overall simialr but more in line with the eastward leaning quicker storm
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UK through 66H with some more to come (similar to 12z)
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2/20 18z GEFS 24H Mean Total QPF
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UKMET to 66 looked similar to 12z
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Updated
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yeah you would almost expect to the the GEM (GGEM and RGEM) so amped by model biases. Its almost as if in an otherwise typical scenario to be concerned of rain/miz - the gfs is to se/its coming nw. But not here.
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2/20 18z GFS Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24
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2/20 18z GFS AI AIGFS Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24
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updated
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RGEM (GEMS) consistent
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18z RGEM Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24
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18z ICON snow 10:1
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2/20 18z ICN Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24
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The stroofle is runing (ICON)
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From the low 30s to the upper 20s in the height of the storm NE-NJ/NYC (27)
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Nam added oofa
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2/20 18z NAm Total QPF 2/22/2/23-24 still had light snow - lets hope we get 50% of this
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Were you hanging with Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini?
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When is the last west of forecast coastal - i truly cant remember in the last 7 - 8 years.? When it used to be a routine occurrence. Not a southwest flow event - i mean true miller a/b or c.
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2/20 18z Summary Total QPF NYC 2/22 - 2/23-24 SFRE F: 1.0 NAM: 2.3 RGEM: 0.6 ICON: 1.2 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.5 GFS: 2.2 GEFS: 1.7 EURO AI AIFS: 1.3 EURO : 0.8
