SACRUS
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Florida like forecast, hot, humid and routine storms next few days. Where the sun comes out temps will spike to near 90. Western Atlantic Ridge Building in Mon - Sat. Later Wed (7/14) through Sat (7/18) looks like the peak heat with 3,4 days of 90s. 850 temps jump to >18c in that period so where its sunny enough for long enough - the hot spots could top in the upper 90s. A cod front come through this weekend but is slow to progress so the period later Sat (7/18 into early next week 7/21 it looks a bit unsettled. Western ridge is pumping heat and should begin to drift eater later next week. Appears any break in heat chances will yield in the 7/25 period. Overall warm to hot - humid and stormy pattern continues.
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7/11 PHL: 88 New Brnswck: 85 ACY: 84 TTN: 84 EWR: 82 LGA: 82 TEB: 82 BLM: 81 ISP: 80 JFK: 79 NYC: 78
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https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif
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Florida style pattern continues. Plenty of clouds the next 2-3 days. Piece of energy near the Bahamas now can be tracked Mon - Tue M riding along the rim of the Western Atlantic ridge as it builds westward. That feature will enhance any storms Tue and into Wed and limit any 90 degree readings with more clouds. Beyond there hazy, hot, humid later Wed (7/14 - Sat (7/17). 850 temps >18c by Thu (7/15) and Fri (7/16). Sun (7/18) in to early next week looks a bit unsettled as the W Atlt Ridge is shoved east and the Western heat machine surgeds. Should see pieces of the heat machine peel east pushing heat into the plains, GL and then into the NE. Next surge of the Atlantic Ridge timing could develop into a very hot finish to July. Overall Florida like humid, hot and plenty of rain chances. No record heat the next 10 days but the warm to hot pattern continues.
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7/10 EWR: 86 New Brnswck: 85 PHL: 85 ACY: 85 TTN: 84 TEB: 84 LGA: 81 NYC: 81 BLM: 80 ISP: 80 JFK: 80
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Couple of day break before returning to the Florida like pattern. Mix of sun and clouds Sat and Sun (7/11) with highs in the low to mid 80s. Transition to the tropical regime Mon (7/12) and Tue (7/13) as the Western Atlantic ridge builds back west, with those days perhaps more stormy and depending on timing and clouds limited 90's. BY Wed (7/14) piece of energy is rounding the edge of the 595 DM ridge and its back to the heat. 850 MB temps >18c and perhaps near 20c Thu (7/15) through Sat (7/17). Have to get through weakness in the ridge that should bring more storms and perhaps a onshore flow for a period in the Sun (7/18) and early week of 7/19. Beyond there the Rockies ridge is still glaring and pieces of that heat machine spreading east in batches. Timing of the next westward of expansion of the W Atl Ridge likely in the last week of July (7/28) period where there could see a link with the Wsetern / Southwest ridge to really pump the heights and heat. Overall warm to hot and stormy continues in this Florida like pattern.
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7/9 EWR: 91 LGA: 89 PHL: 89 New Brnswck: 88 TTN: 88 BLM: 87 ACY: 87 TEB: 87 JFK: 86 ISP: 86 NYC: 85
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7/9 EWR: 91 LGA: 89 PHL: 89 New Brnswck: 88 TTN: 88 BLM: 87 ACY: 87 TEB: 87 JFK: 86 ISP: 86 NYC: 85
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Monthly rain totals (so far) NYC: 6.49 LGA: 4.32 EWR: 4.49 New Brnswck: 2.95 TTN: 2.5 ISP: 2.42 JFK: 2.73
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http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif
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Elsie departs, joining Fay and Arthur in early July tropical systems in the last 10 years. Should see some clearing in the wake of the storm in the next few hours. Sat (7/10) - Mon (7/13) transitioning from current high humidity to the next resurge. Temps mostly below 90 but outside of Saturday, showers and storms chances . By Tuesday the Western Atlantic Ridge is building back high pressure west in to the EC, Tuesday may see hung up front still stubborn to wash out but clouds the only thing from preventing the next string of 90s to commence. P Otherwise- Wed (7/14) through Sat (7/17) Florida style pattern hot, humid wuth routine thunderstorms. Wed/Thu 850 temps surging to >18c , with enough sun the wsw flow could push near the century mark at LGA/ EWR other metro areas. Lots of rain in the ground for the park to nudge past 93 on the hottest days. Beyond there into the middle of the month and yonder overall warm to hot and humidity (Florida-like) looks to persist. Western heat furnace looks to shoot scorching heat east in spatters. Mean trough into the GL with Ridging on both west and east coasts. We wait for the merge to see potential record heat to end the month.
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7/8 New Brnswck: 91 PHL: 90 BLM: 90 ACY: 89 TTN: 89 EWR: 88 TEB: 86 NYC: 84 JFK: 81 ISP: 80 LGA: 80
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7/8 New Brnswck: 91 PHL: 90 BLM: 90 ACY: 89 TTN: 89 EWR: 88 TEB: 86 NYC: 84 JFK: 81 ISP: 80 LGA: 80
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7/7 EWR: 97 LGA: 96 PHL: 96 New Brnswck: 94 TEB: 94 ACY: 94 BLM: 93 TTN: 93 NYC: 91 ISP: 90 JFK: 89
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7/7 EWR: 97 LGA: 96 PHL: 96 New Brnswck: 94 TEB: 94 ACY: 94 BLM: 93 TTN: 93 NYC: 91 ISP: 90 JFK: 89
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1.49 in the bucket and some strong winds last night, storm(s) didnt seem to want to end. Back to the furnace/saune today with more mid / upper 90s and later evening storms. Tomorrow its all about timing with clouds/storms and arrival of Elsie later overnight Thu and into Friday morning. Otherwise steamy and hot Thursday (7/8) as well and more 90s possible. Friday (7/9) looks remnants will drop 1 - 2 inches of rain by the afternoon as the storm pulls out. Saturday hung up front could see some lingering clouds and shower before turning noticeably warmer by Sunday (7/11) and into Monday (7.12). The western Atlantic ride is building back Tuesday (7/13) and beyond through the work week with more heat (90s) and humidity. Beyond there and towards / after mid month wester ridge and the heat machine looks to send high heat east into the Plains and then east, we'll need to see if the W Atl Ridge can connect later in July. other wise warm to hot / humid and likely routine storms
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7/6 EWR: 97 LGA: 96 New Brnswck: 95 TEB: 95 PHL: 94 BLM: 93 TTN: 93 NYC: 92 ACY: 91 JFK: 87 ISP: 85
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7/6 EWR: 97 LGA: 96 New Brnswck: 95 TEB: 95 PHL: 94 BLM: 93 TTN: 93 NYC: 92 ACY: 91 JFK: 87 ISP: 85
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https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif
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hazy tinge from summer fires. Reminiscent of 2002 when smoke limited some record highs that June / July.
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48 - 60 hours (Tue 7/6 and Wed 7/7) of some high heat and humidity with some evening storms today / wed. Thu also warm to hot but tropical remnants tracking near the area by Thu (7/8) overnight into Friday. Some storms enhanced by the tropical fetch on Thu then impacts from the elsie on Friday. Beyond there a bit more tropical this weekend Sat (7/10) and Sun (7/11) Florida like warmth and humidity and plenty of showers and storms. Western Atlantic ridge builds back and out West the Heat machine rebuilds over the south west, looks like santa anna next week into southern california. Back here Mon (7/12) through mid week looks very warm to hot but continued storminess routinely. More chance of 90s by Monday an into the mid week. Beyond there and into mid month pieces of the western heat factory spilling east as we ride the rim of the W Atlantic ridge. Overall warm to hot and routine storminess. Later in the month could see larger ridge or perhaps linking between the Western Ridge and the W. Atl ride.
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7/5 EWR: 89 PHL: 88 New Brnswck: 88 TTN: 87 ACY: 85 BLM: 84 TEB: 84 LGA: 84 NYC: 83 JFK: 81 ISP: 78
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After a fabulous fourth its a trip back into the frying pan after today. Today a splendid summery day sunshine (outside some high smoke) and highs in the mid and upper 80s. Frying pan Tue and Wed as piece of the western heat spills east over the area. 850 temps >18c - 21C. Depending on smoke from the fires, as others have been discussin LGA and EWR and other spots could see the century mark Tue (7/6) - Wed (7/7). Cue Sonny and Cher the Heat goes on. Watching the tropics and exact track of Elsi, some storms enhanced Thu and Fri (7/9). Otherwise very humid. Season of the Western Atlantic Ridge comes back in the 7/10 and beyond 595 DM forecast along the coast by next Monday (7/12). Overall warm to hot, with routine storms (Florida - style) pattern marches on.
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a couple such occasions in the midst of that hot month. 2011 had one too but none stayed below 70 for highs EWR 7/2/1993: 74/68 (1.50) 7/26/1993: 76/68 (0.41) 7/3/2011: 76/72 (0.29)
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Much improved and its a quick transition back to a Florida-style pattern. Warmer today in out of clouds and periods of mostly sunny conditions should yield temps low 80s / 70s along the beaches. Slight chance of showers mainly after 5 PM as last piece of the ULL moves through, but i think its ok for fireworks and bbqs. Monday the 5th low to mid and perhaps a few stray upper 80s and flow goes wSW and we warm up. Tue (7/6) and Wed (7/7) SW flow and pieces of the western heat spilles east into the area, perhaps another shot at the century mark for EWR/LGA - likely an outside chance but very hot mid and upper 90s. Look for some storms Wed (7/7)evening. Thursday /more humid by way of ssw flow and pop up showers / storms but warm. Friday (7/9) and Saturday (7/10) looks stormy as Elsa tracks just south of the area and front is enhanced. Sunday 7/11 and beyond - Western Atltantic ridge expands back along the east coast with a similar projected / forecasted progression as was the case ahead of the late June (last week) ridge. Overall warm to hot but plenty of Florida-style humidity and storms.
