SACRUS

77 / 62 the heat is on. Ridge building in to 594 DM with 850 MB temps spiking to >21C Mon - Wed. Partly cloudy 90 for the hotter spots today, otherwise upper 80s. Mid - upper 90s tomorrow, outside chance of century mark in the hottest spots. Only clouds / seasbreaze woudl hinder 100s in the hot spots inland Monday, with Tuesday the hottest day with widespread 100s . Wed a chance at the tri century if clouds / storms dont get in the way. T hu/ FRi deal with more storms as ridge wanes and we ride the periphery with storms and some stonger onshore. The weekend sees ridge re build with more heat in the 6/28 - 7/2 peeiod. Beyond there overall warm - hot / humid and wetter with storm chances. J uly 4th forecast to begin as in long range 336 hours forecast range. 6/21 - 6/25 : Hot - mainly dry heatwave 6/26 - 6/27 : Storms reduce or break heat 6/28 - 7/2 : heat builds back more 90s, storm chances 7/3 - Beyond : Warm - Hot, Humid overall - wettter storms

79 / 59 a gorgeous summer evening.

102 July 1, 1963 all others were 99 in June

Highs: EWR: 87 ISP: 86 JFK: 86 PHL: 86 ACY: 86 LGA: 85 TEB: 85 New Brnswck: 84 BLM: 84 TTN: 83 NYC: 82

All look to dry up beyoond CPA

Ended on a partly cloudy note Gorgeous day Clouds and some showers storms back in PA look to fizzle out, but some clouds overnight and into the morning perhaps

81 / 56 partly cloudy as some clouds move in from the north

JFK highest was 99 in 1949: Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) June 1 73 53 0.00 0.0 June 2 71 53 0.00 0.0 June 3 70 52 0.00 0.0 June 4 75 56 0.00 0.0 June 5 76 65 0.00 0.0 June 6 79 64 0.00 0.0 June 7 84 61 0.00 0.0 June 8 73 53 0.00 0.0 June 9 72 53 0.00 0.0 June 10 69 55 0.00 0.0 June 11 79 62 0.00 0.0 June 12 80 66 0.00 0.0 June 13 76 65 0.00 0.0 June 14 76 65 0.00 0.0 June 15 79 65 0.00 0.0 June 16 82 67 0.00 0.0 June 17 82 69 0.00 0.0 June 18 82 70 0.00 0.0 June 19 81 71 0.00 0.0 June 20 82 69 0.00 0.0 June 21 87 73 0.00 0.0 June 22 91 71 0.00 0.0 June 23 88 68 0.00 0.0 June 24 86 65 0.00 0.0 June 25 85 71 0.00 0.0 June 26 99 75 0.00 0.0 June 27 93 66 0.00 0.0 June 28 77 62 0.00 0.0 June 29 75 60 0.00 0.0 June 30 76 62 0.00 0.0 July 1949 JFK Airport Weather Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) July 1 81 62 0.00 0.0 July 2 84 67 0.00 0.0 July 3 92 72 0.00 0.0 July 4 96 76 0.00 0.0 July 5 96 76 0.00 0.0 July 6 83 69 0.40 0.0 July 7 80 64 0.03 0.0 July 8 78 65 0.00 0.0 July 9 78 65 0.00 0.0 July 10 77 69 0.05 0.0 July 11 84 67 0.00 0.0 July 12 78 71 0.21 0.0 July 13 83 70 0.67 0.0 July 14 88 70 0.00 0.0 July 15 83 72 0.00 0.0 July 16 81 72 0.00 0.0 July 17 76 70 0.83 0.0 July 18 90 74 0.00 0.0 July 19 89 75 0.00 0.0 July 20 87 75 0.00 0.0 July 21 91 78 0.00 0.0 July 22 94 76 0.00 0.0 July 23 91 73 0.00 0.0 July 24 84 64 0.00 0.0 July 25 90 71 0.16 0.0 July 26 84 71 0.00 0.0 July 27 84 71 0.22 0.0 July 28 98 70 0.00 0.0 July 29 94 76 0.00 0.0 July 30 93 77 0.00 0.0 July 31 86 74 0.00 0.0 August 1949 JFK Airport Weather Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) August 1 85 67 0.00 0.0 August 2 83 67 0.00 0.0 August 3 83 72 0.08 0.0 August 4 78 73 0.52 0.0 August 5 84 72 0.00 0.0 August 6 90 70 0.00 0.0 August 7 89 71 0.00 0.0 August 8 89 72 0.00 0.0 August 9 95 75 0.00 0.0 August 10 94 76 0.00 0.0 August 11 99 76 0.02 0.0 August 12 88 70 0.88 0.0 August 13 80 68 1.53 0.0 August 14 79 68 0.00 0.0 August 15 78 64 0.00 0.0 August 16 80 68 0.02 0.0 August 17 78 65 0.00 0.0 August 18 74 64 0.00 0.0 August 19 80 62 0.00 0.0 August 20 77 55 0.00 0.0 August 21 83 56 0.00 0.0 August 22 80 63 0.00 0.0 August 23 82 61 0.00 0.0 August 24 83 69 0.36 0.0 August 25 78 61 0.00 0.0 August 26 82 63 0.00 0.0 August 27 85 70 0.00 0.0 August 28 81 72 0.00 0.0 August 29 84 69 0.39 0.0 August 30 80 65 0.00 0.0 August 31 78 68 1.47 0.0 September 1949 JFK Airport Weather Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) September 1 82 63 0.08 0.0 September 2 74 53 0.00 0.0 September 3 76 56 0.00 0.0 September 4 76 59 0.00 0.0 September 5 78 67 0.42 0.0 September 6 78 59 0.19 0.0 September 7 70 54 0.00 0.0

How did they calculate regional , continental 500MB heights then ? how large was the network of radiosondes and balloons then vs now? I havwe to go ovack to the 2001 heat dome in August and the 2011, 2013 how did they stack both were >594 DM from my recollection .

Interesting how many balloons and radiosondes were deployed or utilized in 30s-40s and 50s to get regional or national 500MB observations. Id argue those heat domes were just as high then with those readings.

78 / 57 and breezy

I am not sure about 2012 being good reference for this year - we'll see. I was thinking more along the lines of a warmer 2024 and perhaps evolving towards years that favor a warmer-hotter August / early Aug - early Sep. Thus current ridge may throw a wrench - its a crap shoot.

We have had heat domes the last few years, the majority went north and caused an onshore flow at times. Some of the more impressing heat domes were the 2013 ridge backing in and hooking with the continental ridge, the 2011 ridge and the 2001 early August ridge. Im sure the years you mentioned had similar heat domes to this and the 2012, 1988, 93 ones.

Look to get through June with no Tropical activity or systems on the Atlantic side

Eric pumping the moisture feed into NM and the Upper Midwst wet the next week. Next meanigful rain shot Sat night (isolated mainly north) and Wed pm / evening.

Records: Highs: EWR: 98 (2012) NYC: 98 (1923) LGA: 98 (2012) JFK: 94 (2012) Lows: EWR: 52 (1956) NYC: 49 (1914) LGA: 55 (1959) JFK: 55 (2005) Historical: 1682 - A major tornado ripped through southwestern Connecticut, passing through Stratford, Milford, and New Haven, and then into Long Island Sound. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1921 - Circle, MT, received 11.5 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the state. The town of Circle received a total of 16.79 inches of rain that month to establish a rainfall record for any town in Montana for any month of the year. (The Weather Channel) 1928 - A farmer near Greensburg, KS, looked up into the heart of a tornado. He described its walls as rotating clouds lit with constant flashes of lightning and a strong gassy odor with a screaming, hissing sound . (The Weather Channel) 1964 - A squall line producing large hail swept through central Illinois. A second squall line moved through during the early morning hours of the 21st, and a third one moved through shortly after dawn. The series of hailstorms caused nine million dollars damage. Hailstones as large as grapefruit caused heavy damage to trees, utility lines, crops and buildings. The thunderstorms also produced as much as five inches of rain in an eight hour period. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Thunderstorms prevailed east of the Rockies, producing severe weather in the Central High Plains Region. Thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Colorado, and produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Goodland, KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thirty-eight cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 97 degrees at Flint, MI, and 104 degrees at Chicago, IL, equalled records for the month of June. Thunderstorms in North Dakota produced baseball size hail near Kief, and wind gusts to 100 mph near McGregor. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - An early morning thunderstorm produced wind gusts to 61 mph at Pierre, SD, and the hot thunderstorm winds raised the temperature from 86 degrees at midnight to 96 degrees by 1 AM, and 104 degrees by 2 AM. Butte, MT, and Yellowstone Park, WY, reported snow that afternoon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989:A meteorological "hot flash" hit Pierre. Descending air from collapsing thunderstorms caused the temperature in Pierre to warm from 86 degrees at midnight to 96 at one a.m. and to 104 at 2 a.m. Pierre's record high for the date of 105 degrees in 1974. 2001: Large hail driven by strong thunderstorm winds raked Denver International and front-range airports. Wind gusting to 54 mph along with hail as large as 2 inches in diameter punched at least 14 thousand holes and cracks in the flat roofs of several buildings at Denver International Airport. Also, 93 planes and hundreds of cars were damaged. About 100 flights had to be canceled stranding 1500 travelers. The Airport was completely shut down for about 20 minutes. The storm also damaged ground avoidance radar used to track planes on the ground to prevent collisions. Damage was estimated at 10 million dollars not counting the cost to the 93 airliners. The storm moved south and struck Watkins Colorado with hail as large as 2 1/2 inches in diameter and winds gusting to 60 mph.

71 / 56 . Breezy gorgeous day as the transition bridge to the strong ridge and building heat. Hot Saturday through the end of the month with peak heat Sun - Wed / with Mon-Tue hottest days area wide with century mark potential certainly in the hot spots but more area as well. A nice weekend with storms looking to stay north and clouds clearing to allow sunday off to the races by the afternoon. Storms Wed pm / night could spoil a 3 100 day streak. Ridge rebuilds towards the 27th for next weekend 6/28 - 6/29. Beyond there overall warm - hot but looks like it could remain wetter with storm chances as ridge in west and along the coast keeps a more humid flow with building heat into the north and east.

Looks like dew points temps maxed out at 75/76 is the highest i see today. Slowly dropping now into the upper 60s.

Ended with around 0.52

More storms moving into EPA - then to NWNJ

Highs EWR: 93 BLM: 93 PHL: 93 ACY: 93 TTN: 91 New Brnswck: 91 TEB: 91 LGA: 90 NYC: 88 ISP: 86 JFK: 85

Winds here gusted to 56 MPH and dropped 0.49 of rain , still raining lightly now. High 91

Highs EWR: 93 BLM: 93 PHL: 93 ACY: 93 TTN: 91 New Brnswck: 91 TEB: 91 LGA: 90 NYC: 88 ISP: 86 JFK: 85

Storms building to SW into NJ