jdj5211

RAP still likes the heavy band in Northern NJ/NYC area

18Z NAM Kuchura

18Z RAP is a nice hit....

Kuchura is actually showing more than the 10:1 map on most models. Being this will all fall mostly overnight with temps in the high 20s could lead to better than 10:1 in some spots

Next chance is this Saturday

Here are the current surface temps: Cold air is just about creeping into NW corner of NJ. We'll see how fast it can get through the region

RAP needs to come about 75 miles NW to be in the sweet spot. Still holding firm on heaviest axis of snow through CNJ and LI

Latest 18Z RDPS keeps heaviest snowfall right over NNJ/NYC Metro

Latest 18Z ICON holds heaviest snowfall axis to the north

latest 20Z RAP at 10:1 ratio....heaviest snows remain through CNJ. NY state basically a complete miss at this point

This is literally a 6-7 hour storm, it's moving very quick. Even if you average an inch an hour, at best it's a 6 inch storm. No one is getting a foot of snow here. 3-6 is the safest call, with maybe a few 6+ lollipops in my opinion

Jan 29, 2022?

Look at the NAM 10-1 map and then the Kuchera map....notice anything? Kuchura was cutting totals 2-3 inches earlier....now it's almost identical in NNJ...models start to pick up on colder solution, trending back towards a 10-1 ratio....

NAM is a big hit....can't ignore this trend now....

Model temps are not an exact science....nothing is.... I'm about 4-5 degrees colder today than I was "supposed" to be....we'll see if models play temperature catchup as we get closer