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About Eduardo

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    Lindenhurst, NY
  1. Classic Niña look too, no? Even if we get some appreciable Atlantic blocking this year, I'm increasingly becoming concerned that we are going to need some significant PAC PNA/EPO to pare back the SE ridge. The fact that our Niña seems east-based and relatively weak offers some hope though. Next few weeks will be telling, in my (amateur) opinion.
  2. Excellent post! Thanks so much for leaving it here. WRT 1954-55, what did temps look like in DJFM? Did a craptastic Pacific doom us?
  3. Yeah you put this point much more elegantly than I did. At what point do we classify Greenland ridging as blocking? Is it a matter of degree, duration, or both? Thanks for explaining! When do wavelengths tend to lengthen?
  4. Didn't we learn anything from last year? And doesn't the ridging east of Hawaii and troughing on the WC suggest that something about this solution seems off?
  5. Don, I was thinking about this yesterday when I saw the forecast for Lam. Do late-season storms of Nuri's caliber have a long-term, seasonal effect on the pattern and possibly our sensible weather? For example, did Nuri contribute in any substantial way to the wonderful EPO-driven tundra we experienced in the 2014-15 winter, or can we only say with confidence that it drove the November 2014 cold shot?
  6. Don't get me wrong. I'm *not* saying we are cooked. But it does seem like the Pacific side makes or breaks us this year. No reasons to be overly optimistic or pessimistic at this point. Next few weeks will paint a clearer picture, I think. Also, if the last few winters teach us anything, it's that long-range forecasting has a long long way to go... Out of curiosity (please don't bombard me with weenie icons :-P), how did worldwide ocean temps compare in 1995 at this time of year? Was the (weak) Niña waxing or waning at this point and what did the PDO look like? From what I understand, that was a -QBO winter (correct me if I'm wrong, of course).
  7. I feel slightly more confident in a more favorable Atlantic this year, compared to the past few winters (a low threshold, I know). But a hostile Pacific (i.e., a GOA death vortex) can spoil the party as we saw in 2012 (which was also a La Niña year, if I remember correctly). Still way early though.....
  8. Surprised at the number of them bending her back toward the NNW later in the period. Are those all based off of the same model?
  9. How does this trend compare with the dynamics which drove Floyd up the coast in '99? Anyone have upper air maps handy for comparison?
  10. Whoa take it easy! He's a respected poster who provided a link to a more comprehensive explanation of his thoughts a few pages back: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/09/historically-intense-hurricane-irma.html
  11. What's the point of guessing the track before the next frame even comes out? Just let te run play itself out. Then analyze it!
  12. Granted I am hardly a pro, but I think that's a wise approach, yes. My main point was that any appearance of model agreement on an outcome 7-days out has a huge potential of being an illusion amidst chaos. I feel like, over the years, people's thirst for model porn has become unquenchable, and they've lost touch with their main purpose, which is to provide guidance. Bona fide forecasting involves so much more than just: "Yeah it's 8 days out, Model A says x and Model B says y....I lean towards Model A because [insert weenie justification]."
  13. Precisely!
  14. I think people need to take a step back here and realize that this is still a week away from any type of impact on the US mainland and that focusing on LF points is beyond futile at this range. Even apparent consensuses among models regarding track at this range potentially would be really misleading given the lead time (i.e., they can appear to "converge" on a solution that ends up woefully wrong in the end). Climo still carries a great deal of weight despite the modeled anomalous pattern--though perhaps climo is slightly less weighty than usual given the current WSW movement--and it favors OTS.
  15. There was some. My location was under a Hurricane Watch for a time. I definitely remember staying up all night as an 8 year old watching it on TWC. I'm still waiting for it to make that hook!