Buffalo Bumble

Sitting at 85 deg at BUF with sun about to set. Unreal.

Can the mighty lake shadow finally be defeated?? That’s a stout line of storms!

Thanks man. If we ever leave WNY it will be to move closer to our place on Chaumont. 3.5 hours is a bit long to make it every weekend in the summer, so we average about 5 trips. Harder to leave every time though. We make the 15 minute drive to Cape Vincent/Clayton often. I’ve started hiking on Wellsley Island the last couple years. Views of the St Lawerence river from some of the ridges on the island are unbelievable. And the weather along the St Lawerence is so changeable. Storms drive in from Canada in the blink of an eye.

View from our cottage this afternoon looking out on Chaumont Bay. Thunderheads associated with a storm over Oswego County barely visible on the horizon.

Radar has been impressive in and around Rochester for the last few hours. Looks like some 4"+ amounts possible. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Buffalo NY 921 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018 The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southwestern Wayne County in western New York... Southeastern Monroe County in western New York... Northwestern Ontario County in western New York... * Until 1245 PM EDT. * At 918 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across eastern Monroe County and far northwest Ontario and far southwest Wayne County. Two to three inches of rain have already fallen, with additional rainfall amounts of up to an inch expected. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Penfield, Perinton, Fairport, Victor, Macedon, and Farmington. This includes Interstate 90 between exits 45 and 44.

The lake shadow has been working overtime all summer. I would have thought the water temps were warm enough by now to limit its influence, but yesterday was another great example of precip being dried up NE of L Erie and enhanced to the SE.

The lake shadow did its job here. Nothing but a sprinkle as the front pushed through.

Lake Erie did it's dirty work today squashing the hopes and dreams of summer enthusiasts in the city and surrounding areas. I hit the mid 70's very early in the day, then temp steadily dropped starting around 3PM. Bottomed out in the low 60's. Quite fascinating to drive about 5 miles east to Wegmans and see people out in shorts while frolicking in the summer warmth. Then return home to see people in sweats and hoodies, hunched over as the chill in the air from the icy waters hangs on top of us like a heavy weight, all while winds gust to 50 mph and slap a "real feel" of 51 degrees in your face. 8 PM obs: CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS NIAGARA FALLS MOCLDY 76 54 46 SW16 29.92R BUFFALO MOCLDY 62 48 60 SW10 29.94S DUNKIRK CLOUDY 73 54 51 SW13G18 29.96R JAMESTOWN CLOUDY 74 53 48 SW10 30.02R WELLSVILLE MOCLDY 77 46 33 W10G21 30.03R ROCHESTER LGT RAIN 74 53 48 W18 29.93R PENN YAN MOCLDY 77 46 33 W10G21 29.95R $$

Yeah, I noticed that too. I went from thinking GFS was on crack, to thinking here we go yet again as every model defeats all seasonal norms and smothers us under a cold trof from the far reaches of Siberia.

Hope everyone enjoys some sun and warmer temps for the next few days. My early call for next weekend is 6-12" for CNY, 4-8" for WNY....Rochester should jackpot.

Some crazy stats for BUF thru first 19 days of April: * At least a trace of snow has fallen on 14 of the first 19 days of the month (at least 0.1 inch on 12 days). * Avg temp thru yesterday was 8.2 deg below normal. I expect that will drop further after today. * Precip is 1.63 inches above average. * Temp has been at or below freezing for a low on all but 2 days. * Robins have been seen frozen in place, Al Gore was caught crying on the shores of Lake Erie, and local residents have switched to a diet rich in whale blubber to increase body fat in an effort to stay warm when leaving their homes. Ok, the last one was slightly embellished, but pretty remarkable month we're having...

That’s impossible. Sun angle is too high.

Mine dropped from an A- at the middle of March to an F-. Small piece of revenge I can exact on the atmosphere after getting brutalized every time I walk outside for the last 45 days. At least now I know what a March and April would look like if I lived in Moosonee, Canada on the shores of James Bay. Dark, dank, wet, cold, windy, and snowy, day after day after day after day....

Gotta say, the weather the last 45 days has been eye opening for me in terms of what's possible around here. I always felt like winter was fleeting at best after the middle of March. Sure, snow is always possible, and even likely into early April, but winter ends up fighting a losing battle with spring (sun angle, warmer temps, blah blah - here today, gone tomorrow). But after seeing a not terribly deep snow pack sit and turn into a mini glacier from the middle to end of March, despite day after day of sun...and then seeing over an inch of sleet on the ground in mid April sit in place for a day, followed the next day (yesterday) by a wind driven 3-5" of snow which mostly accumulated during the daylight...and followed today (April 17th!) by a Currier and Ives snow day with big fluffy flakes dropping from the sky refreshing a solid snow pack (all while a "mid August sun angle" takes cover somewhere behind the gray cloud deck)....I'll never doubt winter's staying power through April again.

Puking giant fat flakes of wet snow. Accumulating efficiently under non-existent April sun. This after 1"+ of sleet and freezing rain yesterday. Followed wonderfully by a heavy cold rain this morning. On April freaking 16th. MAKE IT STOP