Buffalo Bumble

54 degrees and pouring rain here right now at 11:15 am on June 16, yikes! We’ve lost the lawn at our cottage on Chaumont Bay to Lake Ontario. Water is now at the cottage steps. On the plus side, I can launch my paddle board right from the porch! Climate change, bad luck, biblical scourge...?

Another beautiful April day here. Sun is shining with temps in the 50’s and a stiff breeze. What, it’s June 14th? No way!!! I’ll stand on the year without a summer train until the pattern we’ve been in since March changes. Until then, rain, cool, and gray dominates with temporary teases of summer.

It’s been 9 months since we’ve had 4 straight days of no measurable rain or snow. https://www.newyorkupstate.com/weather/2019/06/driest-stretch-of-weather-in-nine-months-coming-for-upstate-ny.html

The weather from about Syracuse up to Saranac Lake looks like it's been especially shi#$y today. Hours and hours of rain with temps in the low 40's in the north to low 50's in the south.

Interesting note thrown into the forecast discussion by BUF today (bold text below). It does seem like zonal flow is a rarity nowadays. Always seems to be an anomalous trof or ridge somewhere in CONUS, no matter the season. The most impressive part of this upcoming pattern is not the blocking, its evolution, nor anything of that nature...as the pattern over the CONUS has been largely a slowly-evolving block for the majority of a matter of years now. Instead, the shear magnitude of upper ridging with some members of the GEFS family eclipsing 590 dam over WNY by Sunday is reminiscent of a latter half of July scenario rather than a late spring scenario. That said, it is difficult to find any solution from operational or ensemble guidance that fails to yield at least 584 dam over WNY by Sunday, when the strongest concurrence for a continuation of dry weather exists. That said, MOS guidance can largely be thrown out the window as it will be far too dependent upon its sun angle calculation (which many refer to as its climatology component), and a more straightforward examination of mixing profiles will need to be undertaken. We should easily mix out through 850 mb, if not higher, so mid 80s (at least) seem like a good bet most areas away from the immediate lakeshores, with inland warmer areas probably locally approaching 90F.

Appreciate the optimism, but last May was 8 deg above normal and June came in 1 deg above normal. We’ll be about 7 deg below normal for June after today.

Too early to question if a year without a summer incoming? I know that sounds fatalistic and likely the byproduct of sitting here in early June going on 72+ hours with the Mercury not once topping 60 degrees, but...it’s not without precedent. We’ve had other summers where “summer” never launched. Just weeks and weeks of damp, cool weather interspersed with very brief heat spikes. Forgetting for a second the incessant cold and wet we’ve endured since “spring” started on April 1, just look at what lies ahead. What should be a few mild (not warm/hot) fair days starting Friday is squashed on the modeling by yet another deep trof in SE Canada. Until and unless our predominant flow stops coming from a polar bears ass frolicking on the ice of Hudson Bay I’ll keep questioning if summer will come to these parts this year.

Looking at the sky all day wondering why it looks white despite sun being out. Just saw mention in BUF discussion that smoke from fires in NW Canada is moving over the area. The atmosphere is officially doing everything possible to ensure no blue sky in upstate NY. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a nice enough day with mild temps and filtered sun. But still, WTF.

Really quite frustrating at this point. Struggling to break 60 for 2+ days this close to June is pretty brutal, not to mention the perpetual darkness from the dense gray cloud deck. Just an incessant W/NW flow into our area from the permanent Low pressure near James Bay. Thanks Canada.

TOR warning just popped near Belmont

Music to my ears. Hopefully lake chilled breezes don’t get too far away from the shores. I was in downtown BUF for a bit this evening. Temp dropped from 64 at my house to 50 down at canal side.

From 72 hours of rain and temps in the 40s here to thunderstorms and torrential rain less than 24 hours later. Deluge ongoing right now with frequent lightning. I mean, can the weather be any more of a sh%+ show here?

We’ve had a short respite here in WNY. Sun broke out yesterday afternoon and full sun to start today. Looks short lived though. Bummer you guys out east are still stuck in the gloom.

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/weather/2019/05/is-climate-change-to-blame-for-lake-ontarios-alarming-water-levels.html

Good to see, hope it holds up! Persistence of this pattern has been remarkably annoying. Haven’t checked online, but have to think L Ontario water levels could be a problem like we had a couple years ago.