Blizzard-on-GFS

After it totally botched the forecast on the last storm for Central New Jersey I’ve lost a lot of trust in it…

check out the massive differences below. 10” for CNJ on 10-1 vs 2” on snow depth. That should always be a tell tale sign.

One thing I’ve learned from this is if temperatures are iffy, always use the snow depth snow maps, or look at soundings. Kuchera and 10-1 maps were completely off, even the 12z Kuchera this morning were printing out over 8 inches of snow for central New Jersey when most places in that area ended up with 1-2” at best. I remember last night the RGEM snow depth had about 1 to 3 inches for the area so it was pretty dang close and it was also pretty good for north and west areas where it had 6 to 8 inches modeled.

Epic Bust here in CNJ happy for the NW crew though. We got less than 2" and it has all been completely melted by mid-afternoon here in Bordentown, NJ. Kind of amazing how every model this morning had 4-8" for the area. Probably got around 1.5" if that....

That 1-3” zone is going to bust terribly. Should be at least 4-8”

i-95 CRUSHJOB!

Starting to buy into the idea of an area-wide 5-10". With real heavy rates.

BARK BARK!

Yes, slightly but the whole idea that this is going to be nothing but rain for odd 95 is definitely a doomer attitude. This is legitimate threat for I 95.

Well, well well, the “it’s going to trend north Crew” is in shambles right now lol.

Ripping snow down in Manahawkin, radar looks great down here, we only saw a little over an inch with the earlier bands. This is our chance here for accumulations. SE Jersey coast looks to be in good shape. Waiting/hoping that this band pivots into an inverted trough as the low pulls away. Gonna be real interesting to see if that feature ends up setting up or not.

Waiting from them to drop a TOR warning on that bucks county cell. Rotation keeps strengthening

Huge bow echo. Gonna be widespread wind damage with this. Lots of reports already to the west.

Is this rotation on both cells? Might see a TOR warning soon…

Got some weak rotation on this cell; watching it closely. Could pop off.0