3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Moderate Risk) | Latest: 15% TOR, 60% WIND, 5% HAIL

[ravensrule]

58 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Excellent, if true. 

Come on, don’t you want to see people die in a tornado. This place cracks me up. 

[MDphotog]

2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Considering line doesn't come through til close to 8 that's plenty of time for more destabilization. The 9-10am thing is an opinion only.

Pretty big difference in the big models (NAM, Euro) and the HRRR.  HRRR has it much earlier in the afternoon for the main line of storms.  2 - 5pm for most of the area.

[SolidIcewx]

24 minutes ago, hstorm said:

I don’t get why anyone roots for severe storms. Especially in populated areas. There are real people with real homes whose lives could be upended. My hope is for a complete bust. 

Obviously no one wants anyone hurt or damage to the things we worked hard for such as home and vehicles. Opinion varies widely. I know in my case i work Utility and welcome some overtime as long as there are not any injuries.

[wasnow215]

1 minute ago, MDphotog said:

Pretty big difference in the big models (NAM, Euro) and the HRRR.  HRRR has it much earlier in the afternoon for the main line of storms.  2 - 5pm for most of the area.

Not a big HRRR "fan" haha. Not sure of exact verification scores but I know they're not real good 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Let’s keep the ethics debates in banter. We know severe weenies will be rooting for an F5 even as it barrels towards their house and launches them into the stratosphere. 

[H2O]

There are already a number of TORs spinning up down south and you can’t tell me they needed a lot of sun at 8am. 

[aldie 22]

24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If for no other reason, I hope it’s not a total bust because schools and businesses are so reactive to the last event that I don’t want them to overcorrect the wrong way after all these early dismissals and closings. Then we get a slight risk in May and nobody does anything and there’s some bad results.

My wife had to go to Hanover MD this morning for Maryland department of emergency management activating from 10 - 10 today. She has to sit in a building with a bunch of emergency management people all day waiting for something to happen,she took a cot in case she has to spend the night there, i'm hoping she gets to come home early otherwise it's Popeyes for dinner. 

[baldereagle]

25 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Every year we have the ethics debate. I can't speak for others - but I am not "rooting for severe storms" in the damage sense. I like interesting weather - and I/we/us have no control over it. If it's going to be a substantial severe day, I am going to track it with enthusiasm. Nothing we say or do is going to change the outcome. 

 

Consider this - firefighters on a quiet shift will welcome a call coming in...    

The firemen I have known would never say anything like that. Not faulting your enthusiasm but you must not know any actual firefighters. I don’t believe they generally engage in thoughtless weenie wishing for fires to start.

[SnowenOutThere]

6 minutes ago, H2O said:

There are already a number of TORs spinning up down south and you can’t tell me they needed a lot of sun at 8am. 

Feels like the floor of today (assuming we get socked in with crapvection) still feels significant. 

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, baldereagle said:

The firemen I have known would never say anything like that. Not faulting your enthusiasm but you must not know any actual firefighters. I don’t believe they generally engage in thoughtless weenie wishing for fires to start.

I might have been misunderstood - but the firefighters I know yes, do not WISH for people's homes to catch fire - but on a dead quiet shift absolutely 100% get excited when a call comes in. I thought it was a good parallel because of course they are not hoping for somebody's livelihood to be destroyed or for lives to be lost...but if a fire were to break out - they want to be the ones responding. 

We have no control over the weather. Regardless - we can take the weather ethics debate to banter - I am 100% sure that zero people here are 'wishing' for people's homes to be destroyed is my point. But we are weather enthusiasts - we have NO CONTROL over it - we are going to track interesting weather with fascination and interest. It doesn't mean we are hoping for dead people. 

[konksw]

Snowstorms are deadly as well. Especially blizzards! Anyway it’s possible to be excited for interesting weather and hope everyone is safe at the same time. Otherwise might as well just move to San Diego. 

[yoda]

Still a hold with everything on the 1300z SPC OTLK... 15 tor/5 hail/ 60 wind

[wasnow215]

There are injuries, sadly sometimes deaths, and lots of property damage in all kinds of extreme weather. Including winter storms. Snowcrete had THOUSANDS of slip injuries enough to go to ER, just in RVA alone. Nobody "wants" any of that. So let's stop with the halo stuff and just talk about possible scenarios. 

[yoda]

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0732 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

   Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
   PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
   VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH
   CAROLINA......

   ...SUMMARY...
   Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by
   the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid
   Atlantic today.  There is potential that a couple of storms could
   become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes.

   ...Southeast States...
   An intense upper trough continues to deepen over the Mid MS Valley,
   with its associated surface cold front surging eastward across the
   Appalachians and into the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic.  An active line of
   thunderstorms is accompanying the front from GA into western
   SC/NC/VA.  Low-level winds are very strong along and ahead of these
   storms, encouraging the risk of numerous severe wind gusts and
   embedded QLCS tornadoes along the line.  Clusters of thunderstorms
   have been developing ahead of the line as well, in a moist and
   strongly sheared environment.  These storms will also pose a
   severe/tornado risk through the day as the primary large-scale
   ascent arrives.

   ...Mid Atlantic States into NY...
   Farther north, low-level moisture is a little more limited and CAPE
   values will be slightly lower.  Nevertheless, intense low and mid
   level wind fields will be present across this region as the cold
   front approaches from the west.  Thunderstorms are expected to
   strengthen through the late morning across west-central VA into
   central NY/PA and spread eastward to the coast by early evening. 
   Forecast soundings across this area show very large low-level shear
   values that will favor the risk of widespread damaging winds and
   several tornadoes.  Strong tornadoes will be possible - especially
   from MD southward where the greatest low-level moisture will be
   present.

   In the wake of the main convection, secondary cyclogenesis is
   forecast to occur late this afternoon along the cold front over
   VA/MD.  The initial storms will remove most of the low-level
   moisture/instability, but the extreme intensity of the low-level
   winds fields and large-scale forcing could result in a secondary
   risk of damaging winds from low-topped showers and thunderstorms
   after dark.  This threat could spread northeastward into eastern
   PA/NJ and perhaps southern New England.

   ..Hart/Lyons.. 03/16/2026

 

[TSSN+]

First watch coming just to the sw 

[yoda]

Tornado Watch coming soon for C VA into C NC

[Ephesians2]

About to get hit by this. Will report back. Some peeks of sun this morning. 

There is also clearly a good deal of wind shear. The breaks in the clouds reveal different layers moving in different directions. 

[dailylurker]

37 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Every year we have the ethics debate. I can't speak for others - but I am not "rooting for severe storms" in the damage sense. I like interesting weather - and I/we/us have no control over it. If it's going to be a substantial severe day, I am going to track it with enthusiasm. Nothing we say or do is going to change the outcome. 

 

Consider this - firefighters on a quiet shift will welcome a call coming in...

I'm hoping my truck gets picked up a little bit and humbles the crap out of me while I'm watching an EF3 ripping across an open field on the eastern shore or across the bay. Who's rooting for an urban nightmare storm? I drove down to LA Plata MD after the EF5 (Yes it was 100% an EF5.) I saw things I'd never imagined wind could do. I talked to a girl that was in shock the following day. She had a blank stare on her face and wouldn't talk. Her father said she was in shock and didn't know what happened. They brought her back to the taco bell she was working at when the monster struck. The entire place was gone except one little wall where the bar stools were bolted to the foundation. The tornado actually missed the building by 50 yards. It ripped the concrete off the ground and dug into the top soil where the direct patch was. I think the girls father told me that his daughter's co working was still missing at the time. (Later found dead.)

So.. that said. It was an absolutely beautiful tornado. I wish I was able to have seen it from a safe distance. I'd never wish for what happend to that young lady from the taco bell. 

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Tornado Watch coming soon for C VA into C NC

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0268.html

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0268
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0740 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of central Virginia into central North
   Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 161240Z - 161445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will
   gradually increase into parts of central North Carolina and Virginia
   through the morning into this afternoon. A watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...A remnant QLCS is emerging east of the Appalachians,
   where it is showing some early signs of re-intensification. Farther
   east, a disorganized band of thunderstorms is also evolving over
   parts of western VA into NC. While overall convective evolution is
   not clear, these storms will continue spreading eastward into a
   destabilizing air mass (around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Despite the
   somewhat limited buoyancy, strong low/deep-layer shear characterized
   by clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (see GSO 12Z sounding) will
   favor a mix of organized line segments and supercells, with a risk
   of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes (some potentially
   strong). A watch issuance is likely for this activity.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 03/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35018062 36058067 37938001 38327941 38387851 38157795
               37767769 37037785 35917834 35137889 34707944 34798025
               35018062 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

 

[Eskimo Joe]

the warm air is definitely surging into the region. Nanjemoy mesonet site already up to 67 degrees.

[LeesburgWx]

Sun poking through now in tysons

[weatherwiz]

Pretty wild environment as expected and there is already decent instability in place and satellite suggests that there will be at least partial breaks to allow for additional destabilization. What's really eye popping to me right now is 200-300 m2/s2 of effective storm-relative helicity and you have ~20 knots of sfc-2km winds which are nearly due easterly (inflow winds). The timing of the forcing out west looks more than favorable too. Mesoanalysis (using RAP background) gets 3km CAPE values >100 J/KG later this morning and early afternoon...pretty eye opening given the shear magnitudes. 

[yoda]

Tornado Watch up for the above MCD area... isolated significant gusts to 85mph in the watch

[SnowenOutThere]

Cod nexrad already has some sun filtering through past the line of storms near Roanoke. Wonder if they’re actually working to mix out the low level clouds. 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

If for no other reason, I hope it’s not a total bust because schools and businesses are so reactive to the last event that I don’t want them to overcorrect the wrong way after all these early dismissals and closings. Then we get a slight risk in May and nobody does anything and there’s some bad results.

This.  It’s my main worry believe it or not. I’m not a met, but I get super defensive when the public start shitting on yall and my God, the whining if this doesn’t happen will be insufferable. 

[somecallmetim]

30 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

otherwise it's Popeyes for dinner. 

Whereas I might view this as an upside.

[yoda]

No LWX CWA counties in the newly issued Tornado Watch 

[yoda]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 66
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   855 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Central North Carolina
     Central Virginia

   * Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 855 AM until
     200 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
     Widespread damaging winds expected with isolated significant
       gusts to 85 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of severe thunderstorms will sweep
   across the watch area through the morning hours, posing a risk of
   widespread damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.  Strong
   tornadoes are possible.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 50 miles east northeast of White
   Sulphur Springs WV to 35 miles south southwest of Southern Pines NC.
   For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
   outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

[Bob Chill]

13 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

About to get hit by this. Will report back. Some peeks of sun this morning. 

There is also clearly a good deal of wind shear. The breaks in the clouds reveal different layers moving in different directions. 

It's pretty nasty buy but not anything crazy. Biggest gusts during torrential rain and some decent CG. Power is still on lol

[yoda]

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0066.html