3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Moderate Risk) | Latest: 15% TOR, 60% WIND, 5% HAIL

[yoda]

Um... 80/60 tor probs in the watch 

>95/70 wind probs

[SnowenOutThere]

SPC mesoanalysis already shows 500 surface based cape in the watch zones with 250 stretching to Cvill and parts northward. 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Agree. We need the White House, several monuments, Kennedy center, and other iconic landmarks to get slabbed. 

Nah, I like those buildings. let’s leave it at that and move on.  
 

Now I wouldn’t mind it taking out the chipotle near me.  Mfers always skimping on the proteins like it’s coming out of their paychecks. But I digress. 

[mappy]

Can we be adults and move along from the ethics of rooting for weather and not wish for buildings to be slabbed

[ravensrule]

39 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

My wife had to go to Hanover MD this morning for Maryland department of emergency management activating from 10 - 10 today. She has to sit in a building with a bunch of emergency management people all day waiting for something to happen,she took a cot in case she has to spend the night there, i'm hoping she gets to come home early otherwise it's Popeyes for dinner. 

What are you going to order for the other thing you’re missing?. 

[stormtracker]

Yoda has had a microchip embedded in his brain that for years that receives watches, AFDs and sports scores directly the nanosecond they are issued.  This is why we keep him around. 

[Eskimo Joe]

40 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

My wife had to go to Hanover MD this morning for Maryland department of emergency management activating from 10 - 10 today. She has to sit in a building with a bunch of emergency management people all day waiting for something to happen,she took a cot in case she has to spend the night there, i'm hoping she gets to come home early otherwise it's Popeyes for dinner. 

I work with a lot of MDEM folks. I probably know them

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Can we be adults and move along from the ethics of rooting for weather and not wish for buildings to be slabbed

This too.  But Chipotle tho…

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Um... 80/60 tor probs in the watch 

>95/70 wind probs

That’s extremely close to a PDS criteria watch… maybe highest I’ve seen.

[yoda]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yoda has had a microchip embedded in his brain that for years that receives watches, AFDs and sports scores directly the nanosecond they are issued.  This is why we keep him around. 

The Force is with me.  And I'm a robot 

[wxdude64]

Just got tossed into a Tornado watch here!

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 66
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
855 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026

TORNADO WATCH 66 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

VAC005-009-011-017-019-023-029-031-037-067-083-089-141-143-161-
163-530-580-590-678-680-690-770-775-161800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0066.260316T1255Z-260316T1800Z/

VA
.    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGHANY            AMHERST             APPOMATTOX
BATH                 BEDFORD             BOTETOURT
BUCKINGHAM           CAMPBELL            CHARLOTTE
FRANKLIN             HALIFAX             HENRY
PATRICK              PITTSYLVANIA        ROANOKE
ROCKBRIDGE


VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BUENA VISTA          COVINGTON           DANVILLE
LEXINGTON            LYNCHBURG           MARTINSVILLE
ROANOKE              SALEM

[yoda]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

That’s extremely close to a PDS criteria watch… maybe highest I’ve seen.

For areas around here, I haven't seen higher probs that I recall

[Warm Nose]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This too.  But Chipotle tho…

Yes this should be in banter, but ...
Chipotle: The meal you experience twice.

[weatherwiz]

Pretty impressive sounding out of IAD tis morning. That's some serious shear in the lowest km and hell throughout the troposphere. Forecast CAPE may even be a bit underdone because it wouldn't take much breaks in the sun to boost the temp past the forecast. Even a bit of a residual EML in there. Hell of a lapse rate too up to the tropopause. You get deep convection in this environment and it's going to produce some destructive winds 

[H2O]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Nah, I like those buildings. let’s leave it at that and move on.  
 

Now I wouldn’t mind it taking out the chipotle near me.  Mfers always skimping on the proteins like it’s coming out of their paychecks. But I digress. 

I agree and want another chipotle slabbed.  Their rice was crunchy.  How does that even happen?  

 

65F and flurries

[George BM]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

The Force is with me.  And I'm a robot 

Honestly, if there was a MOD+ risk severe day and you didn't make an appearance here I would send out a BOLO for you to every agency around. 

[aldie 22]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I work with a lot of MDEM folks. I probably know them

Probably, my wife leads the Maryland First program

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Pretty impressive sounding out of IAD tis morning. That's some serious shear in the lowest km and hell throughout the troposphere. Forecast CAPE may even be a bit underdone because it wouldn't take much breaks in the sun to boost the temp past the forecast. Even a bit of a residual EML in there. Hell of a lapse rate too up to the tropopause. You get deep convection in this environment and it's going to produce some destructive winds 

CC: @wxmeddler Decent stuff.

[Bob Chill]

I'm rooting for EF3s that very gently disassemble things and then gently reassemble them somewhere else. 

[LeesburgWx]

I already have friends texting me asking why their phones don’t have any severe weather alerts. Public is going to go ham if this busts

[arlwx12]

Another listing of "DC-area" school dismissals:

 

Closings and Delays | Washington DC | wusa9.com

 

This includes Arlington (2 hours early) (which WJLA doesn't yet), DC public schools, and probably other additions (such as MD schools) that WJLA doesn't list yet.

((Still waiting on Loudoun County- I know someone with school kids there...))

[Eskimo Joe]

Storm just SW of Staunton looking like it's trying to spin a bit.

[yoda]

Dewpoints have reached the lower 60s at DCA and IAD as of 9am

[EstorilM]

49 minutes ago, H2O said:

There are already a number of TORs spinning up down south and you can’t tell me they needed a lot of sun at 8am. 

Exactly what I've been thinking, we've got a ton of shear, plenty of lift, and good moisture - we've seen plenty of historically significant weather events / tornadoes triggered by strong frontal systems with less than 1000j/kg (sometimes much less, initiation after dark, etc.) 

[AdamHLG]

Keeping an eye out for low overcast rotation in Towson. /s


.

[yoda]

Sun peeking out here now

[Kmlwx]

"Funny" to see warnings already about to depart the watch box down there heading N and E 

[mitchnick]

59 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

My wife had to go to Hanover MD this morning for Maryland department of emergency management activating from 10 - 10 today. She has to sit in a building with a bunch of emergency management people all day waiting for something to happen,she took a cot in case she has to spend the night there, i'm hoping she gets to come home early otherwise it's Popeyes for dinner. 

My office used to be in Hanover. In fact, Emergency Management may be in the same complex if I'm not mistaken. If it is the same complex, rest assured she'll have better choices in the area to eat than Popeye's.

[wxmeddler]

14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

CC: @wxmeddler Decent stuff.

65/63 is better than I thought where we would be this morning. Small break in the cirrus over North Carolina Piedmont headed our way, but otherwise pretty socked in.

[EstorilM]

25 minutes ago, yoda said:

No LWX CWA counties in the newly issued Tornado Watch 

They'll be waiting for a bit - if you look at the SPC MD's you can get a better idea - its still too far south for LWX to get into the action. It's possible within the hour or so I'd guess.