Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[MJO812]

Here comes the euro

[Jt17]

That’s what everyone want’s to see starting at 0z. Since the NAM is still outside its best under 48 hr range and it hasn’t had an update since 2017. Plus the OP GFS is still more amped and further west than the other operational guidance.
But I can see a meet in the middle scenario where we come in under than the OP GFS snowfall totals but higher than some of the other operational runs.  
We should have a good idea after the 0z to 12z guidance. Sometimes the max banding potential can sneak a little more west than the average of the guidance. 

There was more support than just American models was my point. But anyway, checkout EuroAI!


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[Santa Claus]

Just now, gravitylover said:

Nah, that never happens 

i’m not saying it’s wrong btw can we just not take it as an inevitability.  we’re all professionals here

[gravitylover]

1 minute ago, Santa Claus said:

i’m not saying it’s wrong btw can we just not take it as an inevitability.  we’re all professionals here

 

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

even if it is half wrong its still a MECS

Sarcasmometers need recalibration

[Nibor]

I've been avoiding saying it, but I think with that run of the euro there's no other way to say it. Euro is full on caving to the GFS.

 

[nycwinter]

if this storm pans out this will be one of the best winters we have had in a long time lots of snow and very cold temps.. 

[EasternLI]

Less confluence out ahead plus more phasing...

[Mail Man]

It's really a great sight to see.

[SACRUS]

2/20 18z EURO AI AIFS

 

 

 

 

[Nibor]

[Rjay]

HECS

[SACRUS]

2/20 18z EURZO AI AIFS Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23 - 24



Snow 10:1

[RU848789]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes

AIGFS 18Z snow map?  TIA.  And has there been a WN2 lately?  

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

Euro still no GFS it hits the cap and SE NE the hardest

[Rjay]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Euro still no GFS it hits the cap and SE NE the hardest

HECS

[TriPol]

It's time to start talking about a blizzard.

[BlizzLuv]

I have been away all day. I left with 45 pages of discussion this morning and came home to 86 pages! I was in PA and saw Winter Weather advisories on the highway electronic signs and wondered if chances improved.

 

[Mail Man]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Euro still no GFS it hits the cap and SE NE the hardest

Are you blind???

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Euro still no GFS it hits the cap and SE NE the hardest

Because it's not done trending yet. 

[JustinRP37]

The GFS does have a better track record with Nor’Easters. There has been enough GFS bashing here. The model really is not THAT bad. Among the big ones they all have their strengths. But so far seeing the other models come towards the GFS has been great. 

[Wxbear25]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Euro still no GFS it hits the cap and SE NE the hardest

This is certainly one of the takes in history

[dmillz25]

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Euro still no GFS it hits the cap and SE NE the hardest

Go to sleep bro

[Nibor]

AI Euro came west too.

[EastonSN+]

37 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Show that to the guy who wanted one non-US model to show an amped solution.


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That was me and the EURO AI looks great!!!!

[MJO812]

Euro is around a foot now.  Mecs , maybe hecs on the way .

[brooklynwx99]

enjoy the MECS, it's been a long time coming

[Jersey_Snowhole]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is around a foot now.  Mecs , maybe hecs on the way .

I don’t think the euro is done treading. I think it’s struggling with the ridge in the west 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

enjoy the HECS, it's been a long time coming

Fyp

[jm1220]

If you see 2 or 3 closed 500mb contours SE of LI, really nothing else to be said-those have been our top snowfall producing setups. Inland wouldn't do quite as well but maybe close because of less wind (wind can hamper ratios by breaking up the flakes) and excellent moisture transport in the CCB. And we all know these love to put a NW fronto band in there somewhere like West Milford which always seems to get hammered in these. 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Fyp

legit possibility. can't forecast more than 12" for the city as it stands this second but there is certainly 18-24" upside