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About LovintheWhiteFluff

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    Toms River, NJ
  1. TWC said 4 to 6 months to get electricity up for the entire island which doesn't have power now. Just that alone is destructive to everyday life for millions of people.
  2. meant 12z. fixed it. 0z is now. lol
  3. Yes, landfall should be around 12z.
  4. I think they will make it. Based on radar, we're 1.5 hrs from western eyewall crossing over eastern Dominica. Is recon going to get there before landfall? Yeah, it's about 485 miles to the Eastern side of Dominica from Curacao.
  5. GFS has Jose weakening to the point that the ridging can build back up. The Euro has it much stronger and gives Maria an exit lane. Just going to have to see what happens to Jose in the next 24 to 48 hours.
  6. The closer to the coast track and some sheer weaken Jose a lot more. Seems like the closer Jose can get to the coast, the greater Maria's chance.
  7. Florida and Georgia
  8. That was because of the track. It wound up going over Cuba. It was about to take off right before interacting with Cuba. Not saying it reaches 880s, but it had a shot at below 900 give the environment.
  9. 40N latitude and 70W longitude. It's usually talked about with snowstorms. Too far west of the benchmark and it's typically rain and sleet. Too far east and it misses you.
  10. I don't have the 6 hour panels, but it looks like the CoC goes over Tampa Bay. Is that right?
  11. Maybe I'm missing something, but I see no part of the eye on the mainland. It's pretty much in the exact position the Euro said it would be at this long/lat https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/cuba/sat-ir-bright-temperature-1079mu/20170909-0300z.html http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/07Holguin/hlgMAXw01a.gif
  12. The trough is a bit stronger at h5 which allows it to move a bit more NW resulting in a more eastern solution.
  13. The NAM should not be ignored when looking at tropical systems. Would I rely on it to make a prediction on where Irma is going to wind up? No. But it's a useful tool for looking at h5 in the short term. Where is the position of the ULL? Is it digging? How fast is it pulling out? How strong is the ridging? People have been posting the HMON for a week now. It's uncoupled. So why are they looking at it? Well it a hurricane model, but more importantly they are looking for consensus. The best mets look at every piece of the puzzle to come up with forecasts and predictions. No one should be tossing anything of use unless they get a model diagnostic discussion from NWS telling them there were issues with a model run. People (myself included) look at the Euro, GFS, HWRF, etc because they are your workhorses, but we need to look at everything to get a better picture. If not, what's the point? Lets just shut down the site, stop giving out met degrees, and show a blend of the Euro/GFS for every storm.
  14. At least we are at the point where 24 hours from now we should have a better idea of who is right. The paths the Euro and other models take will being to diverge.
  15. How does it look at 48 compared to 60 last run?