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nflwxman

Meteorologist
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About nflwxman

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KCHO
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Charlottesville, VA
  1. January 3-4 Storm Thread part II

    Where do you find the UKMET this early?
  2. Major Hurricane Irma

    NW, for sure. Extrapolated just for fun this looks like Charleston or Wilmington, NC.
  3. The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

    GFS and Euro upper air pattern at 192 are remarkably similar.
  4. Major Hurricane Irma

    Upper air pattern is really close to the GFS at 150. Good agreement this far out.
  5. The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

    Interesting to note a few "pure captures" in there. That's a new wrinkle in the GEFS even if it's not really plausible at this range.
  6. The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

    Really unprecedented MSLP agreement at Day 8 on GEFS. After that, the 3 camps still remain- Florida (30%), near SC to VA (20%), SNE (20%), and OTS (30%)
  7. The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

    Hard to extrapolate the 12z GEFS to equal a fish, but big storms can fight their way through ridges.
  8. The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

    Hah, well we'd all be yelling at eachother about analyzing any operational or ensemble at 200 hours out. However, the scale and scope of this is so much higher than a snowstorm, so I have little problem with the media and meteorologists in general mentioning the possibility. As depicted, i'm surprised the GFS did not slam this thing into South Carolina or Wallops. That ridge is pretty freakin stout.
  9. The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

    Seconding what Bob said. It's a titantic battle between a supercharged hurricane and an alpha N Atlantic ridge. A strong hurricane can certainly bully a ridge, but who blinks first?
  10. The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

    Yes, also the further south, the less interaction with synoptic steering features to the north. Hence why she crawls for 2 days in boiling hot gulf stream water.
  11. The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

    While this is just one op run 9 days in advance, it looks very similar to some of the earlier euro operationals (that sent Irma into the gulf). The trough is too weak to be recognized by the storm and the alpha N ATL ridge seems to be primary steering mechanism into the mid range (but she's moving quite slow at 192). The secondary ridge diving down from the upper midwest could actually block her from going OTS if progressive enough. The only take away I get from this run is that the trough is trending weaker the last 3 runs. OF NOTE: it is still early September. Any strongly modeled cold trough is probably overdone.
  12. Harvey - Main Thread

    While it's not heavy rain, even 0.25" an hour is probably enough to keep a few of these bayous from falling.
  13. Harvey - Main Thread

    Meanwhile, Hobby is seeing gusts over 50.
  14. Harvey - Main Thread

    Getting back to weather, it appears as if the GFS seconds the Nam's idea of a consistent convergence zone over Houston. GFS has 29" additional issues for downtown (versus 32" for the NAM)
  15. Harvey - Main Thread

    The current band would have to sit on top of Houston at the same strength for 30 hours for the NAM to verify (1" an hour rates). To put the rates in perspective.
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