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nflwxman

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Everything posted by nflwxman

  1. nflwxman
    All snow here in Riverdale (Bronx). Temperatures started a bit warm this morning, so i'm not expecting much stickage here outside of unpaved surfaces. Still 34/30.
  2. nflwxman
    Certainly more of a northward turn at the moment on radar - this is pretty close to what's currently modeled on the high res models, which brings 110 mph + gusts to downtown New Orleans.
  3. nflwxman
    I suppose this is the part where a smorgasbord of usual suspects suggest a short term hiatus disproves the seriousness of AGW. This was the same argument that played out in 2011-2014 and it didn't work out well last time for the naysayers. Please refer to the 2012 or 2013 global temperature thread if you want to read prior erroneous declarations from posters.
  4. nflwxman
    0.75" in Riverdale. Sticking to all surfaces and pouring snow.
  5. nflwxman
    Starting to accumulate on everything but roads here in Central Riverdale.
  6. nflwxman
    Although I am south, I'm noticing that too. It's still snowing moderately here even without obvious returns.
  7. nflwxman
    Still light to moderate snow in Riverdale. There is some formation of lighter bands coming from the SE that should keep us broadly in the game the next few hours.
  8. nflwxman
    Heavy snow in Riverdale - ~12.8" ONG. Flake size is noticeably larger. A pivot would be real nice right now.
  9. nflwxman
    The HRRR is a particularly low skill model with a meandering coastal low. For example, look at this 7 hour forecast of the current (10AM) radar. Not a very good representation of the mixing line and the intensity.
  10. nflwxman
    Bummer. That's pretty low regionally. Hopefully you make it up on the pivot band coming through in an hour or two. I would say we are a hair over 7" here.
  11. nflwxman
    I'm in the lower W 230s. It has just lightened up, but it's mostly been heavy or moderately heavy since about 7 AM. A few miles has made the difference in this storm thus far. Overnight we probably only got 2-3", while CPK was 5".
  12. nflwxman
    I'm in Riverdale. Definitely concur. Last night underperformed up here due to dry air, but this morning has more than made up for it.
  13. nflwxman
    Any one have observations from the New Brunswick area? The radar there is insane and the HRRR is spitting out 6" hour rates.
  14. nflwxman
    Need to specify the location. It's snowing in Long Branch ATM.
  15. nflwxman
    Yeah all the frames with "rain" are essentially <0.01" of QPF on the Euro. That's the typical frizzle you get after big storms, and I do expect it to happen here. Could it compress the pack? Sure. Another reason to make sure you measure frequently with this storm, as it's a long drawn out event.
  16. nflwxman
    All snow here in Riverdale. Coming down light to moderately now. I'd guess about 1/4" accumulated on non-pavement surfaces.
  17. nflwxman
    Yeah this is pretty wild. It's crawling at like 5 mph to the SE.
  18. nflwxman
    Honestly pretty good rates here in Riverdale with this final band. We may pull out 1-2" more. Nice surprise.
  19. nflwxman
    Same here in Riverdale. The wind is nuts right now.
  20. nflwxman
    9 PM - 5.7” in central Riverdale
  21. nflwxman
    I think the high is actually just a bit too far east. The CAD (at all levels) is favoring the NE portions of our viewing area.
  22. nflwxman
    Final Call: KTTN 3-6" KNYC 6-9" KJFK 4-7" KMMU 8-12" KHPN 10-14" This track historically does not give coastal sections high ratio snows. It's hard to see how mixing does not make it to the lower HV with a 700mb low track this north. The 3km NAM has a fairly significant warm layer at 700-800mb that, at this stage, is more often correct.
  23. nflwxman
    People tend to extrapolate trends linearly with the expectation that the next run will also have a 25 mile northwest jog. Fortunately for snow lovers in our area, that is not how modeling has ever worked. Looks like a significant storm for everyone north of Trenton. This "game over" stuff is bizarre.
  24. nflwxman
    I don't think I've ever seen a dry slot location modeled correctly 40 hours before the a winter storm. If you see one modeled over your house on one of the mesos 12 hours before game time, then there may be cause to worry. These are very dynamic events laden with moisture.
  25. nflwxman
    Thanks for placing a map of less than 2% of the Earth's area in the Global Temperature thread. Super duper helpful.
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