2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[snowmagnet]

20 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

You should read that again.  You know the answer.  There's a choice, E.

I don’t think so at short-range. 

[BristowWx]

17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's a Miller B, in DC, in LA Nina, at the end of February. Those are heart breakers 9 out of 10 times, yet we're still going to get snow. Where do I sign?

Are we?  Couldn’t you see a scenario where the middle region gets left out? We start as rain storm explodes east and we get nothing

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

500mb progression on the GFS is actually similar to the HRRR/RAP/NAMNest/NAM in terms of when the height fields close off and their general placements through 12z Monday. The GFS doesn't have anything beyond 09z Monday unless you're at the coast and drifts quickly to the northeast to limit additional snowfall which other models carry. I think it's cutting that off too quickly, and it also doesn't have the leading edge further north into the NW zones and the north-central portion of the sub-forum as it migrates the heaviest further south towards Rt50 and SoMD. I feel the initial is better handled by the rest of guidance. 

ECMWF is the furthest east, weakest, and driest. Unless is scores a major coup there, it's underdoing things too much, even if it had the "right" idea of being a bit further east. 

I am forecasting now and I can tell you I will not be using much EC deterministic, but more its ensemble blends to help with the forecast. What you see for the official WPC forecast is mine, so that will be what I think. I'll share when it’s online. 

Second comment to say the gem’s evolution looked more like the cam’s a bit just a minute ago at 12z. It’s the best that model has looked at h5 to date. 

[WxUSAF]

I think this is a pretty good map, except there will be a narrow IVT jackpot zone somewhere in our area

 

 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

I think this is a pretty good map, except there will be a narrow IVT jackpot zone somewhere in our area

 

 

this is about my call to a T except a 5-8” swath somewhere in my area over to 81 from the IVT. 

[wasnow215]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

15z RAP keeps it rain for a while along I-95 while heavier rates change it to heavy snow in eastern MD/DE. Weird run. 

I've been paying attention to weather models since we could lol. I've never seen the RAP be correct so we're good there.

[mappy]

12 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I thought i did.  But on my phone it doesn't show locations.  But I'll update. 

I genuinely thought you moved and was happy for you to be out of the desert 

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

500mb progression on the GFS is actually similar to the HRRR/RAP/NAMNest/NAM in terms of when the height fields close off and their general placements through 12z Monday. The GFS doesn't have anything beyond 09z Monday unless you're at the coast and drifts quickly to the northeast to limit additional snowfall which other models carry. I think it's cutting that off too quickly, and it also doesn't have the leading edge further north into the NW zones and the north-central portion of the sub-forum as it migrates the heaviest further south towards Rt50 and SoMD. I feel the initial is better handled by the rest of guidance. 

ECMWF is the furthest east, weakest, and driest. Unless is scores a major coup there, it's underdoing things too much, even if it had the "right" idea of being a bit further east. 

I am forecasting now and I can tell you I will not be using much EC deterministic, but more its ensemble blends to help with the forecast. What you see for the official WPC forecast is mine, so that will be what I think. I'll share when its online. 

You have the job I (and probably half the forum) wanted. I mean who tf takes diffeq, calc3 and 3 sems of physics and goes into IT, smh lol. Hope you’re right…euro has been stubborn so far.

[fujiwara79]

so we currently have a -PNA and +NAO, and yet we have a 970mb low crawling up the coast with blizzard warnings in NYC.  When was the last time something like that happened?

[TowsonWeather]

20 minutes ago, 87storms said:

It caught onto the idea of the coastal first but the euro has barely budged either once it latched on, and is the best model. It’s foolish to think the gfs is right before the storm even starts.

The Euro has budged a TON. 
Honestly, what models have you been watching??

The GFS basically had this solution days ago - what it’s showing now is a slightly more eastern version of the same bomb cyclone it showed from several days ago. The Euro has been gradually continuing a shift of several hundred miles and a radically different synoptic evolution that it kept insisting on long after other models had started trending to the GFS.

Any attempt to portray the last several days of model output otherwise is pure gaslighting. 

(And I’m not saying the GFS is “right” before the storm starts - I’m not endorsing its current output verbatim at all. I’m simply stating facts about which model has clearly been DRAMATICALLY more correct about this storm’s evolution throughout this forecast cycle. That answer isn’t dependent on snow maps or snow depth, but on what has already happened with the way this system has evolved.)

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, fujiwara79 said:

so we currently have a -PNA and +NAO, and yet we have a 970mb low crawling up the coast with blizzard warnings in NYC.  When was the last time something like that happened?

Isn't there going to be a western ridge spike, aka +PNA?

[Fozz]

1 minute ago, fujiwara79 said:

so we currently have a -PNA and +NAO, and yet we have a 970mb low crawling up the coast with blizzard warnings in NYC.  When was the last time something like that happened?

Feb 2006 was a hostile pattern as far as I remember.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said:

so we currently have a -PNA and +NAO, and yet we have a 970mb low crawling up the coast with blizzard warnings in NYC.  When was the last time something like that happened?

It's actually not a big anomaly, because we have a 50/50 low and strong Gulf of Alaska 500mb low. NAO is technically positive, but there is ridging left over from the previous -NAO over the Hudson bay/E Canada, with a trough underneath of it. 500mb pattern close to us in latitude and longitude is pretty favorable. 

[baltosquid]

I think one could argue the h5 is a tick better on the UKMET. I think the soundings are better than the pivotal ptype suggests. Metros seem to be at 33F under heavy rates, feel like that would accumulate. Verbatim wetter for both metros.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I think dc getting more than 4-6 inches is getting more and more unlikely but this is a very dynamic system and I think sundown tomorrow could be very fun even if just for a few hours. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, baltosquid said:

I think one could argue the h5 is a tick better on the UKMET. I think the soundings are better than the pivotal ptype suggests. Metros seem to be at 33F under heavy rates, feel like that would accumulate. Verbatim wetter for both metros.

I know 6z h5 looked its best thus far, how’s it compared to that run? 

[fujiwara79]

Just now, cbmclean said:

Isn't tthere goign to be a western ridge spike, aka +PNA?

According to the CPC, we currently have a PNA of -1.5.  It doesn't show the PNA forecast going positive anytime soon.

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

The Euro has budged a TON. 
 

Honestly, what models have you been watching??

The GFS basically had this solution days ago - what it’s showing now is a slightly more eastern version of the same bomb cyclone it showed from several days ago. The Euro has been gradually continuing a shift of several hundred miles and a radically different synoptic evolution that it kept insisting on long after other models had started trending to the GFS.

 

Any attempt to portray the last several days of model output otherwise is pure gaslighting. 

I just think the “differences” we’re talking about are because of land vs ocean snow maps more so than the models being all that far apart. If this storm was a cutter we probably wouldn’t even notice it lol.

[LP08]

2 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said:

so we currently have a -PNA and +NAO, and yet we have a 970mb low crawling up the coast with blizzard warnings in NYC.  When was the last time something like that happened?

It’s a +pna and a decaying -nao into Hudson Bay.  Pretty standard storm setup. It’s just the loading pattern before could not get a fresh airmass 

[WxUSAF]

Nobody mentioned ggem?  Notable west jump vs 0z.  Very nice for most of our sub.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, fujiwara79 said:

According to the CPC, we currently have a PNA of -1.5.  It doesn't show the PNA forecast going positive anytime soon.

It's not that bad because shorter wavelengths give us a favorable H5 low in the Gulf of Alaska. Our biggest snowstorms historically have that -H5 anomaly

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Nobody mentioned ggem?  Notable west jump vs 0z.  Very nice for most of our sub.  

Just touched on it above, it’s best run thus far. H5 was a nice improvement. 

[fujiwara79]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's actually not a big anomaly, because we have a 50/50 low and strong Gulf of Alaska 500mb low. NAO is technically positive, but there is ridging left over from the previous -NAO over the Hudson bay/E Canada, with a trough underneath of it. 500mb pattern close to us in latitude and longitude is pretty favorable. 

Ah ok, thanks for the explanation!  Sounds like the teleconnection indices mask a lot of smaller-scale features and don't necessarily tell the whole story.

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

I know 6z h5 looked its best thus far, how’s it compared to that run? 

Tick deeper h5 and maybe a tick negative or the same. Surface low is pretty much the same.

[peribonca]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Nobody mentioned ggem?  Notable west jump vs 0z.  Very nice for most of our sub.  

Looks pretty similar to the NAM...

[DDweatherman]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Tick deeper h5 and maybe a tick negative or the same. Surface low is pretty much the same.

I’d roll the dice with that look…potent

[TJ]

Anyone have the clown map for GFS?

[psuhoffman]

I’m gonna NEED someone to promise me this isnt going to be another case where we spent a week tracking, got excited, convinced ourselves this might be different, then watch Philly get 20” while we get 3” of slop. I need that right now. 

[NorthArlington101]

I’m gonna NEED someone to promise me this isnt going to be another case where we spent a week tracking, got excited, convinced ourselves this might be different, then watch Philly get 20” while we get 3” of slop. I need that right now. 

You’ll get more than 3”. Some of us probably won’t

[Wonderdog]

19 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Are we?  Couldn’t you see a scenario where the middle region gets left out? We start as rain storm explodes east and we get nothing

My call is 2-4 for Gainesville Bristow with rapid melting.