Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[Scraff]

Well, at some point, one model is going to fold like a cheap pants tent.  

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

This could be the worse GFS fail I have ever witnessed.  3 days out and showing a blizzard and on Sunday we'll be dealing with snizzle. smh

The RGEM was worse a couple of years ago... the difference with this is... the GFS is not failing

[Terpeast]

Looks like we’ll have to wait until tomorrow 12z at least to get better consensus. Yet another can-kick. 

Unless you toss the gfs AND its ensembles, then maybe we’re getting closer to the right idea. Not sure I agree with the trough going neg tilt so fast given how the progressive flow has been. 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

This could be the worse GFS fail I have ever witnessed.  3 days out and showing a blizzard and on Sunday we'll be dealing with snizzle. smh

I'm with @Interstate, I'm charging up all my batteries for this bad boy. 

[LP08]

If you toggle the GFS and Euro at the early hours (36 below)  and you can see it even earlier than that they are already differnt with trof orientation due to  the wave in  SW Canada, that difference early on has downstream effects. 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like we’ll have to wait until tomorrow 12z at least to get better consensus. Yet another can-kick. 

Unless you toss the gfs AND its ensembles, then maybe we’re getting closer to the right idea. Not sure I agree with the trough going neg tilt so fast given how the progressive flow has been. 

So what I'm getting out of this is, you're saying there is still a chance. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

I'm with @Interstate, I'm charging up all my batteries for this bad boy. 

Don't forget to fill up on these.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z AI from the trough 

But what I don’t like is other than the gfs everything is IVT related and that feature is bleeding northeast across guidance which seems to be what usually happens. They are very rare down here. They more commonly end up impacting to our northeast. My fear is the coastal is a non thing and the IVT trends northeast and ends up a Philly thing and…well ya 

[NorthArlington101]

IVT gonna look okay on the Euro I think. Looks like DC gets .3” of precip when it should probably be snow 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

But what I don’t like is other than the gfs everything is IVT related and that feature is bleeding northeast across guidance which seems to be what usually happens. They are very rare down here. They more commonly end up impacting to our northeast. My fear is the coastal is a non thing and the IVT trends northeast and ends up a Philly thing and…well ya 

Don't fear it....just expect it. Some things never change.

[rjvanals]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

If you toggle the GFS and Euro at the early hours (36 below)  and you can see it even earlier than that they are already differnt with trof orientation due to  the wave in  SW Canada, that difference early on has downstream effects. 

Glad you noticed this as well since it's what caught my eye looking for how the storm evolved on both the GFS and EURO 

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, rjvanals said:

Glad you noticed this as well since it's what caught my eye looking for how the storm evolved on both the GFS and EURO 

so differences at only 36 hours between the 2 lead to an all tiem blizzard vs a couple inches, if we are lucky. Insane

[StormyClearweather]

I remember a storm not so long ago that the GFS showed as a blizzard in NC, and it was on an island. I think we know how that turned out. Any time a model is alone in showing an extreme solution, it's almost certainly not going to be right. Unless that solution is an extreme drought - then it's always right. 

I realize I'm stating the obvious, but I'm doing it as much for myself as anyone else, and I sure hope I'm wrong.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Don't fear it....just expect it. Some things never change.

not sure if we flipped the model output we would believe that either.  would anyone be comfortable with a Euro blizzard and GFS snizzle?  

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said:

I remember a storm not so long ago that the GFS showed as a blizzard in NC, and it was on an island. I think we know how that turned out. Any time a model is alone in showing an extreme solution, it's almost certainly not going to be right. Unless that solution is an extreme drought - then it's always right. 

I realize I'm stating the obvious, but I'm doing it as much for myself as anyone else, and I sure hope I'm wrong.

Yes but that was also like 4-5 days I believe

[wasnow215]

Regular Euro snow maps? Just want to compare to its other runs.

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

IVT gonna look okay on the Euro I think. Looks like DC gets .3” of precip when it should probably be snow 

Yeah, if you have appropriate expectations I think euro looks good. Norrisville jackpot @mappy!!

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

I remember a storm not so long ago that the GFS showed as a blizzard in NC, and it was on an island. I think we know how that turned out. Any time a model is alone in showing an extreme solution, it's almost certainly not going to be right. Unless that solution is an extreme drought - then it's always right. 

I realize I'm stating the obvious, but I'm doing it as much for myself as anyone else, and I sure hope I'm wrong.

Now's not the time for rational thinking. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, if you have appropriate expectations I think euro looks good. Norrisville jackpot @mappy!!

I expect 30".

[wasnow215]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

not sure if we flipped the model output we would believe that either.  would anyone be comfortable with a Euro blizzard and GFS snizzle?  

If anybody didn't believe it then they haven't been paying attention to the difference in the modeling the last couple years. GFS is getting worse year to year, European is at least staying the same

[rjvanals]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

so differences at only 36 hours between the 2 lead to an all tiem blizzard vs a couple inches, if we are lucky. Insane

There's going to be some convection today over the central US which once its resolved should give us a better idea of what happens downstream 

[WVclimo]

Euro actually lays down a slushy inch here before sunrise on Sunday.  That would only be my second snowfall of 1" or more this winter, so I'd take it.  Gone by noon though, like all but one snowfall this year.

[mitchnick]

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

not sure if we flipped the model output we would believe that either.  would anyone be comfortable with a Euro blizzard and GFS snizzle?  

JI has a sage saying....

[baltosquid]

This is not going to tilt, obviously. GFS consolidates those. Euro does not.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, arlwx12 said:

LWX still up in the air at 1029...

(snip)

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure tracking nearby brings a slight winter
storm threat to the forecast area this weekend, followed by colder
than normal temperatures early next week.

A high energy but low predictability pattern looms for late this
weekend. The pattern is forecast to be very amplified but in flux as
a deep upper-level low digs out of the Gulf of Alaska inducing a
downstream ridge-building event over the western U.S. This pattern
amplification in the vicinity of western North America comes with
low predictability due to data sparse regions over the North
Pacific. Meanwhile, a pair of downstream upper lows interact/merge
over Maritime Canada, with inherent low predictability with two
cutoff lows interacting.

If the upstream ridge-building event takes place a bit further west
near 120 W longitude on Saturday, downstream trough amplification
would be favorable for phasing over the mid MS Valley into the OH/TN
Valleys Saturday night. A subsequent low track hugging the coast
would become more likely in this scenario, aided by downstream
blocking and a potential source of cold air given the upper lows
over Maritime Canada and surface high pressure attempting to ridge
into northern New England.

There is an appearance of an inverted trough signature in a subset
of model guidance over the last couple cycles, given interaction
between a more amplified northern stream wave and a bit more distant
offshore southern stream low. This could factor into precipitation
amounts and placement.

The 00Z ensemble suites (European, GFS, Canadian, Euro AIFS) all now
have at least some snow across the area Sunday into Sunday night.
This continues the trend toward higher QPF/snow amounts in the last
3-4 model cycles. Still, the spread remains quite large with many
ensemble members indicating little to no snow, while others do show
significantly higher amounts.

There are several variables at play here that likely won`t be
resolved with much more clarity for another day or two. This will
determine the difference between a couple of strung out waves
passing through with little fanfare, a modestly impactful period of
snow showers, and a more significant wintry precip event.

Of note, the higher sun angle later in the season becomes a factor
especially for lower elevations if precip occurs during the day.
Cold air will also filtering into the region as the storm in
question approaches, rather than being locked-in beforehand, which
offers another layer of uncertainty in p-type.

Regardless of exactly how the details of the Sunday-Monday system
play out, another shot of below normal temperatures is favored for
early next week. Currently, high temperatures in the 40s (30s in the
mountains) with lows in the 20s (teens in the mountains) are
forecast through Tuesday night, with some midweek moderation
after.

(snip)

Honestly that talk like  models showing 0-30” and an admission that the best science just has no real idea and won’t .  I’m glad they admitted this .

[BristowWx]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

JI has a sage saying....

yeah and it always rings true.  we will know better on Sunday

[Cobalt]

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

unfortunately..

[wasnow215]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's beyond ridiculous the differences. Tomlinson had to go in Pittsburgh even though he was a staple there. GFS has to go too.

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

F it I’ll take it