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About michaelmantis

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Elgin, IL

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  1. Agreed here too... Wasn’t much but there are odd bits every few minutes with very strong gusts and trees go crazy...
  2. Main band passed. Wasn’t all that bad. Back end is much windier...
  3. Same here (about 15 miles East of you) looks like low clouds obscuring anything...
  4. Not liking this one as it is out there staking 35 miles from my house... The extended winds are very concerning.
  5. Missed this action to the north by about 40 miles. Saw some videos/audio with the constant thunder. Great storms for those who got them but much of that area in central IL didn't need more rain.
  6. LOT just updated the WSW for Chicago to reflect the following wording
  7. This data looks to be from the 3-4 AM model runs... How could they still be using it?!?!?
  8. Thanks for posting, was looking for that link! I can almost understand a lake-effect scenario (the 2016 situation) causing that huge spread in amounts but this storm in question here was not a "lake effect" storm for N IL (while it may have lake moisture influences). I have no meteorological background, just a big interest, so I'm not going to throw stones. But all of this needs to be publicly corrected by the afternoon updates as we are now close to 24 hours out and those who just watched the evening or morning news have no idea of the latest updates and in many cases huge snowfall numbers are still being publicized. All this being said, wouldn't it be something if with this winter this thing makes a last minute shift north after all the forecasts are updated this afternoon? Mother nature messing with everyone.
  9. LOTs update does not provide much insight into their thinking into how the amounts change over the area. They do mention a sharper cut off during the day on Tuesday near the IL/WI border but if any of the current models verify, there is no way this is even an advisory in the first few tier of counties in N IL right? My underlining below. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOT&issuedby=LOT&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
  10. Even you ALEK would have bet some money on those odds at a casino right? :-)
  11. Posting this (data from 4 AM it looks like) to see these totals drop off a cliff with the 3 PM update. Even the 10% probability map had 4+ inches north of I-88 all the way across the entire state. https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter
  12. I feel for you guys making these decisions. From a forecasting perspective (and academically for lack of a better word) knowing that someone within a 50-75 mile range is going to get a big snow means you hit the mark as a forecasting office but that doesn’t help the PR side of things for the person who was told they were going to get a “big” storm and ends up with what they perceive as nothing. Doesn’t help that there are now so many models that people have access to that start bringing attention (or hyping more likely) an “event” before all the data is there to make a reasonable forecast. Still need the forecast to be like Back to the Future 2 where Doc Brown says “too bad the postal service isn’t nearly as efficient as the weather service” as he counts down the end of a rainstorm to the second. :-)
  13. Second that... I'm not going to lose sleep tonight waiting for the next models overnight... With all of this uncertainty I don't see how LOT makes major changes until the 3 PM updates tomorrow...
  14. I feel you... For us this seems like the best shot of a biggie thus far this year... 24 hours will see where that wobble leads to the good snow...
  15. The cutoffs in N IL in the forecasts really make messaging storms like this tricky. A 25 mile change impacts a huge population area. I will say this is the best the "Probabilistic Snowfall Forecast" graphic has looked for me all winter, especially 36ish hours from the event... Fingers crossed... https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter