Jump to content

michaelmantis

Members
  • Content count

    69
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About michaelmantis

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLOT
  • Gender
    Not Telling
  • Location:
    Elgin, IL

Recent Profile Visitors

350 profile views
  1. michaelmantis

    Winter Storm - February 11-13, 2019

    Sounds like someone throwing BB's at the window. Does look like the snow is going to stay around and north of the IL/WI state line. So close to a decent accumulation. Wonder how conditions are going to be in the morning, I can't see how school buses will be able to get around at 6 AM in some of the rural roads of Kane County.
  2. michaelmantis

    Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

    Damn right... Just shoved another 1.5 inches or so and some nice flakes out there now... Had to get the end of the driveway shoveled for the 3rd time. (City of Elgin plows amazingly but I didn't want that to freeze up tonight with the temps crashing!!!)
  3. michaelmantis

    Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

    It's like grains of fine sand falling out here. I'm throwing in the towel and calling it a night. If I wake up to 3 inches in the morning I'll be surprised. The timing and blowing around is going to make travel horrendous in the AM so I don't fault my daughter's school being canceled.
  4. michaelmantis

    Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

    Wind slightly picking up a bit (ELGIN IL) a first very fine flakes started a few minutes ago...
  5. michaelmantis

    Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

    I am sure there are different schools of thought on this, but is there a point of diminishing returns with the increasing number of models out there? Not sure what that number is (or could also see the view of more data never hurts). Going back to someone’s post from a few hours ago, my total layman’s view is that “forecasting” risks becoming just “averaging the models” vs. intuition, climatology, and training.
  6. michaelmantis

    Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

    Ever think of a side career as a counselor/therapist? :-) Forecasts like this have to be hard for your office. People go to bed with one message and wake up with “reality” (either way it’s hard to be right on the nose...) Thanks for your posting, love the actual expert views and insight into thinking...
  7. michaelmantis

    Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

    Don’t post that cr*p here... ;-) Debbie downer type map right there for NE IL. Have a feeling people are going to wake up many places surprised (both with more and less snow than expected). Lots of variables here.
  8. michaelmantis

    Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

    One of the things that may make tomorrow AM miserable is any type of wind. It will compound the clearing of roads. Makes an “advisory level” snow a hugely impacting event. The timing also just could not be worse.
  9. michaelmantis

    Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

    “Warning” is 6 inches in 6 hours or 8 inches in 12 hours right? Wind impacts = Blizzard headlines correct? Believe we are supposed to get some wind with this but not enough to meet criteria? I’m right on the LOT 4-6/6-8 line and the timing of this is going to be awful for AM commute and school.
  10. michaelmantis

    Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

    We talking shoveling a driveway with a spoon south? ;-)
  11. michaelmantis

    Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

    Timing seems awful for commute/school start. Only saving grace is it will be overnight while many cars off road but with heavy rates and blowing not sure that will make any difference.
  12. michaelmantis

    Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

    That works for me... Probaby not enough around here to cancel school Monday. Wednesday (read the latest LOT AFD) May be another story with *temps* at -20 in the morning...
  13. michaelmantis

    Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

    With things as is, models have trended N and is that northward model movement pretty much as far as it will go? Just curious in the probabilities of this thing jumping 100 miles north (for example). My non meteorologist inclination is that in this environment (cold air in place, snow pack in IL and IA, etc) that there are better chances of this thing riding the temp gradient south than pushing more north where it is already cold? Model above is a nice hit for pretty much all of WI and MI. Damn that cutoff in N IL...
  14. michaelmantis

    Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

    Pack her up as “pack her up 18 inches is gone” or pack her up “it’s a dusting”? im good with a 3-6 “normal snow” around here :-)
  15. michaelmantis

    Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

    After lurking and occasionally posting on these threads for close to 7 years now, I admire the reality check you bring to all of us armchair forecasters who just model watch (saying that with myself included) and freak out about every shift! ;-)
×