Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Bc that storm was consistently shown on models for many days leading up to the event.  In this case you have every model trending towards the shitty gfs that no one trusted. 

Good point. Imagine the panic tomorrow if warnings go up for 12-18"+ 

[jdj5211]

Wow. And look at all of those west leaning lows. This may tuck even more.


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[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Tucked

Speechless 

[nycsnow]

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, [email protected] said:

Most dramatic favorable late shift since then?

Probably

[North and West]

Not as wet as you think (verbatim). 

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[NEG NAO]

Just now, jdj5211 said:

Wow. And look at all of those west leaning lows. This may tuck even more.


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most west of the benchmark

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i think that this is arguably even more impressive. this is 15 years later and the only model that really showed this being a legit hit inside of 5 days was the GFS and every model bowed down to it. literally like Tony wrote a script

Fair point. The euro never showed anything from this until yesterday evening.  That's actually crazy. 

[[email protected]]

Woo!!

[WXNewton]

Following from the southeast forum. True weather weenie here pulling for you guys! Heck I've been losing sleep on this one just as much as I would if NC was in the bullseye! GFS might bring this one home, sure looks like this one will be a fun one to ride out. I hope one day to catch a big Nor'Easter. I'll definitely stay tune to see some observations! Pumped up from a 650 miles away!! I will say the models struggled handing the phase and the ULL for our NC snowstorm a few weeks ago, it was about 36 hrs out before they had a good handle on it. RAP and HRRR was dead on under 12-16 hrs out.

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

and you can take a stroll down memory lane if you go back to the beginning of this forum here - all documented

I have several times

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Fair point. The euro never showed anything from this until yesterday evening.  That's actually crazy. 

does the Euro receive the same data as the GFS ? Or do they (Euro) gather their own data ?

[WestBabylonWeather]

On 2/19/2026 at 5:10 PM, WestBabylonWeather said:

Local news 12 met leaning towards gfs solution. 

Bill Korbel for the win

[Blizzardo]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Good point. Imagine the panic tomorrow if warnings go up for 12-18"+ 

They will slowly increase the totals. I can see 6-12 in the morning forecasts, but by tomorrow night, you might see 12 -18. Some are already saying 12+ on the Jersey shore... 

[Rjay]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

does the Euro receive the same data as the GFS ? Or do they gather their own data ?

Euro has a superior initialization scheme but they receive the same data as far as I know. 

[donsutherland1]

35 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

wow - I am only getting 4 - 8 inches now !

It seems that whomever made the map lost sight of the bigger picture in his/her obsession with the minor IVT. 

The map will be verified for major cities in each of the zones. I've listed them below and also included my initial estimates for comparison.

[East of the Parkway]

8 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

980 would be cat 1 territory 

[Blizzardo]

And yea Channel 4 was talking the big B word for you folks out on Eastern LI. 

[Snowman92]

Been saying it for 2 days now. It will trend another 50 - 100 miles NW tonight then tomorrow once the in range NAM shows the same it will be a wrap.

Whoever is saying only about 6 to 8 inches of snow needs to update their forecast within 12 hours. 

Should be an easy swath of 12-18 inches NW of where it currently shows it.

[WeatherGeek2025]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Probably

did i not say this was going to keep tucking!? I knew it! i think the tucking stops where the SREF is depicting 

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It seems that whomever made the map lost sight of the bigger picture in his/her obsession with the minor IVT. 

The map will be verified for major cities in each of the zones. I've listed them below and also included my initial estimates for comparison.

Thats a Steve D  . map - we will see at verification time 

[Rjay]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

did i not say this was going to keep tucking!? I knew it! i think the tucking stops where the SREF is depicting 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Blizzardo said:

And yea Channel 4 was talking the big B word for you folks out on Eastern LI. 

blizzard for NYC for sure! 

[MANDA]

5 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Bill Korbel for the win

Great Met. Conservative and level headed - no hype.  Good guy all around.  Know him from his days at WOR radio.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

did i not say this was going to keep tucking!? I knew it! i think the tucking stops where the SREF is depicting 

Well when you keep weening out over every storm eventually you'll be right. 

[Blizzardo]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

blizzard for NYC for sure! 

It's really difficult to get the sustained winds for the 3 hours but we will find out! Haha

[NorthShoreWx]

14 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

This is 2010 Boxing Day redux!

That would be a disappointment out here.

[Rmine1]

Starting to get concerned about the storm being too “tucked” for the immediate coast. We all know that may make at least a portion of the storm wet, not white

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Jt17 said:

There was more support than just American models was my point. But anyway, checkout EuroAI!


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Yeah, the Euro AI single meets in the middle between the GFS and other guidance. Has the 2” liquid line from MTP to Ocean county NJ.

If that verified exactly, then we could see one primary band further west from Monmouth out into Suffolk. So with the great lifting someone could potentially go 18”+.

Would like to see the other guidance come on board by 12z tomorrow to have confidence that some areas could reach those totals. But we don’t have to know for sure until the 12z runs tomorrow. 

[MJO812]

Just now, Rmine1 said:

Starting to get concerned about the storm being too “tucked” for the immediate coast. We all know that may make at least a portion of the storm wet, not white

Uh where?