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Rmine1

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  1. Waiting for “mixing along the coast”
  2. Local news starting to hedge themselves, “hit or miss”
  3. NWS Upton noting the east shifts in their AFD. I love the very last line LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... There remains the potential for a strong winter storm to impact the region from Friday night through Saturday night with heavy snow and strong winds. That being said, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty as all of the 12Z globals have shifted east with the low track as well as their ensembles. The 12Z NAM12 was the boldest with a farther west track and the potential for 1 to 2 ft of snow across much of the area. However, the 18Z NAM is an eye opener as it has shifted well east of the area with no measurable precipitation. This scenario seems unlikely at this time. Due to the large uncertainty and bouncing around of the guidance, we are running with a model blend approach. Should this eastward trend continue with subsequent runs, snowfall amounts will trend down. There is a fair amount of complexity to the upper air pattern as multiple pieces of energy upstream come into play with the development and phasing within the longwave trough that is carved out across the eastern seaboard by Friday night. Shortwave energy is tracking down from the Northwest Territories of Canada, the PAC NW, and even north of the Great Lakes. This interaction and where a cutoff low develops seems to be causing the large differences in the guidance. Once again, there is agreement overall in an eastward shift, but due to the complexity mentioned, overall confidence remains low with this forecast. Liquid equivalent amounts range from one-quarter to one-half across the western half of the forecast area (Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, NYC, SW CT), to around an inch across far eastern LI and southeast CT. This would produce warning level snows from the Hudson Valley and NYC metro east. Once again, confidence is low and this is likely not the final solution. Just to show that there is a wide range in the model guidance, snow probs at the 90th percentile have over 20 inches across eastern half of the area, while the 10th percentile has borderline advisory levels far easter areas. Bottom line, the goal posts are very wide at this time.
  4. No, luckily it’s close enough to be a game time decision
  5. Good, because I have travel plans to see my son Saturday up at school.
  6. Killing this for us? Killing how? Some snow!!? Some snow? Or nada? I respect your thoughts, hence why I asked
  7. Trends are not our friends. Famine taking the lead over feast. Oh the winter of ‘22
  8. Pray that “mixing issues” stays away, obviously for the immediate coast
  9. I’d be shocked if we see an inch, definitely not here in the tropics! Absolutely nothing sticking by me and the back edge is probably 2 hours away. Lost too much to rain unfortunately
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