Surprised that there isn’t more chatter about tonight into tomorrow if you follow the latest Upton disco
Deep low pres is looking increasingly likely for Sat, with the
models coming into agreement with the 12Z cycle.
The 12Z NAM has a 981 low over Cape Cod at 21Z Sat, the GFS a
980 low over Montauk at 18Z, and the ECMWF a 983 low near
Nantucket at 18Z.
These solns indicate rapid deepening invof the cwa on Sat, with
locally hvy rainfall thru at least the mrng, and increasing
winds thru the day. Although the exact track and intensity is
uncertain based on the model spread, peak wind gusts around 40
mph seem likely, particularly LI, and 1-2 inches of rain where
the main band sets up nw of the low.
The possibility exists for stronger winds gusting in excess of
50 mph if the model trends hold. Winds were increased above
model guidance in the grids. Peak winds over land may be
limited in the eve, especially inland, by the cooling bl. LI
should remain gusty due to the warm waters.