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WXNewton

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Everything posted by WXNewton

  1. I wouldn't say our chances are quickly dwindling, GEFS mean has went from just over 2" last night to over 4" at 12z today. I think this thing has a ways to go before it is written off for anyone.
  2. This^^ absolutely the best way to summarize things, state what we know and allow models to sort through these moving parts. Everything will become more clear tomorrow and tomorrow night. Also ICON looked to be more in the EURO, NAM camp.
  3. 18z GFS clearly backing up moisture towards the NW when trended several runs @ hr 78. Cannot post the GIF for some reason, but there is definitely more moisture each run. If that trend continues I would picture it to look similar to the Canadian and Euro.
  4. About 4" now in Newton, absolutely pouring right now. 22.8/21
  5. 30.8/21 in Newton, Snow sticking to the deck and house tops are white. Had a wind gust of 17 mph about 5 mins ago.
  6. Don't sleep now, this is what we have been waiting for!
  7. 33/22 Here in Newton, just stepped outside and wind has really picked up. Dropped 1.5 degrees in the past 30 mins. Radar returns look great to the south.
  8. I am in Newton too, I think that's a low call. That initial push should drop several inches according to the hrr, I would be shocked if we changed that quick. That's some heavy moisture coming and we could easily pick up that amount in 1-2 hours. Hoping for a few more inches than forecasted above^
  9. Through the Catawba Valley this map doesn't even come close to matching the liquid equivalent that most models are showing. His freezing rain map only has .05"-.15" of freezing rain. This would only capture about .5-.75 inches of precip falling to match these totals.
  10. Most models seem to be dropping anywhere from 1.25-1.5" of precip across much of the piedmont to the mountains. Most of this falling in the low-mid 20s will make for a travel nightmare regardless on whether the precip is all Snow, Sleet, or Freezing Rain. It's been a long time since we've seen a wedge this stout and having precip amounts being modeled at well over an inch. I think this thing means business and I am looking forward to watching it all unfold from just a pure weather enthusiast's perspective.
  11. 40/28 in Newton, 4-7 mph wind out of the NE
  12. Several models seem to be picking up on a potential finger of moisture developing Saturday morning and throughout the day. I think that's something to keep an eye on, usually these big storms have that feature a half day or so before the main event. Would also keep Saturday's high temps on the lower side.
  13. I've seen the GFS OP do this many times in the 3-4 day range where it wants to run the low right through the heart of the wedge. I believe like many times before as we get closer it will correct this and show more of a smoother rotation down and round the bottom boundary of the wedge as depicted by the Euro/EPS. Also I expect the Nam to show some funky outputs over the next day or two. I would stick with Ensembles at this point and would recommend using caution when taking any OP run for face value, especially when the low pressure placement and movement doesn't seem realistic.
  14. Good 8" now in Foscoe, turnover happened about 5:15.
  15. Guessing 3.5-4" in Foscoe. Probably 2-3" fell in the past hour.
  16. Staying in Foscoe, started ripping fat flakes about 5:15.
  17. 12z Para GFS trying to bring the goods to western NC
  18. Absolutely pouring sleet here out of that heaviest band in Catawba County. Some fat flakes mixed in too.
  19. Nice CAD sig on 12z Euro but just not showing much cold. That low above Minnesota looks like its really hurting the cold air from being pulled into the system. This thing will jump around for a couple of days but at least the storm still there.
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