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WXNewton

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Everything posted by WXNewton

  1. WXNewton
    GEFS is trending a little further north each run.
  2. WXNewton
    2003 Jan storm kind of did this, had a precip maxima Foothills, NW Piedmont and then another precip maxima right along the coast.
  3. WXNewton
    00z AI GFS trending west each run...Here's the last 6 runs.
  4. WXNewton
    The GFS is really expanding the precip shield to the NW and putting more and more moisture west each run. Here's the last 6 runs, not sure where it will stop.
  5. WXNewton
    ICON ENS are a little wetter and don't agree with the OP for the most part.
  6. WXNewton
    Also that was more of a Sunday storm, so in theory we've already made it closer on this one.
  7. WXNewton
    Yes was in Dec. I remember seeing the red screen on TWC and being in 12-18" never saw a flake.
  8. WXNewton
    Euro is going to be a much better run, increasing totals 3 runs in a row now.
  9. WXNewton
    Totally agree! this is where the lee-side enhancement could really take off.
  10. WXNewton
    Latest NWS model blend...
  11. WXNewton
    GFS ENS trended over the last 4 runs. Factor these totals at 15:1 and from the mtns to the coast is 6"-12"
  12. WXNewton
    According to this, precip was definitely enhanced in western NC when compared to 6z. Very interesting to see how this plays out, but it kind of did like the Euro, 12z looked a tad better than 6z.
  13. WXNewton
    Factoring in 15:1 ratios or 18:1 it was a state wide 6-9" snowfall.
  14. WXNewton
    I would necessarily call this a trend that it shifted East, my take on it is the precip just wasn't as heavy as 6z looks more like a wobble to me and with potential ratios being higher this run was a significant snowstorm per NC standards for the whole state. Here are the last 4 runs and I like where we stand, let's see what Ensembles say.
  15. WXNewton
    I would take the UKMET with a grain of salt, it shifted several hundred miles back and forth last storm in 2-3 runs. Players are on the field and this thing has legs with some ensemble support. Def, going to take another day or two to see how everything comes into alignment.
  16. WXNewton
    I think this will come down to some of the mesoscale models with-in the 12-36 hr timeframe before we really know the dynamics of the ULL. Globals are going to paint a broad path but the hi-res models will hopefully nail any enhancement starting on the lee-side. Long ways to go with many solutions still on the table.
  17. WXNewton
    00z Euro kuchera map...
  18. WXNewton
    As long as we don't have to go for a hailmary on 4th and 15 with 10 seconds to go!
  19. WXNewton
    So basically 6-12" from Murphy to Manteo!
  20. WXNewton
    Only change really was a tad less in extreme SW-NC and extreme western SC
  21. WXNewton
    Hope we can score at least a field goal!
  22. WXNewton
    Looks temps in the upper teens for most. I was figuring 18:1?
  23. WXNewton
    That looks really close to lunchtime run.
  24. WXNewton
    Can you post individual panels?
  25. WXNewton
    18z AI Euro looks really close to 12z, just a hair east. Ratios would be about 15:1 with the temps being modeled. So these totals would be a couple inches more.
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