WXNewton

Looking at the EPS since last Thursday, the position of the low pressure system over the Gulf Coast hasn't really changed faster or slower.

The trend for now suggests that 12z might be even quicker and less moisture, but once that stops I think starting on Monday evening and the last 24 hrs of runs before the storm we will see everything correct back. Just my opinion, I have cliff dived many times over the years in the 48-90 hr timeframe just to come back in at the last minute. If I remember correctly the Dec storm of 2018 did this same thing and the first model to latch on to a bigger storm in the short range was the HRRR. It's not ideal to see this happening and it wrecks your emotions but I do believe more changes are coming for the worse and then better again.

EPS is going to be weaker and more strung out. We go through this volatility with the models every time when we are about 4 days from the storm. I suspected this was coming, but also don't believe it will be the end result either.

Yeah cut totals quite a bit back west, it looked like precip was lighter at first and storm moved through a little quicker.

18z to 00z

Honestly, the CMC was a pretty big increase for more folks than what it appears. The lee side of the mtns dropped the most and most totals increased from Catawba County east.

Here's the latest blend of all the models.

Was just getting ready to mention they improved slightly over previous runs. Also, it seems like every winter storm possibility has some model inconsistencies in this 4-5 day range. Weaker and more strung out, but as it gets closer they always seem to trend back NW and little stronger. The overall picture has not changed, there is energy coming and there is cold air available. Time will tell how it plays out, but going all in on one or two runs right now or throwing in the towel makes no sense when there are still so many solutions on the table.

4" or greater in a 24 hr period on the latest SREF. If this would continue, it seems to be on a great trajectory for a lot of NC and VA.

18z EPS... Tick back from lunchtime but still solid looking.

no words needed...

It gets exciting when the models start to roll and you don't have to wait long to see the new results.

ICON with subtle shift south with the snow/sleet.

I find this pretty interesting between the Euro and GFS, here are the 48 hr trends for both models. The Euro has been most consistent with the placement of the gulf low and overall orientation of the moisture. You can clearly see the GFS is trending to show a very similar look to what the Euro has shown for days. Both models are also expanding the precip shield more and more each run while also depicting a colder and more expansive side to the wintry precip. I think these two models will be showing very similar solutions with in the next three cycles. Right now the GFS is going towards the EURO.

I'll take panel 15 and let the next 5 winters ride.

Just think...by tomorrow morning at this time we can all start to get nam'ed together.

Looks like Euro ensembles at this point is our best bet. I feel like in these situations is going to be hard to avoid some sleet and possibly some freezing rain here. Even the big storm of December of 2009, I had 8 to 9" in my area with sleet and freezing rain, while Lenoir up to the mountains just got crushed with snow. I think all in all it could be a major winter storm that shows a little bit of everything for us. I do like seeing the ensembles get a little bit colder each run. I think we will see precipitation expand further north and west as we get closer to the storm, not necessarily A further north track just a depiction of moisture expanding further north and west and if we can combine that with colder temperatures each run we should transition more to a snow and sleet storm.

Nice uptick from this evenings 18z. Trended colder and more moisture this run. Seems like the OP is more amped than the EPS and warmer, maybe signs that it could adjust some to colder and more snow to meet the ENS.

FRAM totals on euro. If this plays out like this, I guess it would be some of the most significant ice accumulations since 02.

UKMET is major East Coast winter storm.

Def. more interaction this run, you can see the energy over the gulf digging more and going more towards neutral. A few more steps like that and i think its headed towards something good. Even if this run went past 120, I believe WNC was about to show more widespread snow. You can see the moisture on the last frame seems to build and expand more north out of SC vs pulling due east.

If anything it's gotten a little better each run.

I just came from Catawba County to Ashe County, starting at about 2,000 ft out of Wilkes County into Watauga County the amount of tree damage all the way up to the Blue Ridge parkway is extensive. I expected to see some damage, but not this bad.