WXNewton
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Everything posted by WXNewton
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It was north of the op, but it actually was a little further south and weaker than 6z GEFS.
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12Z GEFS is North of OP, pretty much lock and step with 6z GEFS, maybe a hair or two south and colder, but overall is a big hit. It's also extending back and trying to keep a weak feed all the way back to southern California. Kinda of puts NC in what I used to say was the firehose of precip. Definitely trending towards a slower longer lasting event.
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Let's see what ensembles show, I feel like they will not be as suppressed and we will be in a good spot. I have study the GFS op many times over the years and it always seems to weaken the precip field through hrs 80-114 timeframe.
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12z Canadian still trying to run up into the wedge, major ice event verbatim, but it has also corrected south 3 runs in a row now.
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Well we all blew through page 22 quickly!
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GFS takes the wedge all the way to the Panhandle almost...Unbelievable!
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I would not say the ICON is North, it actually trended south from its run this morning which only went to hr 120, when compared to hr 114 on most current run. Also has been all over the place over the past 4 runs or so, I'd take the ICON with a grain of salt at this point until we get additional info.
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I have black circles around my eyes already, it's hard to explain to others why we do what we do, it's an addiction for sure.
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00z Euro AI temps through out the heart of the precip.
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Plenty of moisture too, most of the storm my backyard is between 17-22 degrees, with nearly an 1.5" QPF being modeled.
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Even if it is some sleet and zr, I am speaking for the fact that the severity of the situation is increasing the totals of something frozen when compared to the previous run. I am not just focusing on snow, I think it's important to see that moisture output is increasing while temps remain steady in the low 20s or teens and that this is becoming more likely a potentially dangerous storm. As modeled something we haven't seen in many years.
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00z AI GFS is slightly further south than previous run, heavier moisture and a tad colder, looks to be a significant winter storm.
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00z GEFS snow depth mean.
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Best mean so far on GEFS, colder this run and heavier moisture, not sure a see much of a trend north, just stronger storm this run. With a look like this we can't ask for more.
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00z GEFS is going to be an insane mean, seems to be running a tad colder, more moisture and totals are bumping up even more than 18z. Going to be amazing for many.
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84hr NAM was getting pumped! There it is someone had to say it!
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18z AI Euro south and colder than 12z again
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18z GEFS mean depth...
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GEFS is going to be a bit north of OP, but further south than 12z GEFS. Heaviest totals appear to be lining up right down I40 from West to East. Also seems to be step for step with 12z EPS. Regardless, this run is going to be big for many!
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Does anyone have snow maps for 18z AI GFS? Looks like it had a stout second piece of energy.
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The ICON ensembles do not support that far of a south jog on the OP, they are very much in line with euro and GFS. Verbatim, continues the theme of a significant winter storm.
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If you told the average person what we are witnessing on the models today they would think we are absolutely on drugs, this is like watching a potentially historic event take shape and we are the keepers of the news.
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Temps to go with it...It's hard to put much stock into it seeing how much it shifted since last night though. GFS seems way more consistent so far. That would not be good either way throwing that type of precip over low 20 surface temps in the Piedmont.
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12z UKMET much further south than 0z, still tries to run low into heart of the CAD, regardless of trying to do that, it's an absolute mess of a storm across much of NC and would be bad in many ways!
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I was just getting ready to say that coming in further south this run.
