WXNewton
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Everything posted by WXNewton
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That would not be good, if we get mostly freezing rain! Actually this would be worst case scenario.
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The UKMET is UGLY and it ain't got no alibi...plows straight through the wedge, we are one step away from a squall line.
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18z NAM says, I am going start a pep rally Friday morning for the big game on Saturday. Like what the heck is the NAM thinking??
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12z Euro kuchera
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We always have to thread the needle. I do feel like we will see a flatter weaker system over the next day or two and then, I feel like on Thursday models beef back up again. Right now you have to stick with ensembles and the GEFS have not moved much from each other the past few runs. Ens over OP for the next two days.
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I can't remember a storm here in HKY where we were in the upper teens with zr my suspicion would be mostly IP over ZR, but again depends on where you are.
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Yeah that's because it was a little weaker with precip amounts, moisture was not as heavy during the heart of the storm as 6z. Verbatim it was a tad weaker and south.
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It was north of the op, but it actually was a little further south and weaker than 6z GEFS.
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12Z GEFS is North of OP, pretty much lock and step with 6z GEFS, maybe a hair or two south and colder, but overall is a big hit. It's also extending back and trying to keep a weak feed all the way back to southern California. Kinda of puts NC in what I used to say was the firehose of precip. Definitely trending towards a slower longer lasting event.
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Let's see what ensembles show, I feel like they will not be as suppressed and we will be in a good spot. I have study the GFS op many times over the years and it always seems to weaken the precip field through hrs 80-114 timeframe.
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12z Canadian still trying to run up into the wedge, major ice event verbatim, but it has also corrected south 3 runs in a row now.
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Well we all blew through page 22 quickly!
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GFS takes the wedge all the way to the Panhandle almost...Unbelievable!
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I would not say the ICON is North, it actually trended south from its run this morning which only went to hr 120, when compared to hr 114 on most current run. Also has been all over the place over the past 4 runs or so, I'd take the ICON with a grain of salt at this point until we get additional info.
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I have black circles around my eyes already, it's hard to explain to others why we do what we do, it's an addiction for sure.
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00z Euro AI temps through out the heart of the precip.
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Plenty of moisture too, most of the storm my backyard is between 17-22 degrees, with nearly an 1.5" QPF being modeled.
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Even if it is some sleet and zr, I am speaking for the fact that the severity of the situation is increasing the totals of something frozen when compared to the previous run. I am not just focusing on snow, I think it's important to see that moisture output is increasing while temps remain steady in the low 20s or teens and that this is becoming more likely a potentially dangerous storm. As modeled something we haven't seen in many years.
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00z AI GFS is slightly further south than previous run, heavier moisture and a tad colder, looks to be a significant winter storm.
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00z GEFS snow depth mean.
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Best mean so far on GEFS, colder this run and heavier moisture, not sure a see much of a trend north, just stronger storm this run. With a look like this we can't ask for more.
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00z GEFS is going to be an insane mean, seems to be running a tad colder, more moisture and totals are bumping up even more than 18z. Going to be amazing for many.
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84hr NAM was getting pumped! There it is someone had to say it!
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18z AI Euro south and colder than 12z again
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18z GEFS mean depth...
