WXNewton

The GFS has two waves of low pressure here, can someone with more knowledge than me explain how this might be effecting the overall moisture transport to the north and development of the storm vs a single low pressure?

Canadian backs totals up further NW than 12z. The biggest difference between the Canadian and the GFS is the Canadian seems to have more separation from the confluence in the Atlantic and digs the SW deeper and more neutral. It's seems like the GFS is being strung along with the energy in front of it and can't dig as much and basically is more flat and gets pulled along to the east. Also the GFS never fully separates from the energy in the southern Pacific which also keeps it from digging more. The GFS also has two waves of low pressure which almost looks like a Miller B ish type transfer into the Atlantic where as the Canadian seems to be more of a Miller A single low tracking across the gulf.

I mentioned this in the other discussion topic, there was a storm in mid-February in 2010 that reminds me so much of this and the jet orientation is very similar. I remember all the local news channels and national Weather service keeping it very far south of us, and then once it got into the NAM time frame it was the first to show moisture coming up into North Carolina. We went from a non advisory to a winter weather advisory the day of the storm for 1 to 2 and by the time it was over we had five to six inches. Which 2009 and 10 winter we couldn't miss a snowstorm. This is the lunch time Canadian and the storm from Feb 2010

We had a storm across NC in Feb of 2010 that was supposed to stay mostly south of the area and mainly a coastal storm, then the short range models all brought it north at the last min and most of the state had a decent snow, not sure how it compares to this one so far but it seems to have some similarities. This is the storm... https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=506 Jet Stream Winds looks pretty similar to what is being modeled on the Canadian vs the Feb 12 2010 storm.

Running now

Light snow back into the NW piedmont and southern foothills this run...

One more tick a little further north again...

GFS trends more north with precip shield so far...

Just look at the trend on the GFS on this weekends storm over the past 42 hrs of model runs it's literally went from a non existent storm to moisture almost into Canada. Not saying this is what we will see next week, but at the time we have left I wouldn't rule out a significant run with moisture further north and west. I understand that the air is different and the cold press may keep the track further south, but I also recognize that these things can change significantly in just a two day period of time.

06z and 00z, couple more moves like that and everyone might be happy.

I would say the most positive trend on the GFS is how the shortwave is trending over the last few runs. Definitely sharper and going more neutral, if this continues I would think the angle and moisture transport over the Gulf should become more expansive over the next few runs.

Pretty big shift to NW with precip.

Dig baby dig...

Headed up to the MTN cabin today, it's been a very long time since I've seen the New River frozen over like this.

Bad

UK was a late bloomer, but it has some hefty totals for central and ENC, Coastal SC and GA

GFS Ens. ends up a little more sheared out than 18z and overall not as good. That was a step in the wrong direction.

GFS Ens are already showing way more moisture and accumulations in TX vs the OP run, so it looks like once again ensembles will not be supporting the OP solution.

Agreed, I think we are going to see this storm evolve and line up very closely to where ensembles have been showing the heaviest all along. I am betting the whole state gets in the game but heavier totals seem to be aligning from Central to Eastern NC. Also it seems like moisture can be more expansive on real time radar than compared to the models. I am hoping everyone scores, but at the same time there might be a nasty cutoff line that a few of us have to face.

Canadian shifting heavier totals towards the south and east. Really lines up better with where Euro ens. and GFS Ens. have been showing heavier amounts.

Yeah it is a little bit, wave seems a little flatter for sure, definitely better than GFS, I mean worlds apart really. Still looks like it's going to be a decent hit.

Canadian looks like it's going to be coming more amped than 12z for first wave. Definitely way different look than GFS. Out to hr 132, snow breaking out in TX,AR, Ok

Maybe so, but verbatim temps in WNC are around 20 degrees with moisture knocking on the door, I say that would cause a nasty situation on the roads. However this is over a week out and it will change a dozen times in the next few days. Surely we will see some consistency by the weekend at least on the first system.

Incoming on second storm...

Give it until about Friday and it'll be back...As long as ensembles still show something, hope is not lost.