WXNewton
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Everything posted by WXNewton
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UK was a late bloomer, but it has some hefty totals for central and ENC, Coastal SC and GA
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GFS Ens. ends up a little more sheared out than 18z and overall not as good. That was a step in the wrong direction.
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GFS Ens are already showing way more moisture and accumulations in TX vs the OP run, so it looks like once again ensembles will not be supporting the OP solution.
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Agreed, I think we are going to see this storm evolve and line up very closely to where ensembles have been showing the heaviest all along. I am betting the whole state gets in the game but heavier totals seem to be aligning from Central to Eastern NC. Also it seems like moisture can be more expansive on real time radar than compared to the models. I am hoping everyone scores, but at the same time there might be a nasty cutoff line that a few of us have to face.
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Canadian shifting heavier totals towards the south and east. Really lines up better with where Euro ens. and GFS Ens. have been showing heavier amounts.
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Yeah it is a little bit, wave seems a little flatter for sure, definitely better than GFS, I mean worlds apart really. Still looks like it's going to be a decent hit.
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Canadian looks like it's going to be coming more amped than 12z for first wave. Definitely way different look than GFS. Out to hr 132, snow breaking out in TX,AR, Ok
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Maybe so, but verbatim temps in WNC are around 20 degrees with moisture knocking on the door, I say that would cause a nasty situation on the roads. However this is over a week out and it will change a dozen times in the next few days. Surely we will see some consistency by the weekend at least on the first system.
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Incoming on second storm...
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Give it until about Friday and it'll be back...As long as ensembles still show something, hope is not lost.
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I feel like in the last storm euro ens. matched up very closely to the end results here in Catawba County and they did not jump back and forth a whole lot leading up to the storm. For 3-5 days in a row they showed us anywhere from 1.8"-2.5" and that's about exactly what we got. I would say they were by far more consistent and accurate to the end result than any other solutions that were on the table.
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Best run yet on Euro Ens, here's the last 4 runs.
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So 12z Canadian crushes Western NC and has a catastrophic ice storm in deep south, UK is more of a central and ENC storm, Euro hits parts of western NC with a finger of snow to start but much heavier in ENC and GFS is suppressed and depressed. So all and all the storm is there but timing, track and evolution of the low and how strong the push of arctic air is still anyone's guess. Blend ensembles and we continue to watch for trends heading into the weekend.
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Similar to Canadian and GFS has second wave...Oh boy so much energy on the map I think this will be a few interesting days of model watching ahead.
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Euro def. more north and west this run, but still slides under most of us while the coast gets more moisture.
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UK is a big hit for central and ENC... A blend of that and the Canadian would be nice for everyone on the board.
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The one big thing I've noticed is the moisture seems to blossom on the GFS runs when the high pressure is sitting over West Virginia,Virginia, Pennsylvania area, but on runs where the high pressure is moving down through Kansas, Oklahoma area the low gets shunted into the gulf. It will be interesting to see where the high pressure sets up overhead and how much the low can amplify.
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That's all we can ask for at this point, at least the storm is still showing.
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Suppressed , see what ensembles say
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Euro trending colder at 850s, not much more and this might be something to track for foothills and definitely MTNs.
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Canadian also has a storm...
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Absolutely, that's the hardest part sometimes is when we get one, we are ready to track another one because we are still thirsty for more!
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That's true, trying to not get excited when you see something like that is hard to do. However, the energy being modeled is only like 6-7 days out from working it's way towards us.
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GFS Ens. Definitely have a storm signal at the end of the MLK Holiday. This is showing the 21st-24th timeframe.
