WXNewton
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Everything posted by WXNewton
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Looks like EPS should tick up even more or at least me close to last night, storm almost takes on a comma head look back in Western NC and E. TN. Looks like more phasing and good NW side to the overall pecip shield.
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Looks like GEFS is going to be juicer than 06z and maybe colder.
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The ICON and Canadian are really not that far off from each other, the ICON just seems to phase earlier for a bigger storm. Also, looks like the ICON keys more on the trailing energy than the Canadian. Seeing the Canadian further south and east at this stage in the game is probably a good thing, we know how that will go as it gets closer.
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12z CMC is a weird evolution, initial wave gets going further east with zr and sleet in CNC and ENC then second piece of energy over the gulf seems to fill in the NW side and becomes more of like an overrunning of moisture into the Western NC.
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Also, worth noting is how the 12z Canadian is trying to show some icy potential early Saturday morning Piedmont area and Foothills.
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I totally agree, mother nature knows when things are getting ready to change drastically. The animals have to prepare for survival purposes, it makes perfect sense that they can tell. During the January 11th storm I noticed a few days prior to the storm the squirrels and rabbits and birds everything was on the move. I might even watch the grocery stores, people do the same thing we rush and buy all the bread. Maybe that's the best indicator.
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Let's see if the old wives tale holds up for next week. Had several rounds of thunder and lightning last night about midnight, several people I've talked to this morning in person said it's going to snow within a week. I think it's funny how some folks predict their weather, we shall see.
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https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
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Looks like a good bump up.
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Looks like a good bump up.
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Had thunder and lightning here in Newton a few mins ago...34.5 degrees. Really shocked me, wasn't expecting that!
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GEFS is going to bump totals up nicely when compared to the previous run. Really wants to bring in a second storm, looks like a decent signal at this point.
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For what it is worth, the 18z Euro AI has the storm too. Looks cold enough for most of the state and has higher precip amounts further east than west. Also, does a transfer of moisture from the west to the east and leaves parts of the Piedmont area with a precip minimum.
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The trend on the RGEM shows it could be a little icy to start Saturday morning.
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CMC is a pretty significant winter storm. Lots of sleet and zr for most of NC and cold.
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Something to watch for Saturday morning is the trend on some of the short-range models are developing several hours of freezing rain all the way down into the Catawba Valley area, back into the MTNs. Here is the latest RGEM.
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Seems legit to me, goes right up I85!
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Here's some pictures of the damage up in Ashe County, in Fleetwood. Some of my neighbors took these about an hour ago. Looks like at least 1/2" on the trees.
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ICON has storm too. I think at this point the models are all in theory with each other on some type of winter storm. I guess at this range that's all we can hope for. I want complain about a little extra model watching for a few days!
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Looks like overall the EPS increased totals in NC for the 20th-22nd timeframe when compared to previous runs.
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Just dropped to 32.8, we are close!
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GFS and EURO Ensembles both showing a good signal around the 20th.
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MTN Cabin in Fleetwood is down to 29 already with a dp of 23 about 5 miles to the west of the BRP..
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I am over in Newton and just said the exact same thing. Out here in the country there are some temps already around 34.9-36.2. Most models have us around 40 right now.
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Temps even down in Catawba County right now are running anywhere from 34.9-37.2 on local weather stations. Most models have my area between 41-43 degrees right now. Not sure if that will convert to colder temps or not when the moisture arrives, but certainly colder than what it's supposed to be.
