WXNewton
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I can speak from experience here in the heart of Catawba County, MBY is typically one of the last to see the wedge go. I've seen us stay at 31.8 before and the parent High be several hundred mile off the NE coast and it's basically just an In-situ-CAD with freezing rain. Very tough to erode here in the Catawba Valley!
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6z GEFS reinforces the wedge a little more than 00z.
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I looked very closely at this and at the very end it actually has the freezing rain ever so slightly further south than 18z and temps a touch colder.
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Euro was almost identical to 18z, the heart of the CAD actually was a touch stronger and several locations ran about 1 degree colder through most of the precip. In MBY (Hickory) we stayed below freezing for 99% of the storm and zr totals were 1.71" and the FRAM est was 1.10".
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Clearly see the low trending North over time, when does it stop is the big question...
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I was just thinking about both of these storms as possible analogs. 94 had a huge temp drop the day of the storm. The high seem to be strengthening as it moved into the VT/NH area and it anchored in place. 96 brings back some scary memories for me, listening to the pines pop around the house for days and near zero after was no fun. We lost power for 8 days and the mattresses were frozen stiff by the time power was restored. During the 94 storm Neil Bonnet died at Daytona.
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The surface temps were running a few degrees colder than 12z for sure.
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15z SREFs have trended overall precip back south when compared to 9z. I have a feeling 18z runs will follow that move back south to some degree.
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I feel like this GIF should have some techno music to it.
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GEFS precip has really remained pretty solid and consistent in the same location over the past two days. It's either going to be consistently wrong or right lol.
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CMC seemed to have brought the wedge in stronger than 0z run. We know more times than not, that once we get into the 24 hr frame on a wedge setup like this the models tend to deepen it even more, do you agree with that thinking still?
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Looking over GFS and Canadian for HKY area GFS: Roughly 4-5 inches of snow 2-3" of IP and 1/4" of zr. Canadian: 4-5" of IP and 1/2" of zr.
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12z Canadian drives the wedge deeper than 0z and pushes sleet/fz rain further south this run during the heart of the precip.
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12z ICON temps throughout the storm.
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12z ICON is a tad north of 6z, major ice storm for all of NC
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I think what we will see is the GFS make very very small moves towards the Euro, and I think we will see the Euro make very very small moves back towards the GFS. Ultimately, I think we'll find something in between the two.
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I also get Feb 96 vibes from this especially with the extreme cold after. I'll never shake the feeling of listening to trees pop for days around the house 9 days without power and when it came back on the mattresses in the house and mom's Murphy Oil was frozen.
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That would not be good, if we get mostly freezing rain! Actually this would be worst case scenario.
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The UKMET is UGLY and it ain't got no alibi...plows straight through the wedge, we are one step away from a squall line.
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18z NAM says, I am going start a pep rally Friday morning for the big game on Saturday. Like what the heck is the NAM thinking??
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12z Euro kuchera
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We always have to thread the needle. I do feel like we will see a flatter weaker system over the next day or two and then, I feel like on Thursday models beef back up again. Right now you have to stick with ensembles and the GEFS have not moved much from each other the past few runs. Ens over OP for the next two days.
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I can't remember a storm here in HKY where we were in the upper teens with zr my suspicion would be mostly IP over ZR, but again depends on where you are.
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Yeah that's because it was a little weaker with precip amounts, moisture was not as heavy during the heart of the storm as 6z. Verbatim it was a tad weaker and south.
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It was north of the op, but it actually was a little further south and weaker than 6z GEFS.
