WXNewton

I had terrible service earlier and couldn't get anything to load, I hate posting stuff like that without a map, glad you found it!

12z GEFS had a good uptick in totals especially back to the west.

The latest RAP keeps bringing moisture in further West each run. Tries to bring some snow right up the escarpment just after midnight.

6z GFS and ensembles show a significant improvement in the amount of moisture across the entire state.

6z Nam back west, snow breaking out all the way into the foothills.

GFS is backing that thing up...

Just an observation on both the GFS and Euro that might still give a little hope for some on Sunday. If you trend either one of them back to yesterday morning they were showing very little to almost zero moisture for the first disturbance that is currently pushing through TN and KY. The radar at the moment is way more robust than what those models were showing 36 hrs ago, the most recent runs now depict that moisture really well. I believe we will see something very similar with Sunday's precip as we get through tomorrow's run and get within 8- 12 hrs of any potential moisture.

Another storm I felt like locked in a long time out was the big foothills crusher of Dec 18th 2009. Felt like it didn't change much and the Jan 30 2010. Man what a winter that was! Just got goosebumps looking at the radar from Dec 09 storm. Happy Friday!

I think what it comes down to with this storm is the flow is too fast. Not enough time for the vort to really strengthen within the longwave trough. Most ppl don't understand how close this is from being a classic snowstorm and a dud. The line between the two options is really thin. Say it again...where is the blocking when you need it!

12z NAM throws away the last bit of hope. Much further east, some snow in parts of S.GA and S.SC. 3KM is a little better but still east with much of the precip and some slop in Central and Eastern NC

I was just looking through ensembles and thought the same thing. Let's get plenty of rest in the mean time and hope we are tracking something significant in the latter half of the month!

6z GEFS beefs totals back up over Southern GA and into FL panhandle.

18z RDPS further West with more moisture, but too warm at the surface for most east of 77.

And EPS... unfortunately it's locked in with both OPs. However, I will say there was a storm in 2017 in December where the globals kept the wave flatter and to the east right up until go time, and actually the hrrr and NAM were one of the first to show the moisture way more expansive. All and All though, Euro is concerning.

Small details make all the difference, the energy was a little flatter on 6z GFS and that really affected the outcome. If only it could look like the 6z Nam, that's the best case, neutral/neg a lot sooner.

Wish this was a lot closer and not the 84hr NAM, was about to be a nice hit!

Big jump!

Stick with ensembles...let's see how the agree with OP run.

Heck of a trend...last four runs of GFS...it can slow down now on NW shift.

18z Euro trended more towards GFS and the biggest difference over 12z, it goes neutral faster, placement is about the same. Another tick or two like that, I believe we will see significant increase in precip on the surface maps to come.

This is going to be the first piece of energy coming down that reinforces the cold air on Saturday into Sunday. The energy in discussion is still towards the West diving down behind this first piece.

Mark it down, someone is going to get NAM'ed tomorrow!

The 12z EPS and GEFS are pretty much identically overlaid on top of each other with the same amount of coverage, the subtle difference seems to be the overall strength and intensity of the storm more so than the track. So I think the question at this point is how does the storm evolve as far as strength and does the wave come out flat or does it become more neutral and neg tilt that will make the difference in accumulations. Confidence is there that we will see an area of low-pressure track across the Gulf, but how strong does it get?

Big jump on 12z GEFS, agrees fairly well with OP.

Energy def. trending deeper into the Gulf and better organized!