WXNewton

Also ICON had it on the 12z run, it goes out further. So pretty much all globals and they have support from their ens.

Light snow falling in Newton

I agree somewhat, but I have also witnessed a few storms first hand that did not start out cold and were some doozies. We had an ice storm in 94 where temps were near 60 that day and by the next morning we had a nightmare of a storm with freezing rain and several inches of sleet. However, with that said, yes it's best to have the cold first but not impossible, just makes timing harder if it's not in place.

Ensembles support this too on both GFS and Euro.

From my cousin in Greensboro GA just NE of Macon. VID_20260118_083052.mp4

VID_20260118_081626~2.mp4 From my father-in-law in Destin FL. Two years in a row now we are getting skunked by parts of FL.

Just confirmed that it is snowing on the Gulf Coast again. Father-in-law is just outside of Pensacola and it's coming down good he said.

I had terrible service earlier and couldn't get anything to load, I hate posting stuff like that without a map, glad you found it!

12z GEFS had a good uptick in totals especially back to the west.

The latest RAP keeps bringing moisture in further West each run. Tries to bring some snow right up the escarpment just after midnight.

6z GFS and ensembles show a significant improvement in the amount of moisture across the entire state.

6z Nam back west, snow breaking out all the way into the foothills.

GFS is backing that thing up...

Just an observation on both the GFS and Euro that might still give a little hope for some on Sunday. If you trend either one of them back to yesterday morning they were showing very little to almost zero moisture for the first disturbance that is currently pushing through TN and KY. The radar at the moment is way more robust than what those models were showing 36 hrs ago, the most recent runs now depict that moisture really well. I believe we will see something very similar with Sunday's precip as we get through tomorrow's run and get within 8- 12 hrs of any potential moisture.

Another storm I felt like locked in a long time out was the big foothills crusher of Dec 18th 2009. Felt like it didn't change much and the Jan 30 2010. Man what a winter that was! Just got goosebumps looking at the radar from Dec 09 storm. Happy Friday!

I think what it comes down to with this storm is the flow is too fast. Not enough time for the vort to really strengthen within the longwave trough. Most ppl don't understand how close this is from being a classic snowstorm and a dud. The line between the two options is really thin. Say it again...where is the blocking when you need it!

12z NAM throws away the last bit of hope. Much further east, some snow in parts of S.GA and S.SC. 3KM is a little better but still east with much of the precip and some slop in Central and Eastern NC

I was just looking through ensembles and thought the same thing. Let's get plenty of rest in the mean time and hope we are tracking something significant in the latter half of the month!

6z GEFS beefs totals back up over Southern GA and into FL panhandle.

18z RDPS further West with more moisture, but too warm at the surface for most east of 77.

And EPS... unfortunately it's locked in with both OPs. However, I will say there was a storm in 2017 in December where the globals kept the wave flatter and to the east right up until go time, and actually the hrrr and NAM were one of the first to show the moisture way more expansive. All and All though, Euro is concerning.

Small details make all the difference, the energy was a little flatter on 6z GFS and that really affected the outcome. If only it could look like the 6z Nam, that's the best case, neutral/neg a lot sooner.

Wish this was a lot closer and not the 84hr NAM, was about to be a nice hit!

Big jump!

Stick with ensembles...let's see how the agree with OP run.