WXNewton
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Everything posted by WXNewton
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GEFS is going to be a bit north of OP, but further south than 12z GEFS. Heaviest totals appear to be lining up right down I40 from West to East. Also seems to be step for step with 12z EPS. Regardless, this run is going to be big for many!
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Does anyone have snow maps for 18z AI GFS? Looks like it had a stout second piece of energy.
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The ICON ensembles do not support that far of a south jog on the OP, they are very much in line with euro and GFS. Verbatim, continues the theme of a significant winter storm.
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If you told the average person what we are witnessing on the models today they would think we are absolutely on drugs, this is like watching a potentially historic event take shape and we are the keepers of the news.
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Temps to go with it...It's hard to put much stock into it seeing how much it shifted since last night though. GFS seems way more consistent so far. That would not be good either way throwing that type of precip over low 20 surface temps in the Piedmont.
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12z UKMET much further south than 0z, still tries to run low into heart of the CAD, regardless of trying to do that, it's an absolute mess of a storm across much of NC and would be bad in many ways!
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I was just getting ready to say that coming in further south this run.
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I think if you look at the ensembles from the Euro and GFS they are pretty much in agreement with each other at this point as far as snowfall totals go. Once we get in the 48-hour range, I would almost bet whatever the EPS shows you can about take it to the bank.
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The thought of someone getting NAM'ed starting tomorrow night makes it start to feel even more real.
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6z ICOn was setting up nicely too.
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6z EPS also increased totals further south when compared to 0z for the hr 144 timeframe. Keep in mind there was more to come after this.
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6z EPS temps during the heart of the storm
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6z EPS was looking good! Still had plenty to go after that, and temps were locked in to the low 20s and teens!
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That would be devastating, most of the precip falls between 21-26 degrees. Pull for sleet if that's the case. All temps on all models during the heart of storm now are locked in to the low 20s. So temps seem to be one thing that is really starting to set in place. This seems to be a classic full on wedge and a lot of times those will get even stronger as the models get closer. Regardless the temps that are currently being modeled are something we have not seen in a long time with a potential storm coming in.
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I think at this point we still put 100% stock in ensembles and EPS and GEFS is keeping everything south. I'd like to see individual members if anyone has them.
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6z GEFS, 6hr precip. This gives you a good idea of precip location and movement.
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6z GEFS temps through out the heart of the storm.
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00z EPS ... Also appears to be a colder run than 12z EPS.
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GEFS...
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Looks like the AI GFS tries to do the same thing. I don't buy the UKMET sending the low right up the Apps into a banana high setup like that. I've seen the models try do that many times over the years and typically what happens is it hits the wedge then comes down and around it or could Miller-B to the coast.
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I haven't seen anyone mention the UKMET yet, but it was a big hit today on 12z too. We will see if it follows up again tonight, but I cannot remember another time where pretty much every model showed such a similar situation 5-6 days out.
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Actually transitions to a pretty nasty ice storm and some snow for most of SC, temps go down into the the low 20s.
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At this stage I'd say storm sign is there and let's focus on ensembles, these runs are definitely going to change North and south this far out, but signal looks great.
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I believe the Feb 11-13 storm of 2014 was picked up on early too.
