WXNewton

Heck of a trend...last four runs of GFS...it can slow down now on NW shift.

18z Euro trended more towards GFS and the biggest difference over 12z, it goes neutral faster, placement is about the same. Another tick or two like that, I believe we will see significant increase in precip on the surface maps to come.

This is going to be the first piece of energy coming down that reinforces the cold air on Saturday into Sunday. The energy in discussion is still towards the West diving down behind this first piece.

Mark it down, someone is going to get NAM'ed tomorrow!

The 12z EPS and GEFS are pretty much identically overlaid on top of each other with the same amount of coverage, the subtle difference seems to be the overall strength and intensity of the storm more so than the track. So I think the question at this point is how does the storm evolve as far as strength and does the wave come out flat or does it become more neutral and neg tilt that will make the difference in accumulations. Confidence is there that we will see an area of low-pressure track across the Gulf, but how strong does it get?

Big jump on 12z GEFS, agrees fairly well with OP.

Energy def. trending deeper into the Gulf and better organized!

Totally agree, I think if you look at ens. right now on both GFS and Euro, go right in the middle of the heaviest predicted totals and that's where we will see bulk of the storm. I hate being on the outskirts, but that's what it's looking like. Need some blocking, get that wave slowed down and developed more then we would be game. Also, the NAM will save us at some point!

Add WXNEWTON to that too, going to ruin my week if we don't get some shifting to the NW. Reminds me too much of last year, hopefully those train tracks change soon!

18z GFS was a step in the right direction, more digging and separation, looked really close to being a lot more for Sunday. Maybe ens will start to pick up.

Just curious what is everyone's dream snow day? For me it would be sitting under the lean-to with a brisket or some ribs on the smoker with a glass of bourbon and a cigar, wood stove going in the building and pouring snow! Look at the radar and it's stacked all the way to New Orleans with a slow rotation the North and East and Winter Storm Warnings are up by NWS to 12-16". Book it!

I thought exact same thing, I think once we get Thursday's system out of here, the models can handle that wave better. Here's the Euro trend over the past 6 runs, definitely digging the wave further West and deeper each run. A little more tilt and further digging, this thing could look pretty nice IMO.

12z EPS is actually a slight increase from 6z on Thursday's potential.

12z GFS Ens. definitely upticked on both Thursday's storm and Sunday's.

Wow, that prevent defense at the end was something...If only we can score a winter storm as easy as the Rams did at the end.

Light snow here in Newton kind of a pixie dust look.

From a good friend of mine in Fleetwood, Ashe County!

Definitely some wet flakes mixing in now in Newton.

https://www.resortcams.com/webcams/blowing-rock/ The webcam out of Blowing Rock is simply amazing with the snow in the trees.

I miss my house up in Ashe County on days like today. I had good elevation in the area I was in and also cashed in being closer to VA sometimes. I might have to go land hunting soon and build another one.

From my cousin in Todd.

33.3

18z UKMET has a storm too at the very end, temps are marginal outside of the mountains, but not too far off.

I might be wrong here, but I feel like the Dec 2018 storm definitely had some enhanced right around the escarpment.

Another great storm that was totally overlooked on all the local news stations was back in Jan 22-23 of 2003. Anyone else remember this one? I remember that we only had advisory's posted for 1-2" and then the storm formed a lee-side trough and snowfall was greatly enhanced in the western part of the state. The classic radar on the Weather Channel " Local on the eights" just seemed to stall the moisture over us, I remember Eric Thomas ending the late night news by saying folks, we have some updated models that just came in and these 1-2 inches totals are more than likely going to be much greater than we originally expected. Not long after that Winter Storm Warnings were post for 6-10." Was a cold storm too, temps in low 20s.