WXNewton

Congrats upstate SC that run and east of 85, def. trended more suppressed south and east. Earlier on in the run upper level went neutral faster but actually went negative later than 18z did. 18z map on the bottom, trend towards Euro that run. This has been the trend for 2 weeks now.

00z GFS cutting upper level low even earlier this run @ hr 69 its already cutoff as it's rolling through TX. Trough axis going more neutral earlier too, might be a good run.

hr 84 on NAM has the same bowling ball upper level low as GFS digging through N. Louisiana and S. Arkansas. If that run would continue I think it would bring some good energy under the mountains.

18z GFS tracks the upper level low very similar to the March 1st 2009 storm that really hammered Western NC, especially from SBY-HKY-GSO. If that trends continues the upper-level low could become the main show. These type of events can leave some with very little while just a few miles away others really cash in. Like others have mentioned on here, small adjustments in how all this energy interacts is going to play havoc on the models for a few days.

17 here in Newton around 7:30-8 this morning.

Mixing in with the rain 50/50 here in Newton.

Brighter band in Catawba County is turning to snow.

The FV3 is laying the smack down with that band over Catawba, Lincoln, and Gaston Counties.

Anyone have 6z Euro, curious to see if it had same axis of snow in Piedmont?

So Hrrr, Rap, 3km Nam, Euro all showing heaviest snow axis running up and down basically I77. I'd say that area right now is looking to have the best shot for several inches. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

RAP Model also showing similar setup to Hrrr with meso low and banding.

For what is worth the 6z HRRR showed a very similar setup as Euro with rotating a band of moisture through the Foothills and NW Piedmont into Upstate SC. It too is trying to pop a low under the foot of the mountains. I know it's the HRRR at long range but definitely something to keep an eye on for folks around 77 and 85 corridor.

I am right here with you! You know from being in this area if we get a meso low to form just under the mountains into the upstate we will be in business. The models have a very hard time depicting that small scale feature and if it happens it can wreck a forecast in a heartbeat. I remember the Jan storm of 2003 and watching Eric Thomas break in with upgraded winter storm warnings and upping our advisory totals from 2-3" to 6-10". Also remember the old weather channel radar just pivot on top of the foothills and piedmont and basically snow all night.

In Catawba County for that one! One of my all time favorite snowstorms. Rain/sleet mix all day at 34-37 degrees, then around 6:30 p.m. the bowling ball rolled through. Went to heavy snow and this was the first time I got to experience thunder and lightning. Moisture pulled out about 11 p.m. and trees were bent to the ground with a very heavy 8-10". That storm was amazing and one of the reasons I love tracking winter weather! Also remember a deform band rotating through Catawba County when I lived in Sherrills Ford along about 2012-2013. Showed for 1.5 hours and measured 3-4". I remember the flakes were so big that traffic stopped in the middle of Sherrills Ford Rd and people were getting out of their cars to watch it.

I'd have to go back and look but just glancing out that, looks very similar to where the Christmas storm of 2010 rolled through the 4 corners region.

Thought I saw a snowflake in Newton, but could just be my eyes playing tricks on me from staying up all night watching the models.

12z FV3 looks nice.

I like the look of precip starting to streak through the ATL area. I know this is probably not hitting the ground but it does seem to be building in intensity. No model has that moisture that far north. Maybe something to watch for light snow to breakout in parts of WNC later this afternoon.

Timing and moisture placement by GFS, NAM, RGEM, Canadian @hr 72, pretty good agreement compared to everything else we've seen today.

GFS trending further west over the past 3 runs. We had a significant winter storm across much of the state on Jan 17, 2018 that reminds me of this setup. Seemed like the GFS trended further west with the moisture each run right up until go time and the NAM captured a much more organized system before the globals caught on. https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=627

I wouldn't say our chances are quickly dwindling, GEFS mean has went from just over 2" last night to over 4" at 12z today. I think this thing has a ways to go before it is written off for anyone.

This^^ absolutely the best way to summarize things, state what we know and allow models to sort through these moving parts. Everything will become more clear tomorrow and tomorrow night. Also ICON looked to be more in the EURO, NAM camp.

18z GFS clearly backing up moisture towards the NW when trended several runs @ hr 78. Cannot post the GIF for some reason, but there is definitely more moisture each run. If that trend continues I would picture it to look similar to the Canadian and Euro.

70/30 Sleet/Snow in Newton

About 4" now in Newton, absolutely pouring right now. 22.8/21