WXNewton
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The thought of someone getting NAM'ed starting tomorrow night makes it start to feel even more real.
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6z ICOn was setting up nicely too.
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6z EPS also increased totals further south when compared to 0z for the hr 144 timeframe. Keep in mind there was more to come after this.
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6z EPS temps during the heart of the storm
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6z EPS was looking good! Still had plenty to go after that, and temps were locked in to the low 20s and teens!
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That would be devastating, most of the precip falls between 21-26 degrees. Pull for sleet if that's the case. All temps on all models during the heart of storm now are locked in to the low 20s. So temps seem to be one thing that is really starting to set in place. This seems to be a classic full on wedge and a lot of times those will get even stronger as the models get closer. Regardless the temps that are currently being modeled are something we have not seen in a long time with a potential storm coming in.
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I think at this point we still put 100% stock in ensembles and EPS and GEFS is keeping everything south. I'd like to see individual members if anyone has them.
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6z GEFS, 6hr precip. This gives you a good idea of precip location and movement.
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6z GEFS temps through out the heart of the storm.
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00z EPS ... Also appears to be a colder run than 12z EPS.
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GEFS...
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Looks like the AI GFS tries to do the same thing. I don't buy the UKMET sending the low right up the Apps into a banana high setup like that. I've seen the models try do that many times over the years and typically what happens is it hits the wedge then comes down and around it or could Miller-B to the coast.
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I haven't seen anyone mention the UKMET yet, but it was a big hit today on 12z too. We will see if it follows up again tonight, but I cannot remember another time where pretty much every model showed such a similar situation 5-6 days out.
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Icon
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Actually transitions to a pretty nasty ice storm and some snow for most of SC, temps go down into the the low 20s.
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At this stage I'd say storm sign is there and let's focus on ensembles, these runs are definitely going to change North and south this far out, but signal looks great.
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I believe the Feb 11-13 storm of 2014 was picked up on early too.
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Also ICON had it on the 12z run, it goes out further. So pretty much all globals and they have support from their ens.
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Light snow falling in Newton
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I agree somewhat, but I have also witnessed a few storms first hand that did not start out cold and were some doozies. We had an ice storm in 94 where temps were near 60 that day and by the next morning we had a nightmare of a storm with freezing rain and several inches of sleet. However, with that said, yes it's best to have the cold first but not impossible, just makes timing harder if it's not in place.
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Ensembles support this too on both GFS and Euro.
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From my cousin in Greensboro GA just NE of Macon. VID_20260118_083052.mp4
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VID_20260118_081626~2.mp4 From my father-in-law in Destin FL. Two years in a row now we are getting skunked by parts of FL.
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Just confirmed that it is snowing on the Gulf Coast again. Father-in-law is just outside of Pensacola and it's coming down good he said.
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I had terrible service earlier and couldn't get anything to load, I hate posting stuff like that without a map, glad you found it!
