WXNewton
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Southern Crippler - Get well soon Jimbo Storm Obs
WXNewton replied to BooneWX's topic in Southeastern States
Light sleet in Newton 31.8/12 -
12z NAM playing catch-up, starting to finally show a tap of moisture from the Gulf early on this run. Going to be juicy this run!
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Southern Crippler - Get well soon Jimbo Storm Obs
WXNewton replied to BooneWX's topic in Southeastern States
IMBY-31.8/17 -
I haven't been this exhausted since the Christmas Day storm! Best sleep of my life after it was over.
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I'd give up 7-8 winters with basically zero snow for a solution like that...Oh wait it's already been 7-8 winters without anything major. Check please!
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I think it was actually a little less precip that run.
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I was going to go back and look, but it seems like the little storm we had last Jan, ran a low into the foot of the apps. Killed the mid-levels quickly.
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Starts in Western NC early afternoon on Saturday and should spread across the state as the night goes on. Goes through out the day Sunday and ends later Sunday evening/night. As many folks have mentioned it could start several hours earlier than expected on Sat.
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I can speak from experience here in the heart of Catawba County, MBY is typically one of the last to see the wedge go. I've seen us stay at 31.8 before and the parent High be several hundred mile off the NE coast and it's basically just an In-situ-CAD with freezing rain. Very tough to erode here in the Catawba Valley!
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6z GEFS reinforces the wedge a little more than 00z.
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I looked very closely at this and at the very end it actually has the freezing rain ever so slightly further south than 18z and temps a touch colder.
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Euro was almost identical to 18z, the heart of the CAD actually was a touch stronger and several locations ran about 1 degree colder through most of the precip. In MBY (Hickory) we stayed below freezing for 99% of the storm and zr totals were 1.71" and the FRAM est was 1.10".
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Clearly see the low trending North over time, when does it stop is the big question...
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I was just thinking about both of these storms as possible analogs. 94 had a huge temp drop the day of the storm. The high seem to be strengthening as it moved into the VT/NH area and it anchored in place. 96 brings back some scary memories for me, listening to the pines pop around the house for days and near zero after was no fun. We lost power for 8 days and the mattresses were frozen stiff by the time power was restored. During the 94 storm Neil Bonnet died at Daytona.
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The surface temps were running a few degrees colder than 12z for sure.
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15z SREFs have trended overall precip back south when compared to 9z. I have a feeling 18z runs will follow that move back south to some degree.
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I feel like this GIF should have some techno music to it.
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GEFS precip has really remained pretty solid and consistent in the same location over the past two days. It's either going to be consistently wrong or right lol.
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CMC seemed to have brought the wedge in stronger than 0z run. We know more times than not, that once we get into the 24 hr frame on a wedge setup like this the models tend to deepen it even more, do you agree with that thinking still?
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Looking over GFS and Canadian for HKY area GFS: Roughly 4-5 inches of snow 2-3" of IP and 1/4" of zr. Canadian: 4-5" of IP and 1/2" of zr.
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12z Canadian drives the wedge deeper than 0z and pushes sleet/fz rain further south this run during the heart of the precip.
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12z ICON temps throughout the storm.
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12z ICON is a tad north of 6z, major ice storm for all of NC
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I think what we will see is the GFS make very very small moves towards the Euro, and I think we will see the Euro make very very small moves back towards the GFS. Ultimately, I think we'll find something in between the two.
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I also get Feb 96 vibes from this especially with the extreme cold after. I'll never shake the feeling of listening to trees pop for days around the house 9 days without power and when it came back on the mattresses in the house and mom's Murphy Oil was frozen.
